Texas Tech Red Raiders betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets – Page 4

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-6, 1-2 Big 12) and No. 19 Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-3, 2-1) meet Thursday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. Below, we look at the Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech odds and lines and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Oklahoma State has scored just 62.0 points per game while shooting 37.4% from the floor in losing three of its last four games. The Cowboys lost 70-60 Tuesday at West Virginia, so they are completing the Big 12 geographical -nightmare double in traveling to Lubbock. The fast-paced OSU five have been tagged with turnovers in a conference-worst 21.4% of their possessions.

The Red Raiders rank third in the Big12 in offense (75.0 PPG) and second in defense (58.5). Texas Tech is undefeated (9-0) on its home floor and is coming into this game off a monster 65-62 win over No. 1 Baylor Tuesday. The Raiders outshot the Bears, 50.9% to 41.1% in that upset in Waco, Texas.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

Money line: Oklahoma State +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Texas Tech -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma State +7.5 (-115) | Texas Tech -7.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 129.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas Tech 67, Oklahoma State 59

Money line

AVOID. Neither side is as attractive as the Over/Under here. Texas Tech is the lean, but that lean is brushed back by the expensive tag.

Against the spread

The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games against winning teams and the Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against winning teams.

A young Oklahoma State team making the Stillwater-to-Morgantown-to-Lubbock voyage gets us halfway to a fade. Defensive play that has struggled of late takes us further down the road.

A Texas Tech advantage on the boards cinches it. In their last four games against fast-pace foes, the slow-’em-down Raiders are 3-1 ATS, with all three wins being by double-digits against the number.

TAKE TEXAS TECH -7.5 (-107).

Over/Under

When TTU is playing against a winning team, the Under is 6-2.

Neither team is all that proficient on threes and frees (3-pointers and free throws). The Raiders will look to game-control this one against a likely-tiring OSU five.

BACK THE UNDER 129.5 (-112).

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Texas Tech at Baylor odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Texas Tech Red Raiders at Baylor Bears odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 19 Texas Tech Red Raiders (11-3, 1-1 Big 12) tangle with the No. 1 Baylor Bears (15-0, 3-0) Tuesday in Waco, Texas. The Big 12 battle at Ferrell Center is slated to tip-off at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Baylor odds and lines and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Texas Tech is coming off a key win over Kansas Saturday. The Red Raiders had 11 offensive rebounds and got to the free-throw line 22 times while shooting 50.9% from the field. Senior F Bryson Williams had 22 points and 8 boards against the Jayhawks. Williams and the Raiders have won three of their last four games.

The Bears defeated the TCU Horned Frogs 76-64 Saturday. Baylor shot 52.6% from the floor and has now registered a mark of 50% or better in six straight games.

BU is shooting 49.5% on the season which ranks 13th in NCAA-I. The Bears have been buoyed by the steady play of senior G James Akinjo, who has logged 47 points over their last two games and is averaging 14.4 points and 6.1 assists per game.

Texas Tech at Baylor odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:18 a.m. ET.

Money line: Texas Tech +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Baylor -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +11.5 (-107) | Baylor -11.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 135.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Texas Tech at Baylor odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Baylor 75, Texas Tech 62

Money line

AVOID. There’s just too much juice here.

Against the spread

The Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games against TTU.

BU swept the Raiders straight up and against the spread in two meetings last season. The Bears are the better shooting team by a decent margin and the venue is a big plus for Baylor and a significant minus for Texas Tech. TTU also has a couple or three injury/illness issues among some key veteran sources of rebounds and assists.

BACK the BEARS -11.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Over is 5-0-1 across the Bears’ last six games and is 4-2 in the last six games of this series.

Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 135.5 (-110).

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Kansas at Texas Tech odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Kansas at Texas Tech odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks (12-1, 1-0 Big 12) and No. 25 Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-3, 0-1) tangle Saturday at 4 p.m. ET at United Supermarkets Arena in Lubbock, Texas. Below, we look at the Kansas vs. Texas Tech odds and lines and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Kansas leads the Big 12 in scoring at 83.3 points per game. The Jayhawks have rode strong 3-point shooting and rebounding to eight straight wins since losing to the Dayton Flyers Nov. 26. Over the eight wins, Kansas has shot 38.1% from distance while posting an average plus-10.0 on the boards. The Jayhawks had 15 offensive rebounds in a 64-63 triumph at Oklahoma State Tuesday.

The Red Raiders have allowed just 57.6 PPG: that ranks third in the conference and 10th in the nation. Texas Tech allowed just 51 in its last game but lost (51-47) at Iowa State on Wednesday. TTU shot just 38.8% from the floor in that loss after connecting on 50.5% of its field goals the previous four games.

Kansas at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Money line: Kansas -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Texas Tech +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Against the spread (ATS): Kansas -4.5 (-105) | Texas Tech +4.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 139.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Kansas at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Kansas 72, Texas Tech 70

Money line

Kansas is a really good team, but figure this as a tough spot for a team playing its second straight game on the road. In a clash of styles between the fast Jayhawks and methodical Raiders, look for the home five to have a legitimate shot at an outright win when this contest rolls down to triple-zeroes on the clock.

The interior TTU defense and Red Raider rebounding are big keys to the value on TEXAS TECH (+155).

Against the spread

Last season, Kansas beat Texas Tech by 6 at home and by 1 in Lubbock. Figure the Jayhawks suffering some fatigue and running into tough inside defense that grinds this score down to a close shave.

The sample isn’t great because of TTU’s relatively easy schedule so far, but analytic metrics are high on the Raiders’ home-court advantage.

BACK TEXAS TECH +4.5 (-120).

Over/Under

The number here looks solid, perhaps with just a slight lean toward the Over. PASS.

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Texas Tech at Iowa State odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Texas Tech Red Raiders at Iowa State Cyclones odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 25 Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-2, 0-0 Big 12) and No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (12-1, 0-1) clash Wednesday in Ames, Iowa. Tip-off from James H. Hilton Coliseum is set for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Iowa State odds and lines and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Texas Tech is 4-1 over its last five games, and its only loss during that stretch was to No. 4 Gonzaga. TTU has held foes to just 34.5% from the field over that span. The Red Raiders rank 13th in the nation with 58.2 points allowed per game.

The Cyclones rank 10th in the nation in defense with 57.1 points allowed per game. They had held foes to a minuscule 36.9% accuracy mark on field goals until dropping their first game of the season 77-72 Saturday versus Baylor. The Bears shot 50.0% from the floor and went 7-for-17 (41.2%) from distance, as Iowa State was felled for the first time under first-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger.

Texas Tech at Iowa State odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

Money line: Texas Tech +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Iowa State -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +3.5 (-107) | Iowa State -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 127.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Texas Tech at Iowa State odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Iowa State 64, Texas Tech 59

Money line

The Red Raiders have played a weak schedule to date.

Iowa State has gone 4-0 while exhibiting a ton of game control against teams like Xavier, Memphis and Creighton.

Look for a versatile Cyclone backcourt to leverage a TTU weakness in defending 3-pointers.

TAKE IOWA STATE (-180).

Against the spread

The Red Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games. The Cyclones are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against teams playing .600 or better basketball.

The favorite has won five in a row against the number in the head-to-head series.

BACK THE CYCLONES -3.5 (-115).

Over/Under

Look for two veteran Big 12 squads to be dialed in defensively in a game with a slowed-down pace.

TAKE THE UNDER 127.5 (-115).

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Liberty Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech Liberty Bowl odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-5) and Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6) clash in a Liberty Bowl showdown Tuesday. Kickoff from Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tenn., is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Mississippi State went 4-2 over its last six regular-season games. The two losses — to current No. 8 Ole Miss and No. 24 Arkansas — were in close games, and the four wins were by an average margin of 26.8 points per contest.

Head coach Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense ranks third in the nation in passing yards with 385.7 yards per game and 130th in rushing at 63.9 yards per game. QB Will Rogers has thrown for 330-plus yards in six straight outings.

Texas Tech is just 1-4 since Oct. 23. The Raiders also sport a pass-first offense, although TTU does show a bit more balance as it’s ranked 77th in rushing.

Turnovers have been a problem for Texas Tech: the Red Raiders are a minus-8 on the season. They don’t post solid havoc analytics on defense, but TTU should have an advantage in this matchup on special teams.

Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:12 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mississippi State -360 (bet $360 to win $100) | Texas Tech +270 (bet $100 to win $270)
Against the spread (ATS): Mississippi State -9.5 (-112) | Texas Tech +9.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 58.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mississippi State vs. Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions

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Prediction

Mississippi State 31, Texas Tech 24

Money line

PASS, and look for value opportunities against the number and possibly on the total.

Against the spread

Much of the narrative for this one revolves around Leach facing a Texas Tech program he coached from 2000-09 and left with some acrimonious feelings on both sides. That the Red Raiders are transitioning to new head coach Joey Maguire but will be led by interim coach Sonny Cumbie in this one.

However, there is some football analysis favoring Texas Tech here. Figure on a somewhat slow pace with both teams finding moderate success.

TTU gets perhaps more dinged by opt-outs, with OL Charles Cross — a left tackle projected as an NFL first-rounder — and CB Martin Emerson on the sideline. Mix in some field tilt provided by a rather large discrepancy in special teams play.

BACK the RED RAIDERS +9.5 (-108).

Over/Under

The odds of a closer game, a slower-paced one edging the total closer to 55-56 makes the UNDER 58.5 (-110) a decent play.

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Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-1, 6-1 Big 12) visit the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-4, 3-4) Saturday at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

The Cowboys have risen into the top-10 with outstanding play, including a 63-17 win against TCU last weekend. Oklahoma State has covered eight straight games.

The Red Raiders outlasted Iowa State 41-38 last week in Lubbock, winning outright as a 13-point underdog. Texas Tech hasn’t covered in consecutive games all season. Both teams have scored 21 or more points in each game this season.

Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Oklahoma State -370 (bet $370 to win $100) | Texas Tech +280 (bet $100 to win $280)
Against the spread (ATS): Oklahoma State -9.5 (-120) | Texas Tech +9.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 55.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Oklahoma State 43, Texas Tech 25

Money line

Oklahoma State (-370) is going to win this game and keep its flicking College Football Playoff hopes alive with a 10th win. However, you cannot risk more than three and a half times your potential return on a road team.

AVOID, and look to the line.

Against the spread

OKLAHOMA STATE -9.5 (-120) is the lean here, especially since Texas Tech +9.5 (-105) hasn’t covered back-to-back games this season.

The Cowboys have cashed in eight in a row, including wins by 21 or more points in each of the past three outings.

Over/Under

The OVER 55.5 (-110) is the play here. When these teams get together, a lot of points are sure to follow.

The Over is 7-2 in the past nine meetings, with Texas Tech hitting the Over in four straight at home against teams with a winning road record.

The Over is also 17-5-2 in the past 24 for the Red Raiders against a team with a winning overall mark.

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Texas Tech at Oklahoma odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-3, 2-3 Big 12) travel to meet the No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (8-0, 5-0) Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

The Red Raiders were nipped at home as 1-point underdogs last Saturday, falling to Kansas State 25-24. TTU has alternated wins and losses in its past six outings, while the Under has hit in three of the previous four games.

The Sooners survived a scare in Kansas of all places, prevailing 35-23 last week. Oklahoma trailed 10-0 at half and 17-14 after three quarters, but it pulled away behind a 21-6 fourth quarter to avert disaster in the unlikeliest of places. OU has turned to QB Caleb Williams since the Texas game and hasn’t looked back, averaging 47.3 points per game (PPG) in the previous three outings.

Rankings according to the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:18 p.m. ET.

Money line: Texas Tech +650 (bet $100 to win $650) | Oklahoma -1100 (bet $1,100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +19.5 (-110) | Oklahoma -19.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 66.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Texas Tech at Oklahoma odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Oklahoma 45, Texas Tech 31

Money line

Oklahoma (-1100) will cost you 11 times your potential return. That’s just not a good long-term betting strategy. A $100 wager returns just $9.09, which is way too much risk for not enough reward.

AVOID and look to the spread.

Against the spread

TEXAS TECH +19.5 (-110) has covered four of the past five games on the road. Oklahoma has the tools to hang with most everyone on offense, especially since changing to Williams, who has been more efficient. But the defense continues to struggle, yielding 33.3 PPG across the past four outings. As such, you have to believe the Red Raiders should be able to keep it within 20.

Over/Under

OVER 66.5 (-110) is worth a look based upon Oklahoma’s prolific offense and its very giving defense. The Sooners are rolling up 469.8 total yards per game to rank 16th in the nation, and they have a very balanced offense. OU also ranks eighth in the country with 41.8 PPG, but the defense is yielding 24.6 PPG to rank 61st, while allowing 273.4 passing yards per contest to rank 113th out of 130 FBS teams.

TTU is posting 34.3 PPG, while coughing up 30.6 PPG. The scoreboard operator better limber up, because he/she is going to be busy in Norman.

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Kansas State at Texas Tech odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Kansas State Wildcats (3-3, 0-3 Big 12) visit Big XII co-tenant Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-2, 2-2) Saturday for a noon ET kickoff at Jones AT&T Stadium. Below, we look at the Kansas State vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Kansas State has lost three straight since beginning conference play vs. the Iowa State Cyclones (33-20 in Week 7), Oklahoma Sooners (37-31 Oct. 2) and Oklahoma State Cowboys (31-20 Sept. 25).

The Wildcats are 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and 4-2 Over/Under (O/U) with the second-toughest schedule in the nation according to USA TODAY’s Jeff Sagarin.

Texas Tech has alternated between winning and losing over the past four games with the latest being a 41-14 blowout victory at the Kansas Jayhawks Oct. 16. According to Sagarin, the Red Raiders have played the 82nd-toughest schedule. They are 4-3 ATS and 3-4 O/U on the season.

Kansas State has won five consecutive meetings with Texas Tech (4-1 ATS) and the last two victories came as a 1-point underdog.

Kansas State at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

Money line: Kansas State -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Texas Tech -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Kansas State +0.5 (-108) | Texas Tech -0.5 (-112)
Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Kansas State at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Kansas State 30, Texas Tech 24

Money line

BET KANSAS STATE (-108) for 1.25 units for several reasons. First of all, the Wildcats should dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

According to Football Outsiders, Texas Tech ranks 66th in defensive line yards per snap and 67th in offensive line yards per snap. Kansas State ranks 37th in defensive line yards per snap and 35th in offensive line yards per snap.

Mind you, Kansas State has played the second-hardest schedule in the country.

Furthermore, if you can run the ball against the Red Raiders then you’ll beat them. Texas Tech’s defense ranks 107th in open field yards, 113th in rushing predicted points added (PPA) and 101st in rushing success rate. Kansas State ranks 31st in rushing PPA and eighth in rushing success rate (both in non-garbage time).

Also, this is a much better spot for the Wildcats. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells was hired in 2018. Over that span, the Red Raiders are 7-7-1 ATS at home with a minus-4.4-point spread differential and 9-12-1 ATS vs. Big 12 teams.

On the other hand, Kansas State hired Chris Klieman to succeed longtime coach Bill Snyder in 2019. Since then, the Wildcats are 13-8 ATS in conference play and 7-4 ATS on the road.

Finally, the betting count is split between these two sides, but more than 80% of the cash has been wagered on Kansas State, according to Pregame.com.

The “wiseguys” see value in the road favorite while the public is torn since the Wildcats are on a three-game losing skid when visiting a conference foe with a winning record.

BET KANSAS STATE (-108).

Against the spread

PASS unless Kansas State’s money line climbs above -140. I’d then lay up to 3 points with the Wildcats. But, in this case, the money line and spreads are identical.

Over/Under

PASS because I don’t have a grasp on the Kansas State-Texas Tech total. According to Pregame.com, roughly 90% of the action is on the Over, but the total hasn’t really budged since the opener.

That suggests oddsmakers are happy with taking more pro-Over money. So, maybe the play is a tiny wager on the Under 60.5 (-110). But I’ll stay away because I don’t have another read on the total aside from the “line freeze” angle.

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TCU at Texas Tech odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s TCU at Texas Tech odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-2, 0-1 in Big XII) stop by Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock for a conference showdown with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1, 1-1) Saturday at 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the TCU vs. Texas Tech odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Texas Tech returns home after two straight Big XII road games. First, the Red Raiders were hammered 70-35 at the No. 23 Texas Longhorns in Week 4 then upset the West Virginia Mountaineers 23-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs in Week 5. Texas Tech is 3-2 ATS and has gone Under the total in three of its five games.

TCU just lost a nail-biter to Texas 32-27 as 4-point home underdogs Oct. 2, following a 42-34 home loss to the No. 24 SMU Mustangs as 8-point favorites. The Horned Frogs are just 0-3-1 ATS and 2-2 Over/Under thus far. TCU has won and covered back-to-back games against Texas Tech.

TCU at Texas Tech odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: TCU -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Texas Tech +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread (ATS): TCU -1.5 (-112) | Texas Tech +1.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 61.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

TCU at Texas Tech odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas Tech 31, TCU 27

Money line

GIMME TEXAS TECH (+102) for 1.25 units because this feels like the wrong team is favored.

My guess as to why TCU has been bet through zero and up to a slight favorite since this game opened is Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson is one of the winningest active coaches in college football.

Also, the market might be using each teams’ loss to Texas as a measuring stick. I.e. since TCU nearly covered at home against Texas and Texas Tech got smoked by five touchdowns so the market assumes the Horned Frogs are the better team.

However, that’s not how it works. Aside from that one stinker, Texas Tech has played good football this season. The Red Raiders have higher predicted points added (PPA), yards per play and Havoc rate differentials in non-garbage time than the Horned Frogs.

Furthermore, Texas Tech has a higher net drive efficiency, net points per drive and net points per play than TCU, according to Football Outsiders. On top of that, TCU actually has a minus-0.8 yards per play net and has played a weaker strength of schedule.

Against the spread

PASS and stick with the money line since Texas Tech +1.5 (-108) is 10 cents on the dollar pricier and doesn’t offer much insurance, obviously.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 61.5 (-115) there’s a “pros vs. joe’s” scenario in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, roughly 85% of the money is on the Under whereas nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Over.

Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public. But, since I don’t have a strong handicap on the TCU-Texas Tech total, I’ll stay away.

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Texas Tech at Texas odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Texas Tech at Texas odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-0) travel to the state capital Saturday for a noon ET kickoff against the Texas Longhorns (2-1) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Below, we look at the Texas Tech vs. Texas odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.

Texas Tech bounced back from a lackluster 28-22 Week 2 win over Stephen F. Austin as a 31.5-point favorite to easily handle Florida International 54-21 last week as a 20.5-point favorite.

Texas destroyed Rice 58-0 Saturday as a 26-point home favorite after being upset the week prior by Arkansas 40-21 as a 5.5-point road favorite. The Longhorns prevailed over the Red Raiders in last year’s meeting 63-56 in overtime.

Texas Tech at Texas odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 5:11 p.m. ET.

Money line: Texas Tech +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Texas -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Texas Tech +9.5 (-110) | Texas -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 61.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Texas Tech at Texas odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Texas Tech 34, Texas 28

Money line

I like the Red Raiders plus points so much in this spot that I almost have to SPRINKLE on TEXAS TECH (+260). Texas has played a tougher schedule through three games, but Texas Tech has a much better EPA, success rate, points per play and yards per play differentials.

Furthermore, there’s just too much unconditional love in the market for a Texas football program that’s one of the most high-profile in the nation. Everyone is excited about first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian after what he did as the Alabama Crimson Tide’s offensive coordinator in recent seasons.

However, ESPN college football guru ranked Texas 95th in returning production and the Longhorns have fewer returning starters than the Red Raiders. Also, Texas Tech junior transfer QB Tyler Shough has been awesome so far in Lubbock. Shough leads the Big 12 in passing yards and is second in passer efficiency rating.

Against the spread

Definitely BET TEXAS TECH +0.5 (-110) heavier than or instead of the money line. Texas failed to cover last season vs. Texas Tech as a 17.5-point road favorite in a 63-56 overtime victory.

The Longhorns had a former three-year starter in QB Sam Ehlinger under center who was a preseason Heisman Trophy contender and still Texas Tech almost pulled off an outright upset.

There’s flummox in Texas’s quarterback room this time around. Sarkisian benched QB Hudson Card for QB Casey Thompson during the Longhorns’ 40-21 loss to Arkansas. Thompson has better numbers thus far but the point is Texas shouldn’t be laying more than a touchdown when it’s unsettled at quarterback.

We are getting significant “reverse line movement” in the betting market. For instance, nearly 60% of the action is on Texas according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, but the Longhorns have been steamed down from a 10-point favorite on the opener. It’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper especially when it’s a program as popular as Texas.

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Over/Under

PASS because my predicted score is nearly aligned with the market’s projection so there isn’t much value in be betting the total.

For what’s it worth, the last three Texas Tech-Texas meetings have gone Over the total with last year’s game soaring Over by nearly seven touchdowns. Additionally, Texas Tech is 1-2 O/U and Texas is 2-1 O/U.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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