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The 2020 Super Bowl has more than enough prop bets to give everyone something they might be interested in getting some action on. Today, I’m focusing on three Super Bowl prop bets surrounding passing statistics for Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes:
- Passing yards
- Passing attempts
- Will he throw an interception?
The expectations surrounding the Chiefs passing offense is always blown out of proportion because they are capable of such huge numbers.
Mahomes passing yards Super Bowl prop bet
This helps explain why Mahomes Over/Under, per BetMGM Sportsbook, for passing yards in the 2020 Super Bowl is 295½ yards (-125 for the Over, 100 for the Under).
In four career playoff games over the past two seasons, Mahomes has never thrown for less than 278 yards and three of them were games where the Chiefs called off the dogs in the fourth quarter once they built a double-digit lead and turned to the run game to kill off game clock.
His playoff passing yardage totals are tantalizing (278, 294, 295 and 321). Only one of the games has hit the over for what his Super Bowl number is, but a case can be made that, with the exception of his loss to the New England Patriots last year, Mahomes could have easily gone over in three of those games.
During the regular season, Mahomes threw for at least 296 yards in seven of the 13 games he played in full. From Week 11 on, however, he topped that number just once.
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The key to his number is the style of defense the San Francisco 49ers play.
They like to play man-to-man press coverage and they’re 15-3, so they have no complaints. The 49ers were the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL during the regular season, allowing 61.3% completions, 169.2 passing YPG and 23 touchdowns. San Francisco doesn’t want to get in a back-and-forth battle with an elite passing offense, but they’re not going to change what they do in the Super Bowl.
The oddsmakers want you to bet the Under – that’s why the return price is much better. That’s reason enough to think Mahomes will be throwing early and often and, if the Chiefs get a big lead, they likely won’t take their foot off the gas until they have to.
Take the Over.
Mahomes passing attempts Super Bowl prop bet
As it pertains to pass attempts, the Over/Under is 35½ (-129 for the Over, +105 for the Under).
Mahomes has thrown 35 passes in each of his first two postseason games – ironically completing 23 of them both times – but, the Chiefs will look to keep throwing. So far, the post-season blueprint against San Francisco tends to favor the pass. The 49ers have given up just 26 rushing attempts, 3.2 yards per carry and 41.5 rush YPG during the postseason; they gave up 112.6 rush YPG during the regular season, 17th in the league.
Take the Over.
Mahomes interceptions thrown Super Bowl prop bet
When you throw more than 35 passes, you will have a couple that are iffy.
As to whether or not Mahomes throws an interception (+105 for yes, -134 for no), the line suggests that he doesn’t. He will. Big stage nerves get the best of them at times. Mahomes threw just 5 interceptions all season and hasn’t been picked off during the playoffs. The 49ers have registered three interceptions during the postseason; they were tied for 17th in the league with 12 during the regular season.
Take yes (+105) at plus money.
Want some action on these prop bets or others? How about on the big game itself? Visit BetMGM and place your bets now.
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