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In this trade proposal, the New York Knicks land their star with hopes it helps them in the 2021 free agency.
The Oklahoma City Thunder get back a young power forward and a pair of draft picks.
The proposal:
Thunder receive: Julius Randle, 2021 first-round pick (via Dallas Mavericks), 2023 top-7 protected first-round pick
Knicks receive: Chris Paul
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Why the Thunder do it
Oklahoma City needs a new power forward with Danilo Gallinari likely to leave in free agency, and Randle is a player the team can look at to see if he fits into the future.
Randle is a talented scorer. There’s no denying it. From Dec. 11 through March 11, the final 40 games of the season, he averaged more than 21 points per game. He also averaged more than 10 rebounds.
But he shot 46% from the field, 27.7% from 3 and has a tendency to overlook passes in favor of taking it to the rim himself. He also does not play good defense.
I don’t like calling players good stats, bad team guys, because if bad players could post 20/10s regularly, everybody would be doing it. But Randle, with a 132-262 career record (excluding his rookie year in which he played one game), has yet to show he impacts winning.
But that could be more of a system of the teams he’s played on. The Knicks are not a model franchise. His lone season with the New Orleans Pelicans was filled with Anthony Davis drama. The Los Angeles Lakers had drama of their own during his time there, all of which ended without a playoff berth.
Oklahoma City gets one year guaranteed and a second year partially guaranteed. It’s a good risk to take.
Then, the draft picks. The Dallas Mavericks’ pick is likely to be a late first-rounder. The 2023 Knicks pick is lightly protected, but if the 2021 free agency doesn’t go as New York hopes, that could easily be a lottery pick.
That 2023 pick is actually the real draw of the trade. It could be a star. Yet the Knicks may be willing to give it up because there’s a chance they land a star with Paul’s help.
Why the Knicks do it
New York, after failing to sign any of its targets last offseason, cannot go into 2021 with the same pitch. The organization needs a way to show the culture is changed. It needs to have a respected star helping pitch the team.
It needs someone like Chris Paul, who is an NBA All-Second Team player and the president of the players’ association.
That free agency class is loaded. Randle isn’t the player who will attract stars to join him.
If the Knicks don’t believe Randle is a long-term solution at power forward — and there have been rumors throughout the season that he’s a trade piece — giving him up isn’t an issue. Nor is losing the Mavericks’ 2021 pick, which should be in the late 20s. Using one of the Kristaps Porzingis picks to acquire Paul actually puts a sweeter taste in the mouth.
Knicks president Leon Rose is the former agent of Paul, so there’s a strong connection there. Paul can be a very good mentor to young players, particularly RJ Barrett.
Plus, the salary doesn’t cripple New York. Assuming the Knicks decline the options of Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson and Wayne Ellington, they’ll still have about $20 million to spend after acquiring Paul, which would go up to $27 if they do not guarantee Elfrid Payton’s full salary. Those financial figures depend on how far the salary cap drops this offseason.
About $5 million will go to the No. 8 pick and about $2 million to the No. 27 pick. That could leave the team with $20 million to spend on free agents, plus another player with the mid-level exception.
Chris Paul, RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, two first-round draft picks, one or two free agents combined at $20 million and another free agent worth about $9 million is a much better corps than what the Knicks put on the court last season … in fact, is that a playoff team in the Eastern Conference?
Why the Thunder don’t do it
As addressed above, there are a lot of question marks about Randle’s upside. His team is on the hook for $18.9 million this coming season before a year with a non-guaranteed $19.8 million. If his 2020-21 team doesn’t keep him for the following season, Randle would be on the books for $4 million in 2021-22, according to Jeff Siegel.
The team is trying to trim salary, and that’s at least $22.9 million for a power forward when they could just slide Darius Bazley into the starting lineup and be done with it.
Why the Knicks don’t do it
Apologies to Knicks fans who are about to read this sentence: Few assets are more valuable than a New York draft pick.
Though I expressed optimism the Knicks can get a star in 2021, and therefore limit how good that 2023 draft pick will be, how much confidence is there really that they can pull it off?
Trading Randle, who will be 26 next season, and taking a risk on giving up that draft pick is a lot to ask in exchange for an $85 million, 35-year-old point guard.
If Paul helps them fight for a playoff spot and get another star, the trade worked wonderfully. If not, they may lose a lottery pick.
Who says no?
I think the Knicks want Chris Paul and I think this is a simple way to get it done. Ultimately, though, I think giving away that 2023 pick scares them off. Maybe they could interest the Thunder in Knox instead of the pick (I personally would not be interested in Knox instead of the pick).
One coworker I approached with this idea said the Knicks should do the deal in a heartbeat, even if it was only top-5 protected. Another said he would do it if it were top-10 instead of top-7.
We’ll leave it at top-7, and maybe the Knicks can negotiate it down to 10 with the Thunder having rights to a future pick if they end up with a pick better than 10 in 2023.