The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4, 7-1 C-USA) and UTSA Roadrunners (11-1,7-1) are lined up for Friday’s Conference USA Championship Game. Kickoff from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas, is slated for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Western Kentucky vs. UTSA odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Western Kentucky went 1-4 over its first five games and has won seven consecutive games since. One of those four losses was a 52-46 setback against this UTSA squad Oct. 9. The Hilltoppers have averaged a robust 48.0 points per game over their last five wins. The WKU offense averages 43.3 PPG and 525.1 yards per contest; both figures rank second in the nation.
The Roadrunners were tripped up by North Texas last week. Texas-San Antonio toted an unblemished record into that game but was undone but costly turnovers, solid UNT defense, and a big run game that saw the Mean Green pile up 340 yards on the ground. That performance was against a UTSA defense that ranks 19th nationally against the run (121.3 yards per game allowed).
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Western Kentucky at UTSA odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Western Kentucky -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | UTSA +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread (ATS): Western Kentucky -3.5 (-102) | UTSA +3.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 72.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Western Kentucky at UTSA odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Western Kentucky 38, UTSA 31
Money line
The Hilltoppers are a lean here, but PASS unless you can get price of -155 or better.
Against the spread
Western Kentucky is 5-0 ATS across its last five games.
The Hilltoppers have made some defensive adjustments and have played better football over the last couple months. Some of that was WKU getting thru the Army-Indiana-Michigan State-UTSA portion of its schedule. However, in yards-per-play and available-yards comparisons, the ‘Toppers have made some incremental improvements.
Five-thousand-yard man QB Bailey Zappe — okay, the Western Kentucky quarterback has only thrown for 4,968 yards — directs a pass-first (and nearly pass-only) offense that has been clicking of late. Zappe has thrown 52 touchdown passes.
UTSA’s defense does well to create havoc but more so on running plays, and the Roadrunners have given up more than their share of explosive plays through the air. The UTSA offense is also a tad more likely to get stifled between the 40s.
TAKE WESTERN KENTUCKY -3.5 (-102) on a tight lean. A straight 3 points would be nice, but the discounted juice softens the protest.
Over/Under
The Oct. 9 meeting between these two produced 98 points and over 1,200 total yards. Figure this game being managed a bit differently and that the improvements made by the Western Kentucky defense since that first matchup help keep this one dialed back.
TAKE THE UNDER 72.5 (-108).
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