NFC North
Chicago Bears: Someone to get them over Mitchell Trubisky
When the Rams gave Jared Goff a four-year contract extension last September worth $134 million in new money over four years, I made the argument that when you have a quarterback who has not proven that he can transcend scheme, you may want to avoid making him your franchise quarterback in a financial sense. That said, Goff has done more than Mitchell Trubisky throughout his career, and Trubisky — who finished 28th in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted, season-cumulative efficiency metrics last season — now leaves the Bears with a number of interesting decisions.
Chicago has until May to pick up Trubisky’s fifth-year option, and they’ve gone all-in on the former second overall pick’s potential with a group of new coaches (Bill Lazor as the new offensive coordinator, John DeFilippo as the quarterbacks coach, and former quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone promoted to passing game coordinator) along with head coach and offensive shot-caller Matt Nagy to make the most out of whatever Trubisky is. So far, Trubisky has been a quarterback slow to read defenses and to execute his own offense. When you have a great defense and a short window with which to win with it, losing that battle at the altar of a middling quarterback is a fool’s errand. The Bears have been dealing with that particular paradigm for decades; you’d think they’d figure it out sooner than later.
Detroit Lions: A quality secondary they’ll actually keep
Lions head coach and Ostensible Defensive Genius Matt Patricia has spoken a lot about creating a culture during his two full seasons as Detroit’s head coach, during which he’s compiled a 9-22-1 record. Patricia has aspired to have the right kind of pass defense, which in Patricia’s case involves playing more man coverage than any other team in the league last season (54% of all defensive snaps, just ahead of the Patriots), and dumping the guys who can help him do that effectively. Trading safety Quandre Diggs to the Seahawks mid-season did nothing more than drop Detroit’s pass defense from 23rd to 31st in the second half of the season in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics, and annoy all of Diggs’ former teammates.
This one hit me bra😢 https://t.co/coKjDwUrTq
— Darius Slay (@_bigplayslay23) October 22, 2019
Now, aforementioned cornerback Darius Slay, the team’s best remaining coverage defender, is on the trade block as well.
Lions have spoken with multiple teams about a potential trade for Pro Bowl CB Darius Slay, per sources. Any team that trades for Slay would have to compensate Detroit and Slay with a new deal. Other teams believe Slay will be traded this off-season, but Lions adamant on value.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) February 17, 2020
Slay is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2020 season; it’s quite possible that if Patricia doesn’t get back some semblance of consistency in his defense, he might be on the block, too.
Green Bay Packers: Help for Davante Adams
Last season was Aaron Rodgers’ first under a head coach not named Mike McCarthy, unless you want to count Joe Philbin’s four-game interim stretch at the end of the 2018 season, which Rodgers probably doens’t. But with new head coach Matt LaFleur on board, the Packers experienced a rebirth in their run game, schematic diversity, and overall balance. It took Rodgers a bit of time to get on pace with the structure, but given his 26-touchdown, four-interception performance in 2019, it’s safe to say Rodgers still has enough left in the tank.
What Rodgers doesn’t have is a receiver to provide a complementary force to Davante Adams, one of the league’s best targets. Last season, Adams caught 83 passes on 127 targets for 997 yards and five touchdowns. Not groundbreaking stuff, but a long way from any other receiver on LaFleur’s roster. Running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams finished second and third in receptions, and tight end Jimmy Graham (who is not expected back with the team) finished fourth. Allen Lazard finished second among actual receivers with 35 catches on 52 targets for 477 yards and three touchdowns. That the team was able to go 13-3 without a complete receiver corps, and a future Hall of Fame quarterback getting used to a new system, makes one wonder what’s possible in 2020.
Minnesota Vikings: Boundary cornerbacks
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has been one of the NFL’s best defensive minds for a very long time, and given his history of teaching cornerbacks to be great, it must have been incredibly frustrating for Zimmer to watch Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes, his two primary boundary cornerbacks, allow 129 receptions on 169 targets for 1,498 yards, 10 touchdowns (five each), and one interception (Waynes). Waynes is an upcoming free agent; at the scouting combine, Zimmer said that Waynes is “a great kid — works hard, very good tackler. He’s got great speed. I hope none of the guys are as good when we draft them as when they leave. I hope they all get better with coaching and intelligence and things like that. But Trae’s a great guy; we hope to get him back and we’ll see what happens.”
What also happens in 2020 is that Rhodes presents a $12.9 million cap hit in 2020, and he hasn’t been an above-average cornerback since about 2017. Mackensie Alexander, primarily the team’s slot defender, is a free agent in 2020, so Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman have that to deal with — not to mention the fact that safety Anthony Harris is also set to test free agency — and will get a king’s ransom when he does so. Zimmer’s secondary is about to become quite different, whether he likes it or not.