The Monday news that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs agreed to a 10-year contract extension worth $450 million (though we wait to see what the voidable years look like) comes as no surprise. Mahomes, as the 2018 NFL MVP and reigning Super Bowl MVP, is the most impactful player in the NFL today, and he plays the game’s most important position. $45 million per year in raw average shoots Mahomes past Russell Wilson’s $35 million per year based on Wilson’s four-year, $140 million contract extension signed in April, 2019. It’s the biggest contract on its face in sports history, and unless you’re a fan of another AFC West team and you’d rather that Mahomes wasn’t in the league at all, it’s hard to argue that it’s a relative bargain.
Given the nature of increasing broadcast deals, which are tied to the player percentage of revenue and thus the annual salary cap, Mahomes won’t be the last guy to benefit financially from the new structure. In particular, two quarterbacks who ply their trade in Texas are due for some really big paydays: Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson.
And everybody knows it.
.@deshaunwatson pic.twitter.com/fEDcAG3NU8
— JJ Watt (@JJWatt) July 6, 2020
Prescott, selected by the Cowboys in the fourth round of the 2016 draft out of Mississippi State, ranks seventh among all quarterbacks with at least 1000 passing attempts since his rookie season in Net Adjusted Yards per Pass Attempt at 6.92. He ranks 10th in passer rating at 97.0, he’s tied for 10th in touchdown percentage at 4.7%, and he ranks ninth in interception percentage at 1.74%. Only Drew Brees has engineered more game-winning drives since 2016, Prescott’s completion rate of 65.81% ranks eighth in the NFL since 2016 just below Mahomes’ 65.89%, and if you’re into quarterback wins (which we’re generally not), only Tom Brady has more “wins” than Prescott’s 40, which ties him with Wilson since 2016.
The Cowboys placed the franchise tag on Prescott, and he signed the tender in late June. It’s a one-year deal which gives Prescott a fully-guaranteed figure of $31.409 million, and gives Dallas very little in terms of cap flexibility. Given the nature of the tag, the Cowboys have until July 15 to sign Prescott to a long-term deal in this league year. If they don’t, Jerry and Stephen Jones have to wait until 2021 with that albatross around their necks, they’ll have to address Prescott’s long-term future all over again, and if they’re not able to come to terms at that point, the cost will be even higher.
As much as Prescott has proven his worth as a franchise quarterback, it’s Deshaun Watson, the other Texas-based quarterback in our scenario, who could have an even higher value. While Prescott has plied his trade in a fairly stable offense and behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, Watson is sadly tied to the vagaries of Texans head coach and general manager Bill O’Brien’s wayward roster strategies and whacked-out ideas about player value.
Watson came into 2020 in the fourth year of the rookie deal he signed as the 12th overall pick in the 2017 draft out of Clemson. He’ll make $2,354,247 this season in base salary, prorated bonus, and roster bonus. His fifth-year option in 2021 carries a cap charge of $17.54 million, and if the Texans don’t get something done before the end of the 2021 season, Watson will either have to be tagged, or he’ll become a free agent.
Despite O’Brien’s questionable coaching and schematic tendencies, Watson ranks 10th in Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt over the last three seasons at 6.83 among quarterbacks with at least 750 passing attempts. He ranks fourth in passer rating at 101.0, he ranks third in touchdown percentage (5.9%) behind only Mahomes and Wilson, and while he ranks 20th in interception rate at 2.41%, only Wilson and Drew Brees have engineered more game-winning drives than Watson’s 10, and he ranks fifth in completion percentage (66.78, higher than Mahomes’ 65.88%).
No matter which quarterback you deem more valuable to his team, there’s no question that, in the near future, both Prescott and Watson will be able to wallpaper their mansions with $100 bills if they so choose. And to a degree, they can thank Patrick Mahomes for that.