Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 odds between Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez, with MMA picks and predictions.
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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the main event, Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 59 at Ball Arena in Denver. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 59: Namajunas vs. Cortez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, also on ESPN/ESPN+.
Records: Namajunas (13-6-0) | Cortez (11-1-0)
Namajunas fights in her 2nd consecutive fight night main event. She took care of Amanda Ribas last time out UFC on ESPN 53 back in late March. “Thug” has ended up going the distance in each of her past 4 fights, including a championship defense against Zhang Weili at UFC 268 on Nov. 6, 2021, while also losing via split-decision to Carla Esparza at UFC 271 to lose her strap.
Cortez is quickly rising through the ranks with 5 straight wins since joining the UFC level. Her past 7 professional bouts have ended up going the distance dating back to a split-decision win over Erin Blanchfield at Invicta FC 54 Feb. 15, 2019.
Cortez, who is married to fellow UFC fight Brian Ortega, is quickly rising through the ranks. She is a perfect 5-for-5 since joining the company, while also taking care of Mariya Agapova in Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 3, Week 6. She has won 11 straight pro bouts since losing her career debut to Cheri Muraski at Invicta FC 25 by submission back on Aug. 31, 2017.
Cortez holds a slight half-inch reach advantage, while she has a slight 4.11-to-3.69 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over the veteran Namajunas. Cortez is also much more accurate with those strikes at 61.55% to 45.79%, while posting a 2.33-to-1.38 takedown average advantage. The difference in takedown accuracy percentage and submission average is negligible.
Namajunas (-225) is a former champ at this weight division, and it wasn’t very long ago she was decorated with the belt. In fact, she has 2 championship bout wins, and 2 successful title defenses before losing the belt. She is tough, and she is experienced. However, risking more than 2 times your potential return against a challenger unbeaten at the UFC level is risky business.
Cortez (+190) has the impressive record, but she has also fought a lot of tomato cans along the way. Facing Namajunas is a giant step up in competition. Look for the champ to take care of business, wowing the judges. NAMAJUNAS BY DECISION (-110) is the way to go.
There are no Over/Under round bets for this fight. It’s simply a prop on whether the bell rings to start Round 5, and Yes (-350) will set you back 3 1/2 times your potential return. That’s still a bit risky.
Yes (-275): Fight to go the distance? is also still quite pricey, and not a recommended play unless you fold it into a multi-leg parlay of some sort.
PASS, unless betting the distance as a leg of your multi-pronged parlay.
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UFC bantamweight Ailin Perez took a shot at Tracy Cortez, who needed to chop off some hair to make weight for the UFC on ESPN 59 main event.
[autotag]Ailin Perez[/autotag] had a few choice words for [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag] after her near-miss on the scale for UFC on ESPN 59.
Cortez (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC), who headlines UFC on ESPN 59 opposite former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in a five-round flyweight bout, needed to chop off some of her hair to hit 126 pounds at Friday’s official weigh-ins.
The impromptu haircut worked for Cortez, but that didn’t stop Perez (10-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) from chirping on social media.
“Wow @cortez MMA, you really had to cut your hair to make weight,” Perez wrote on Instagram and later shared to X. “You were giften an amazing opportunity to be a main event versus a former UFC champ and you barely made it. LOL. What a waste of an opportunity, you are showing your lack of preparation for a moment so big.”
— Ailín “Fiona” 👑 Pérez (@AiluPerezUFC) July 12, 2024
Perez, who has been turning heads while on a three-fight winning streak and executing her signature twerking celebrations, showed disappointment for one of her fighting peers for nearly squandering an opportunity, although Cortez did make the weight limit, even with less hair than expected.
Not to mention, Cortez stepped up on short notice to replace Namajunas’ original opponent Maycee Barber, who had to withdraw due to medical issues.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 59.
Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez had a cordial staredown ahead of Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 main event in Denver.
The stage is set for the UFC on ESPN 59 headliner between [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] and [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag] after they encountered each other for the final time before stepping into the octagon.
After making weight Friday morning for the five-round women’s flyweight bout, Namajunas (12-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC) and Cortez (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) had a final faceoff going into Saturday’s showdown at Ball Arena in Denver (ESPN, ESPN+).
Both women have showed respect toward each other heading into fight night, and that tone remained the same with a cordial staredown (via X):
Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez have their only faceoff for the #UFCDenver main event. 👀
The main event for the UFC’s return to Denver is official but not without a dramatic scene on the scale from Tracy Cortez.
The main event for the UFC’s return to Denver is official after both headliners made weight Friday but not without some drama from [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag].
Ahead of UFC on ESPN 59 (ESPN/ESPN+), which takes place Saturday at Ball Arena, [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] made the women’s flyweight limit of 126 pounds without issue, hitting 124.5 just a few minutes into the weigh-in window.
Cortez, however, was a different story as her weight cut continued through most of the session until she stepped on the scale the first time and weighed 126.5 to miss her mark. Cortez still had time, though, and she returned for a second attempt after cutting her hair. In a dramatic scene, Cortez made the 126-pound limit and was brought to tears as she posed on the scale while clenching her hair.
You can watch video of both Cortez (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) and Namajunas (13-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC) on the scale in the video above.
How will former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas handle the short-notice test Tracy Cortez presents in Denver?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC on ESPN 59 main event between former strawweight champion [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] and [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag], who is undefeated in the promotion.
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC strawweight champion
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ 2 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Good feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for/floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard
Supplemental info:
+ Amateur MMA accoldes
+ Wrestling base
+ 1 KO victory
+ 1 submission win
+ 1 first-round finish
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking skills
+ Hard hooks and crosses
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Solid striking and slick inside trips
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Rides well from topside
+/- Stepping in on short notice
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez point of interest: The cost of counters
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MARCH 23: (L-R) Rose Namajunas punches Amanda Ribas of Brazil in a flyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on March 23, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
The main event in Denver features an impromptu pairing of female flyweights familiar with the cost of counters.
An aggressive wrestle-boxer by nature, Cortez has seen her fair share of counterstrikes during her 7-year professional career. That said, Cortez has been able to balance out that dynamic through the steady dose of improvements she’s been showing on the feet.
Not only can Cortez counter with the level-changing takedown threats that she keeps in her back pocket, but the Fight Ready product has sharpened up her striking options at range. Whether she’s returning a leg kick or shaking up the rhythm with a hook-cross changeup down the pike, Cortez has gotten better at disguising her intentions and returns.
Cortez also has a natural aptitude for clinch striking, working particularly well when establishing frames while her opponent is pinned against the fence. These attributes will certainly serve Cortez well from a stylistic perspective, but she’ll still need to respect the traffic that’s coming back her way.
Enter Namajunas.
A talented opportunist who can accentuate her length through accurate and concise jabs, Namanjunas presents some tricky distances for her opponents to cover on paper.
Namajunas does well with judging the risk versus reward regarding her options of following up with crosses and kicks or backing up out of range. The 32-year-old has also massively improved her ability to set things up off of feints under the tutelage of Trevor Wittman – a coach who has helped Namajunas hone in on her skills by sharpening her overall fundamentals.
However, it has been apparent that Wittman’s presence has steadily faded out from Namajunas’ camp and corner in recent fights. Now primarily training under her partner, Pat Barry, Namajunas appears to flow a little more freely with her approach.
Namajunas still possesses a lot of the core fundamentals that were sharpened under Wittman’s watch, but the former strawweight champ will now shift stances much more offensively, showing some solid competency when working out from southpaw.
Still, I’m not sure how much shifting we’ll see from Namajunas given the looming level-changing threats from Cortez.
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez breakdown: Potential grappling threats
May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Tracy Cortez pins Melissa Gatto to the mat during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Given Cortez’s on-paper edge in the wrestling realm, no one should be shocked if she attempts to ground Namajunas early and often.
Wrestling from a young age, Cortez brings a strong skillset that has traditionally been a bit more rare to come across in the women’s divisions. Not only does Cortez possess solid level-changing shots, but the Mexican-American also chains attacks seamlessly to her inside trip whenever in closed quarters (which is a signature move of her longtime mentor, Henry Cejudo).
However, in Namajunas’ defense, the former strawweight champ has made quiet improvements to both her wrestling and overall grappling throughout the years.
After suffering her first loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling abilities, displaying that she had more to offer than just opportunistic submissions from her back. Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began taking down her counterparts, exposing them to submissions underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions.
As far as her defense goes, Namajunas has demonstrated excellent instincts regarding her use of whizzers in conjunction with some slick butterflies and legwork that help her get back to her feet when taken down. That said, Namajunas will still need to be careful when giving back exposure in scrambles given Cortez’s strengths.
Aside from being a competent backtaker who can seal rounds with superior control time and offense, Cortez also appears to have a genuine appetite for riding her opposition from topside while landing damaging strikes.
But with ground strikes often allowing for space, expect scrambles to be a potent two-way street in this stylistic affair. And if Cortez allows Namajunas to create scrambles, then she will need to be mindful of her wrestling-centric tendency to tripod to her base.
A superb back-taker, Namajunas has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent in transit. And given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has scored a back-take, this will undoubtedly be the scenario to look for during grappling exchanges.
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez odds
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the former strawweight champion, listing Namajunas -235 and Cortez +180 via FanDuel.
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez prediction, pick
Nov 6, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Rose Namajunas (red gloves) competes against Zhang Weili (blue gloves) during UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Between Namajunas being the more proven product and the short-notice context for Cortez, seeing a 2-1 spread in favor of “Thug Rose” doesn’t necessarily surprise me.
Cortez may have already been in camp for a fight that was only one week out from this Saturday, but that prep was for a completely different fighter in what was a three-round affair. If Cortez were fighting Namajunas on a full camp in the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex, then I’d honestly consider pulling the trigger on her as an underdog given the stylistic nature at play.
Not only have superior wrestlers and clinch fighters typically troubled Namajunas, but Cortez appears to have a strong strategic presence in her corner that’s chiefed by Santino DeFranco.
Still, with this fight taking place in the big cage, Cortez will have a lot of distance to cover if she means to track down the fleet of foot Namajunas. Couple that with Cortez’s propensity to get countered off of kicks, and I can’t help but side with Namajunas in this spot.
Aside from making some solid strides in her traditional trouble areas, Namajunas seems to be feeling confident heading into this Saturday’s contest – which usually spells trouble for whoever is standing across from her.
Prediction: Namajunas by decision
Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez start time, where to watch
As the main event, Namajunas and Cortez are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight broadcasts live on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 59.
On “Spinning Back Clique,” our panel looks at the UFC Denver main event between Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez.
A former champion is back in action in front of her home fans Saturday.
[autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] (13-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC) lost her strawweight title to Carla Esparza in her second reign as champion. Her move to flyweight started with a loss to Manon Fiorot, but she bounced back against Amanda Ribas in March.
She was set to take on Maycee Barber in the UFC on ESPN 59 main event Saturday in Denver, but Barber pulled out. In stepped [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag] (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) on short notice, and an upset would be the biggest win on her resume. She hasn’t lost since her pro debut.
Fiorot is right there in the wings for a shot at champion Alexa Grasso. But can the Namajunas-Cortez winner jump the line with an impressive win?
MMA Junkie’s Brian “Goze” Garcia, Matthew Wells and Nolan King break it down with host “Gorgeous” George Garcia. Watch their discussion in the video above, and don’t miss this week’s complete episode of “Spinning Back Clique” below on YouTube or in podcast form.
Tracy Cortez thinks both Rose Namajunas and herself will be entering uncharted territory in Saturday’s UFC Denver headliner.
[autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag] thinks both [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] and herself will be entering uncharted territory when they clash in Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 headliner.
Cortez (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) openly admits she’s encountering a lot of new moments as she readies for her first octagon main event against Namajunas (12-6 MMA, 10-5 UFC) at Ball Arena in Denver (ESPN, ESPN+). She replaced Maycee Barber in the matchup on less than three weeks’ notice, and was forced to adjust to elevation, a five-round fight and her most high-level opponent to date.
It’s a lot to throw Cortez’s way, she said, but she thinks she’s handled it all professionally. Moreover, the situation is made easier in knowing the far more experienced Namajunas, who is a former two-time champion, is going to have to deal with something new herself come fight night.
“I’m a gamer,” Cortez told MMA Junkie on Wednesday. “I’m not one to ever shy down from a challenge. I’m not ever one to say no to great opportunities. This is how the greats are made. This is how legends are made. To fight a former world champ, and have a call – I felt extremely blessed and jumped on it.
“I’m going to be blunt: It’s just a learning experience for me, this is all new to me. I’ve never taken a short-notice (fight), let alone against a former world champ. But I’m confident within myself and my skills. It was just everything else around me that I had to figure out. Everything went really smooth, actually incredibly smooth. I think I stressed myself out more than I should have.”
FULL INTERVIEW
After a decorated run at strawweight, Namajunas moved up to 125 pounds in September. She’s gone 1-1 in her new weight class, losing her debut to top contender Manon Fiorot before bouncing back against Amanda Ribas in March.
Cortez, 30, thinks she brings a different skillset to the table than that of Fiorot and Ribas, especially when it comes to size and strength. Cortez, who has competed at women’s bantamweight in the past, carries Namajunas in high regard, but thinks she has variables that could create problems for “Thug Rose” in this division.
“Who doesn’t love Rose? She’s an incredible person, but unfortunately, we are in the fighting business,” Cortez said. “She wants to move up to 125 and we’re going to face each other. Whether it’s now or down the road, it just happens to be now. I have nothing bad to say about Rose and if anything, I’m excited for this challenge and I’m grateful she took this fight with me.
“I want to say I’m a true 125er. Sh*t, I could even fight at 135 but I’m a real flyweight and I don’t think she’s yet to face someone like myself, and vice versa. I’ve never faced a former world champion, so it’s putting both of us in a good test.”
Cortez, No. 8 in the latest USA TODAY Sports/MMA Junkie women’s flyweight rankings, understands what a win over a name like Namajunas would do for her career. Although Namajunas, who is ranked No. 13, doesn’t have the same type of resume in this weight class as she did at strawweight, beating her is still is a significant accomplishment.
If Cortez gets the job done, she would elevate her name into title contention. She is confident the belt will come her way eventually, but with Valentina Shevchenko’s status uncertain for a potential Noche UFC title shot against champion Alexa Grasso, there could be serious opportunities abound if Cortez gets her hand raised.
“I really want to fight for the belt,” Cortez said. “I know there’s a lot of people ahead of me still. I know winning this fight, where it could move me to. And the performance I put on Saturday, I know everything that comes with it. If I get the opportunity and they grant me the opportunity to fight at the Sphere, I think it would be incredible history. Two Mexican women on Mexican Independence Day fighting on the biggest sport event ever. I think that would just be incredible. That’s something I never imaged and I feel like it’s just arm’s length. That is what I’m striving for, but at the end of the day, long-term goal, I am fighting for the belt.”
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For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 59.
No one’s solved the Tracy Cortez puzzle inside the octagon, and that’s why she finds herself in Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 59 main event.
No one has been able to solve the puzzle that is [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag] inside the octagon so far, and that’s why she finds herself in a UFC main event this weekend.
Cortez (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) will look to take her career to the next level Saturday when she takes on former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in a women’s flyweight headliner at UFC on ESPN 59, which goes down at Ball Arena in Denver (ESPN, ESPN+).
Although she was not the original opponent for Namajunas and filled in for Maycee Barber, the chance to get top billing on a card was not far off for Cortez, who has largely had her way with the competition in her UFC run to this point. That includes her most recent bout, which was a unanimous decision win over Jasmine Jasudavicius at Noche UFC in September.
Jasudavicius entered the matchup as a winner in five of her previous six fights, but Cortez put a halt to that as she landed more than 100 significant strikes en route to 30-27, 30-27 and 29-28 scorecards.
Relive the performance from Cortez in the video above in advance of her main event showdown with Namajunas this weekend at UFC on ESPN 59.
[lawrence-related id=2754507,2754648]
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC on ESPN 59.
On “Spinning Back Clique,” the panel discusses Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal, the UFC featherweight title picture and much more.
Check out this week’s “Spinning Back Clique,” MMA Junkie’s weekly live show that takes a spin through the biggest topics in mixed martial arts.
This week’s panel of Brian “Goze” Garcia, Matthew Wells and Nolan King joined host “Gorgeous” George Garcia to discuss and debate the following topics:
Two of the biggest stars in MMA threw down in the ring Saturday when [autotag]Nate Diaz[/autotag] defeated [autotag]Jorge Masvidal[/autotag] in a competitive boxing match that ended in majority decision. Did Diaz really do enough to beat Masvidal? What should be next for each ? We discuss the boxing match, which was the biggest fight of the weekend, along with other results from the card.
The UFC’s featherweight division seems to be in a stalemate. [autotag]Ilia Topuria[/autotag], who became champion in February, has yet to get booked for his first title defense. This past week, both Topuria and former champion [autotag]Max Holloway[/autotag] got into a social media back-and-forth and blamed each other for the delay in their expected title fight. What’s going on? Is the UFC mishandling the title picture at 145 pounds? We make sense of the latest at featherweight.
Several fun and important matchups were recently booked, but which one stands out the most and why? The panel highlights some of the bookings from this past week.
Saturday, the UFC returns to Denver. In the main event, former women’s strawweight champion [autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] takes on rising flyweight contender [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag]. What does this bout mean for the women’s 125-pound division? Could it determine the next title challenger? We break down the main event of UFC on ESPN 59.
The promotion is targeting to Tracy Cortez replace Maycee Barber to face Rose Namajunas in the main event of UFC Denver on July 13.
[autotag]Rose Namajunas[/autotag] has a new opponent lined up for her return to the octagon.
The former UFC strawweight champion is now targeted to take on [autotag]Tracy Cortez[/autotag], as a replacement for her original opponent [autotag]Maycee Barber[/autotag] – who withdrew from the matchup due to undisclosed reasons. The fight still remains the headliner of the UFC Fight Night event scheduled for July 13 in Denver.
Two people with knowledge of the matchup informed MMA Junkie of the change but asked to remain anonymous as the promotion has yet to make an official announcement. MMA Mania and MMA Fighting first reported the news Tuesday.
Cortez (11-1 MMA, 5-0 UFC) remains undefeated since joining the UFC in 2019. She last fought in September, where she defeated Jasmine Jasudavicius in a unanimous decision. This will be the first UFC event Cortez headlines.
