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The USC Trojans (6-0) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-2) meet Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the USC vs. Notre Dame odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Trojans fought off an upset bid from Arizona last Saturday night at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, winning 43-41 in 3 OT to stay unbeaten. However, it failed to cover for the 3rd straight outing, while cashing the Over in each of the games. That’s because USC has allowed 41 points in consecutive outings, and 28 or more points in 3 in a row.
The Fighting Irish lost that gut-wrenching game to Ohio State on the final play on Sept. 23, before going down to Duke and winning in the final minute. It hit the road for a 2nd straight game inside the ACC last week and fell to Louisville 33-20.
The Under has cashed in 3 in a row for the Irish, mainly because the offense has disappeared. After going for 41 or more points in the first 4 games, the Irish offense has averaged just 18.3 PPG, while allowing 21.3 PPG.
USC slapped the brakes on a 4-game series losing streak last season, winning 38-27 in Los Angeles. The Trojans haven’t won in South Bend since a 31-17 win on Oct. 22, 2011.
USC is No. 9 and Notre Dame is No. 21 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
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USC at Notre Dame odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 12:06 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): USC +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Notre Dame -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): USC +2.5 (-105) | Notre Dame -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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USC at Notre Dame picks and predictions
Prediction
USC 38, Notre Dame 31
Moneyline
It’s hard to believe USC (+120) is actually the underdog here. Yes, Notre Dame (-145) has had its way with the Trojans in this rivalry game in recent seasons, but USC’s offense has been on fire lately, while Notre Dame’s offense has been rather stagnant.
Yes, the Trojans cannot stop anybody, as they allowed Arizona to walk all over them at the Coliseum, and nearly come away with the upset. But USC’s offense can run with anybody, and if this turns into a track meet, I am not sure Notre Dame has the tools to make it to the finish line first.
Against the spread
While I much prefer the Trojans straight up, playing USC +2.5 (-105) isn’t a terrible play, either. I mean, Notre Dame does have a tendency to play close games lately, and it lost on the final play in regulation at home in the most recent home game. And Notre Dame did snatch a victory from Duke in the final minute of regulation, so we could see another close game with a razor-thin difference.
Over/Under
OVER 60.5 (-105) is worth a look, mainly because USC hasn’t offered up very much resistance on defense lately. Even Notre Dame’s moribund offense should come alive somewhat against the very giving Men of Troy.
And we know QB Caleb Williams and the Trojans are going to score. USC has registered 42 or more points in all 6 games to date.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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