By now, you’ve probably gone into the depths — and maybe even the abyss — looking at forecasts and predictions of which athletic programs could join the Big Ten if it decides to expand further. And it’s not unrealistic with comments that were made recently by conference commissioner Kevin Warren to think that there are more teams that will get added in the future.
Since the shocking news of UCLA and USC joining the Big Ten hit the news cycle while I was on a cruise ship trying to take a vacation with Mickey Mouse, seemingly everyone has an opinion on what happens next. Heck, we even got into the action once I got my sea legs back on dry land.
However, it’s one thing to eyeball things and make an opinion, it’s another to use analytical data to try and figure it all out.
And that … is why we love FiveThirtyEight. We follow the popular analytics website during the college football season to see which teams have a greater chance of making the College Football Playoff, but now Nate Silver has gotten into the act by crunching the numbers to determine which schools are the best fit for the Big Ten.
The method used has a long explanation that you can check out for yourself, but basically, it’s based on athletic performance, fit, and market in both football and basketball among 38 Power Five schools that are taken into account. Point ratings are given for most recent success as well as total national titles in both sports, with it weighted more heavily towards football.
The results might be a little surprising in some cases, while others are the same schools we’ve heard bantered about in the news.
Here is a look at the top ten best candidates for programs to expand further into the Big Ten in the future courtesy of FiveThirtyEight.