On Thursday, USA (6 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws) visits Estadio Azteca in Mexico City to take on Mexico (6-2-3) in the final round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers. Kickoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Mexico vs. USA odds and lines, and make our best World Cup bets, picks and predictions.
Both teams are in a good position to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.
While each has totaled 21 points and sit second (USA has a leg up on goal differential) in CONCACAF behind Canada, they’ve managed those in different ways.
The USA has scored 16 and allowed 7 while Mexico has scored 14 and allowed 8. The result has been a tie the last two times these national teams met in Mexico, with a 1-1 draw in 2017 and 0-0 clean slate in 2013.
The United States beat Mexico 2-0 in their first battle Nov. 12. That game was played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati. USA had 18 shots with 5 on target and 49% possession while Mexico totaled 8 shots, 4 on target and 51% possession.
Mexico vs. USA: Odds, picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at noon ET.
- Money line: Mexico -107 (bet $107 to win $100) | USA +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Draw +220
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: +145 | U: -180)
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Prediction
Mexico 1, USMNT 1
Money line (ML)
LEAN to the DRAW (+220).
The USMNT is going to be bringing its A team to hopefully seal up its bid for the World Cup. However, while it did bring F Christian Pulisic, key M Weston McKennie will be out with injury.
With a game against Panama on March 27 and then Costa Rica on the 30th, I’m not sold that coach Gregg Berhalter is going to force his best lineup into playing a full 90 minutes.
Mexico, on the other hand, rarely gets the United States at home, so I expect its top team to take the pitch.
However, Mexico has yet to beat either the USA or Canada in World Cup Qualifying, so taking it at -107 could allow for unneeded risk given the reward.
I’d play the DRAW (+220) given both the last results in Mexico have that way.
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN to the UNDER 2.5 (-180).
There isn’t a best bet in this game, and it’s solely because of the value on this total.
Mexico’s last two WC qualifying games, and four of its last six games, have gone under 2.5 goals.
It’s not like the United States has had goal-heavy games either as five of its last six have also gone under 2.5 goals.
As for the rivalry, its last four Gold Cup or WC Qualifying matches have gone under 2.5 goals and the last two times the USA has traveled to Mexico the results have been both a draw and under 2.5 goals.
I’ll take the UNDER 2.5 (-180) given that the absence of McKennie could limit USMNT’s ability to transition, although it’s just for a lean given the price you have to pay for it.
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