The last time the Rockets rolled into San Francisco, the Warriors defeated Houston on Christmas day, 116-104. The December upset was a highlight in Golden State’s down year. In a rematch of Christmas day’s dandy following the All-Star break, both the Warriors and Rockets have undergone wholesale changes.
The Golden State Warriors moved six players at the NBA trade deadline in a complete transformation of their roster. Three of Golden State’s starters from Christmas day are in new cities.
While the Rockets didn’t completely blow up their roster, they did modify their rotation. Houston traded center Clint Capela to Atlanta in a multi-team deal where they acquired Robert Covington from the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Rockets now play a new brand of small ball hoops without a center.
To help understand the updated Houston Rockets style, Warriors Wire caught up with Ben DuBose, editor-in-chief of our sister site, Rockets Wire.
Here are three questions with Rockets Wire:
1) What’s changed since they last met?
The Rockets will play and look very different than they did on Christmas Day. At that time, Russell Westbrook was shooting over five 3-pointers per game on average, and he was making an awful percentage at less than 25% of them. In that road loss, Westbrook was 0-of-8 from behind the arc, and Houston scored just 36 points in the second half.
Since then, the turnaround for Westbrook and the Rockets (34-20) — who enter having won five of their last seven — isn’t because Westbrook suddenly got hot from long range. Rather, he just stopped shooting them altogether. Westbrook leads the league in drives by a large margin since Jan. 1, and Houston’s trade of big man Clint Capela and subsequent switch to a smaller lineup has opened up more driving lanes. Since Jan. 18, he’s averaged only 1.5 shots per game from 3-point range.
The ongoing question is whether the advantages on offense from “small ball” are offset by new problems on defense. To this point, it’s been a mixed bag. In wins over the Lakers and Celtics, when the Rockets were fully motivated, they were only out-rebounded by an average of two per game. But in a blowout loss at Phoenix (in fairness, Westbrook didn’t play), the Suns out-rebounded them by 22. Against lesser opponents, Houston has to take games seriously, or else their size issues with starting a 6-foot-5 P.J. Tucker at center could lead to a big problem on the glass.
2) What will it take for each team to win?
If both teams play their best, the Rockets are better. That’s clear in the records. However, it’s a more dangerous game for Houston than it might first appear.
As we saw Christmas, even if the current players (Draymond Green excluded) aren’t the same for Golden State as the last two postseasons, the rivalry still exists. The Warriors will treat it like a playoff game, especially with it being on national TV at home and after a layoff of more than a week. Everyone will be rested.
The question is whether Houston matches that intensity. If there are any lulls in focus, any problems can easily be exacerbated due to their lack of size. Even if the Rockets have more skilled offensive players, that might not matter if they’re out-rebounded by 20. And since Houston has a much more important game at Utah on Saturday, it wouldn’t be a shock if they’re looking ahead. The key is to show the maturity to learn from what happened on Christmas and respect the game and opponent. If they do that and are at least competitive on the glass, they should have too much firepower with Westbrook and James Harden.
It’s also important to start quickly. Though the Rockets scored 68 first-half points on Dec. 25, they allowed 64 — which let the younger Warriors hang around and gain confidence.
3) Is there anything else we should know about the matchup, or the Warriors?
While Westbrook has surged of late, averaging 34 points on 53% shooting since Jan. 8, it’s been much more of a mixed bag for Harden. Over that same period, Harden has scored 29.1 points per game on just 37.6% shooting (29.1% on 3-pointers). He showed some signs of improvement before the All-Star break, with three 40-point performances in his final six games, but nothing like the extended run of dominance that he was on when the Rockets and Warriors met on Christmas.
Aside from rebounding and intensity, the top tactical question Thursday is how successful the Warriors will be at denying Harden and Westbrook on drives. That’s one thing they did very well on Christmas, when Harden shot a season-low one free throw and took 10 of his 18 shots from behind the 3-point arc. For Westbrook, the eight 3-point attempts were his second-highest all year.
On paper, that formula shouldn’t be repeatable this time around, since the Rockets have replaced the role of a traditional center (Capela) with that of a shooter. In turn, that makes it harder for help defenders to sag back into the paint. But it’s also worth noting that Steve Kerr has had over a week to draw up a very Houston-specific game plan. If he can find ways to again limit the drives and free throws, then Harden’s inconsistent 3-point shooting of late could be a concern.