UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. Baylor Bears odds predictions pick betting line spread

March Madness: UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The 14th-seeded UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (27-7) meet the No. 3 Baylor Bears (22-10) in an NCAA Tournament first-round game in Denver Friday. The contest at Ball Arena will tip off at 1:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor
odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

UC Santa Barbara swept the regular-season and tournament titles in this season’s Big West Conference play. UCSB sported that league’s most efficient offense, averaging 72.2 points per game. The Gauchos are a good shooting team and one that takes care of the ball and frequently totes it to the free-throw line. They enter this game on a 7-game win streak.

Baylor lost it regular-season finale and Big 12 Tournament opener and is just 2-4 in its last 6 games. The 11th-ranked Bears have struggled with their 2-point shooting over that stretch while their 3-point shooting (40.6% on 26.7 attempts per game over those 6 games) has continued to be Baylor’s bread and butter.

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UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:44 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: UC Santa Barbara +450 (bet $100 to win $450) | Baylor -700 (bet $700 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): UC Santa Barbara +11.5 (-112) | Baylor -11.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 143.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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UC Santa Barbara vs. Baylor picks and predictions

Prediction

Baylor 74, UC Santa Barbara 63

Moneyline

Avoid the pool of juice floating these tags. PASS.

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Against the spread

UCSB is 20-10-1 ATS and the Gauchos have not been an ATS loser since Feb. 20. Peg UC Santa Barbara as just a sliver of a lean here. The Bears are quite dangerous and can so easily flip a late 8-point lead to 14 in short order. The Gauchos would be an actionable play at +12.5 or +13.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Gauchos play at a bottom-3rd pace, and they will try to grind this game down to as few possessions as possible. They do take good enough care of the basketball to at least keep BU from 3-bombing them to death in transition.

There will be plenty of build-up by 3s and clock-stopped-1s (free throws), but look Baylor saving some in reserve for the weekend. Look for a score in the 130s.

TAKE THE UNDER 143.5 (-110).

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March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament first-round upset picks and predictions

Analyzing NCAA Tournament betting odds for Friday’s first round, with predictions and picks for the 4 best underdog bets.

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Day 2 of the NCAA Tournament brings 16 more betting opportunities and an upset or two is likely. Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines and list Friday’s best first-round upset bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Cashing in on those opportunities requires a little bit of in-game luck — a turnover here, a 4th foul there, a momentum-swinging 3-pointer made, or a key free throw on the front end of a 1-and-1. However, we can also do our best to make wise assessments when seeking out these upset possibilities. We’re looking for leverage with value plays where the win is more probable than what the public is seeing.

Below are the 4 best bets for Friday upsets.

See Top 25: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Friday’s NCAA Tournament upset picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:25 p.m. ET. All game times ET; ML = moneyline.

NC STATE +5.5 (-112) vs. Creighton – 4 p.m.

NC State is likely due some positive regression in its defensive numbers. The Wolfpack went on an 11-2 from Dec. 13-Feb. 4, and the Bluejays had a stretch that saw them go 8-0 from Jan. 14-Feb. 11. However, recent skill indicators point to NC State being closer to getting back to that level than Creighton is.

The Bluejays are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games against teams playing .600 or better basketball. Both teams have played schedules tilting toward better offensive talent, and the Under is a likable play, so look for the Wolfpack to leverage that kind of game into something quite close down the stretch.

UC SANTA BARBARA +11.5 (-105) vs. Baylor – 1:30 p.m.

UC Santa Barbara swept the regular-season and tournament titles in this season’s Big West Conference play. UCSB sported that conference’s most efficient offense, shooting 49.34% from the field (7th nationally). The Gauchos take care of the ball and frequently get to the free-throw line — and they enter this battle on a 7-game win streak.

Baylor lost its regular-season finale and Big 12 tourney opener — both to Iowa State — and is just 2-4 across its last 6 games.

UCSB was a profitable 20-10-1 ATS this season, and while an outright win is unlikely, this double-digit point spread makes the Gauchos a solid underdog play.

DRAKE (+110 ML) vs. Miami – 7:25 p.m.

This contest is a 12-5 (DU-UM) Midwest Region battle in Albany. A 12-seed has won 53 first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Miami may be getting a little too much credit coming out of a weaker-than-usual ACC. The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS under coach Jim Larrañaga in their last 7 NCAA tourney games.

Drake is 13-1 over their last 14 games and has outscored foes by an average of 14.7 points while shooting 40.9% from distance over that stretch. DU is an experienced bunch and one that plays responsible ball at both ends of the floor. Miami can sometimes struggle against teams that defend the perimeter well, and that’s a Drake strength (30.6% 3-point defense, 28th).

MONTANA STATE +8.5 (-110) vs. Kansas State – 9:40 p.m.

Peg this game as more of a “wild opportunity for a bracket run” than just a 1-time upset. There are some weak spots in the potential 2nd and 3rd games should Montana State advance here.

Kansas State has logged back-to-back flat performances, and the Wildcats are just a few weeks removed from a similar stretch in February. Montana State gets to the line a ton (23.4 free throws per game, 9th), and the Bobcats enter the East Region brackets having won 8 consecutive games.