The Athletic predicts Florida football’s win totals for 2023

The Athletic’s Austin Mock took a look at the Southeastern Conference and projected win totals for each of the 14 member schools.

The start of the 2023 college football season is still several weeks away but the summer doldrums have the fans and media alike salivating in anticipation for the first kickoff. As the opening date approaches, things are becoming more and more clear with teams finalizing their rosters and anointing their next starting lineups.

Ahead of the action, The Athletic’s Austin Mock took a look at the Southeastern Conference and projected win totals for each of the 14 member schools, including the Florida Gators. While nobody thinks that the Orange and Blue will tear up the gridiron this fall, Mock is a bit more pessimistic than most — including objective metrics such as ESPN’s SP+ rankings.

According to Mock, Florida will finish the season No. 12 in the SEC with 5.5 expected wins, a 0.2% chance of winning the conference title and a 50.5% chance of winning six — the same number of wins the program has earned over the past consecutive two seasons — or more games.

Note that expected wins is the average win total over The Athletic’s model simulations, while the conference title value is determined by how often the team won the SEC title game, and chances of winning more than six games based on how often the team gained bowl eligibility.

Only the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Vanderbilt Commodores project worse than the Gators, respectively. Although MSU’s XWINS value is a bit higher at 5.9 its chances of a conference title is 0.1%.

The Gators open up their 2023 schedule on the road against the Utah Utes on Aug. 31, with a kickoff time of 8 p.m. EDT set.

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