Tag: Stats

What’s with the penalty disparity between the Saints and their opponents?

The New Orleans Saints rank among the most-penalized NFL teams, but their opponents are playing uncharacteristically clean against them.

The New Orleans Saints have overcome plenty of adversity this year, ranging from the five-week loss of starting quarterback Drew Brees to an opening-half schedule that saw them travel to play four opponents on the road in their first six weeks. They’ve also dealt with extra attention from the NFL’s referees and their officiating crews. That’s just part of the game, but this season (and in recent weeks specifically), it’s been unprecedented.

Check out the chart above from Jeff Asher of AH Datalytics, sourced from Pro Football Reference. From what we can see there, the Saints and their opponents have largely been penalized at similar rates; New Orleans played largely-clean football from 2006 to 2009, though a brief window from 2015 to 2017 saw their sloppy play benefit their opponents. But this latest surge in fouls has been very clearly one-sided.

The Saints are averaging 7.9 penalties per game, which ranks eighth-worst in the NFL. That’s turned into 68.3 penalty yards per game, nearly the equivalent of an offensive drive downfield after good starting field position. It’s kept a number of opposing drives alive, with New Orleans’ opponents gaining the second-most first downs by penalty per game (2.8) in the league.

And as the chart above demonstrates, the teams playing the Saints are not being held to the same standard. Those opponents are averaging the fewest penalties per game (5.3) and penalty yards surrendered per game (40.6) in football, granting the Saints the second-fewest first downs by penalty per game (0.92) around the NFL.

In a perfect world, officials would keep things fair and balanced and refuse to let one team get away with foul-worthy plays while turning a blind eye to their opponents. However, so long as people — with limited vision and too much autonomy to make judgment calls — are in charge, mistakes are going to happen. You would expect one team to end the day with fewer penalties than their opponent; typically speaking, some teams are better-coached and more disciplined than others. But the difference between how the Saints are being judged and how their opponents are being officiated deserves inspection.

One possible answer for that disparity could be that the Saints are playing a schedule filled with the league’s fewest-penalized teams. That’s not the case. New Orleans has played many teams ranked inside the top half of the league in penalties and penalty yards per game. We’ve broken down their penalty stats per game against what they were fouled for in the Saints’ games in the chart below:

This illustrates how officiating was nearly even to start the year, if marginally beneficial to the Saints. But over time (especially in recent weeks) there has been a visible shift in opposing teams being fouled less often against the Saints than in their typical games. Things bottomed out in Week 6 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when they were fouled for 6.8 penalties and 61.5 penalty yards below their season averages. There’s been a clear shift since that game.

On the whole, the Saints’ opponents have averaged 2.2 fewer penalties per game and 21.4 fewer penalty yards per game when playing against New Orleans than in their typical outings. In a vacuum, that isn’t much. But when considered in the big picture, those numbers snowball into 35.2 penalties and 342.4 penalty yards over a 16-game season.

So what gives? Are the Saints playing sloppy, while their opponents suddenly turn in their cleanest games of the year back-to-back-to-back? Or are the officials allowing the teams playing the Saints to get away with the ticky-tack fouls that happen on every down (holding, hands-to-the-face, that sort of thing) while not giving New Orleans the same leeway? It’s bizarre to say the least.

A big part of the problem is limited sample size. Analyzing the game from a quantifiable perspective like this works in other sports like baseball and basketball because there are literally hundreds (if not thousands) of data points to work with, whereas football begins and ends very quickly, relying on a 16-game regular season and four-stage postseason tournament. Instances like this are easy to explain away as an outlier, a freak accident, against what recent history informs us. That said, it’s totally understandable if fans aren’t satisfied with that explanation. It’s frustrating to see your team get fouled for what the other squad gets away with, week in and week out.

For his part, Saints coach Sean Payton isn’t going to chalk up these lost plays and surrendered yards to any biases from the NFL’s officials. He’s preached the need for improved coaching from his staff as well as better discipline from his players, summing up the situation after their penalty-filled Week 12 win over the Carolina Panthers as, “We are going to need to be smarter in bigger games.” That makes sense, because it’s all he and his team can control.

Hopefully the Saints can clean it up and give the officials fewer opportunities to impact their games. Despite dealing with quality opponents and a fine-combed approach by the zebras, the Saints are still 10-2 and owners of their third consecutive NFC South title.

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Nets 9 wins in 15 games yields best November record in 7 years

Despite the injuries the club has dealt with, the Nets have quietly clinched their best November record in seven years.

When the Nets take the court on December 1, they’ll be cross-matched against the Miami Heat and will be looking to win their seventh game in their last nine tries.

Although the club will be without Kyrie Irving for the ninth consecutive game, they haven’t had much trouble winning in his absence. They’ve gone 6-2 over that stretch, but have also managed to win nine of their 15 games in November.

Per the Brooklyn Nets’ public relations department, the 9-6 record in November gave the Nets the best November since 2012. Back then, the club managed to put together an 11-4 record thanks to the contributions of the likes of Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Andray Blatche.

It’s also worth mentioning that the 2012-13 season was the team’s first year competing in Brooklyn. With the HSS Training Center now open and fully functioning, it’s fair to say that the move to Brooklyn is 100% complete and that the squad is achieving at some levels not seen in the city in quite some time.

Entering play on November 29, the Nets have managed to win some close games thanks in large part to the individual contributions from players such as Spencer Dinwiddie and Jarrett Allen, but as a team, the club has collectively done its part.

Surprisingly, Brooklyn has arrived at the 20-game mark of the season as one of the most offensively potent teams in the Association. The Nets are averaging 112.6 points per game, good for 11th in the league. They also happen to be score 107.8 points per-100 possessions—16th best.

Already, they’ve shown the ability to close out close games, as well. They are 7-4 in games decided by six points or less and have won each of their last four contests under such circumstances.

The Nets will enter play in December with a 10-9 record. For the most part, being one game above .500 is considered mediocre, but considering the fact that Kenny Atkinson’s team has been playing without a number of its top guns, the Nets arriving in December with that mark—and the fact that they haven’t done so in seven years—bodes positively for the team’s future.

Cameron Jordan steps into second-place in all-time Saints sack leaders

New Orleans Saints DE Cameron Jordan sacked Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan four times in his team’s win, rising in the team history books.

New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan went into Thursday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons ranked third-best in sacks in team history, with 81 takedowns to his credit. That trailed Saints legends Wayne Martin (82.5) and Rickey Jackson (115) for the most all-time in black and gold.

Jordan went on to sack Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan four times in a lopsided victory, with his teammates accounting for five sacks of their own. That put his season total at 13.5 on the year so far, and 85 sacks in his career, surpassing Martin and putting Jackson’s high-water mark closer within reach (someday).

Back in April, Jordan expressed eagerness to test Atlanta’s remodeled offensive line, stocked with first-round draft picks like Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom. He backed up those big words on Thursday night by barreling through McGary in the game’s closing minutes, including a fourth-down sack to seal the win.

It also helped wipe out from Jordan’s untimely personal foul a week earlier against the Carolina Panthers, proving that he’s prepared to lead by example (and own up to his mistakes) as one of New Orleans’ defensive leaders. With playmakers like Jordan leading the charge, the Saints might be too tough to beat.

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Watch: Vonn Bell recovers his fifth fumble of the season, ties NFL lead

New Orleans Saints safety Vonn Bell recovered a fumble out of Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, his fifth of the year, tying the lead.

The Atlanta Falcons may have just been snakebit on Thanksgiving night against the New Orelans Saints. Things just didn’t go there way in high-leverage situations, like on this third down midway through the fourth quarter.

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan dropped back to pass, but none of his receivers were open thanks to tight coverage by the Saints defense. The pass rush bore down on him so he burst out of the pocket and jogged upfield for what should have been a first-down conversion.

Unfortunately for Ryan, he’s not as well-rounded an athlete as Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport, who chased after the fleeing quarterback before crashing down on him, jarring the football out of Ryan’s grasp. And who should be in the right spot to recover that fumble than Saints safety Vonn Bell?

Bell went into Thursday’s game tied with several other players for the second-most fumble recoveries in the NFL (4), trailing only Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (5). Now that Bell recovered this fumble from Ryan, he’s tied Watson for the NFL’s lead, and he’s the only defensive player to do so.

This comes two weeks after Bell recorded his first career interception off of Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston, a day in which four different Saints defenders picked him off. If the Saints defense can continue making game-changing turnovers like these and cut down on a handful of mental errors, they’ll be able to compete against any unit in the lead.

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Saints punter Thomas Morstead is playing his best football in Year 11

The New Orleans Saints are getting career-best production out of 33-year-old punter Thomas Morstead, who is in his 11th season in the NFL.

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It’s often thought that younger is better in the NFL, with players putting up their best performances before the ravages of injuries and time hit and their peak athleticism begins to fade. But New Orleans Saints punter Thomas Morstead is running against that trend. In fact, he’s having a career-best year in his eleventh NFL season, and at age 33.

To illustrate that point, Morstead saw a punt land in the opposing end zone for a touchback for the first time this season in Sunday’s game with the Carolina Panthers. It broke a streak of 41 punts without a touchback, which highlights just how accurate he’s been when the Saints are forced to give the ball away. Saints coach Sean Payton hates doing that, but when backed into a corner he can trust Morstead to put the other team in awful starting position.

His career average of 46.8 yards per punt ranks second-best among active players (trailing the Los Angeles Rams’ Johnny Hekker at 47.1) and third-best in NFL history (behind retired great Shane Lechler, at 47.6).

While his per-season average has dropped (see the chart below) to just 45.6, his accuracy has gone up, with 54.8% of his punts being downed inside the 20-yard line. That’s insanely good, even for his standards — Morstead’s previous career-high rate of punts landing inside the 20 was 43.3% in 2017. Expand that scope to the rest of the NFL and it’s the highest rate in the league, outpacing Baltimore Ravens living legend Sam Koch (who has put 12 of his 22 punts, 54.5%, inside the 20).

In other words, for the first time in his 11-year NFL career, Morstead’s rate of landing punts inside the opposing 20-yard line is higher than his average yards per punt.

The chart embedded below compares those two numbers year-by-year, with the gray line denoting Morstead’s average yards punt and the gold line highlighting the rate at which he put his punts inside the 20. It’s remarkable:

But let’s circle back to the present. Morstead has punted 42 times in New Orleans’ first 11 games, showing rare synergy with his coverage unit. Here’s what happened on each of those 42 punts:

  • 16 fair catches called by opposing team return unit
  • 16 returned by opponents, gaining 122 yards (7.6 yards per return)
  • 5 downed by the Saints punt coverage unit
  • 4 punts ruled out of bounds
  • 1 punt ruled a touchback

That’s impressive any way you look at it. It also speaks to the quiet improvements the Saints have made on special teams after overhauling the staff and personnel this offseason; they hired a new coordinator in longtime Miami Dolphins coach Darren Rizzi, who brought in two new assistants with him in former Penn State coordinator Phil Galiano and returns coverage specialist Michael Wilhoite. The Saints also invested in core special teamers like Craig Robertson (who signed a two-year contract extension) while bringing in free agents such as Stephone Anthony and Johnson Bademosi during the season. Rookie returns specialist Deonte Harris has been outstanding when the Saints special teams have gotten to go on the offensive. Saints kicker Wil Lutz has won two games with last-second field goals after inking his own five-year contract extension.

Hopefully Morstead won’t have to punt many more times this season, but it’s reassuring to know that the ball is in good hands when his number is called. He’s already earned multiple Special Teams Player of the Week and Month awards this season, and he just might pocket a few more.

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Former Saints Mark Ingram, Willie Snead piledrive Rams with four Ravens TD’s

Two former New Orleans Saints, RB Mark Ingram and WR Willie Snead, scored 4 touchdowns when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Los Angeles Rams.

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The Los Angeles Rams needed to win on Monday night to keep their playoff hopes alive, but two former New Orleans Saints players weren’t about to let that happen. Now with the Baltimore Ravens, running back Mark Ingram and wide receiver Willie Snead scored four touchdowns on the overwhelmed Rams defense; three of those touchdowns were passes caught from breakout star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Baltimore won in a landslide, 45-6.

You love to see it. The Rams of course took advantage of an officiating gaffe in last year’s NFC championship game to advance past the Saints and into Super Bowl LIII; they lost that game in humiliating fashion, 13-3, and haven’t recovered. There was no one more suited to bury their hopes on a national stage than Ingram, who logged 15 rushing attempts to gain 111 yards and score a touchdown run, to go with his 7-yard touchdown reception. Snead only caught two passes against Los Angeles, but they both ended in the end zone from seven yards out.

Of course Saints fans would rather Ingram be scoring touchdowns in New Orleans; it’s a shame that they couldn’t work out a deal in free agency earlier this year. At least he’s having a blast and taking down teams that have given the Saints trouble. Ingram is averaging the second-most rushing yards per game of his career (70.7) with Baltimore, trailing only his 2014 season, in which he first reached the Pro Bowl.

As for the Rams: this loss lowered their record on the year so far to 6-5, putting them firmly in third-place in the NFC West behind the San Francisco 49ers (10-1) and Seattle Seahawks (9-2). Considering two different NFC North are currently in the playoff picture (the 8-3 Green Bay Packers and 8-3 Minnesota Vikings), the Rams can’t afford to lose another game down the stretch to even make it to the postseason. Meanwhile, the Saints are a game away from clinching their third consecutive NFC South title. Things are great.

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6 takeaways from Saints’ win over Panthers in Week 12

The New Orleans Saints took down the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, but not without a serious rash of penalties and some dubious decisions.

Week 12 came and went for the New Orleans Saints, and it did so with plenty of chaos and fanfare. Despite controlling the game for most of the outing, the Saints made enough mistakes and created enough opportunities for the Carolina Panthers to fight their way back into it. But the important thing to remember is that the Saints did win, proving their resiliency. Here are our six biggest takeaways from Sunday’s victory.

Too many penalties to ignore

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

There’s no excusing how poorly the Saints executed against Carolina, especially on defense. They committed 18 penalties on Sunday, though six were either declined or offset by the Panthers’ fouls. Still, at the end of the day a dozen penalties for 123 yards is impossible to overlook. All of those mistakes and self-inflicted wounds — like Cameron Jordan’s uncharacteristic personal foul — kept the Panthers in the game even after the Saints took a substantial lead, and New Orleans has got to clean up its act. That’s easier said than done with such a quick turnaround for Thursday night’s game with the Atlanta Falcons. This Saints team may just be a sloppy bunch. This is their third game in a row in which they’ve drawn nine or more penalties.

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Kirby Smart addresses Georgia football’s offensive woes

Georgia faithful still wonder how the much longer the Dawgs’ D can bail out the struggling offense.

Georgia’s 2019 defense is a statistical anomaly. The Junkyard Dawgs will enter their final regular season game ranked fifth in total defense, second in rushing defense, seventh in passing efficiency defense, and have only allowed one rushing touchdown.

The Bulldog Nation thoroughly enjoys watching a defense that can guarantee a win requiring only 21 points. Georgia is one of two teams (Clemson being the other) that hasn’t given up more than 20 points thus far this season.

That said, Georgia faithful still wonder how the much longer the Dawgs’ D can bail out the struggling offense.

Head coach Kirby Smart acknowledged the fans’ echoed concerns after the Silver Britches’ lackluster offense.

“There were things [against Texas A&M] that we missed that were there. That’s the frustrating thing.”

He continued: “You get an opportunity on first and ten to make the plays that we had, and you’ve got to make those.”

Smart, obviously aware of the situation, added that “some of that had nothing to to with the calls…it had to do with execution.”

“[The defense] got tired toward the end of the game. We’re going to have to overcome that, because two weeks in a row now, we’ve kind of lost momentum late and struggled on a couple drives.”

Quarterback Jake Fromm has thrown under 50% for three consecutive games. Compared to his career percentage of 65.5%, the current trend is surprising.

“Offensively, we’ve got to improve. There’s no bones about it.” Smart The message this week is that the next step is the most important step.”

Saints win 34-31, push past Panthers on last-second Wil Lutz field goal

The New Orleans Saints let the Carolina Panthers play too close for comfort, but were able to trust kicker Wil Lutz to win in the end.

The New Orleans Saints won a nail-biter over the Carolina Panthers, with kicker Wil Lutz pushing a 33-yard field goal through the uprights as time expired. It followed a successful drive downfield that began when Panthers kicker Joey Slye missed his own would-be game-winner from 28 yards out.

It would be nice if the final score of 34-31 didn’t indicate how closely the Saints played this game, but that’s not the case. New Orleans backed themselves into a corner with 12 penalties, giving up 123 yards of field positioning. The Panthers took advantage of many of those opportunities, though inconsistent kicking from Slye (who went 1-for-3 on extra point tries, and 2-for-3 on field goal attempts) ended up costing them.

Good news for the Saints surrounds the increased involvement of tight end Jared Cook, who caught 6 of 8 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown score. Cook consistently made plays after the catch and down the seam, giving the Saints a viable option downfield opposite Michael Thomas (who turned in a typical 10-for-11, 110-yard showing).

It’s been a quiet few weeks for second-year defensive end Marcus Davenport, but something has to be said for his performance in clutch time. Davenport set up Carolina’s botched final field goal with a huge sack on third down and followed it up by leaping over the Panthers’ blockers, spooking Slye into an off-target chip shot. He made big plays in the game’s biggest moments.

So New Orleans improved to 9-2 on the year so far, while Carolina fell to 5-6. All eyes now are on the Sunday Night Football matchup between the projected top two playoff seeds: the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers and 8-2 Green Bay Packers. If the 49ers win, the Saints will have a shot at controlling their own destiny when San Francisco visits on Dec. 8. If the Packers win, New Orleans has to hope Green Bay drops a loss down the stretch, or the NFC’s top playoff seed could be out of reach.

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In cruelest irony, referees enforce DPI against Saints after challenge

The Saints were victims of a rule coach Sean Payton spent the offseason advocating, when referees sided with a pass interference challenge.

The NFL can be cruel. New Orleans Saints fans knew that already, but they were given an ugly reminder late in their Week 12 game against the Carolina Panthers, when Panthers coach Ron Rivera challenged a non-call for defensive pass interference against Saints safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

And he got it. The officials huddled over the instant replay review station and gave Carolina the nod: the Panthers were given a fresh set of downs from the New Orleans 3-yard line. It didn’t matter because the Saints defense buckled down and forced the Panthers into an unsuccessful field goal try, but the fact that this was the one instance in which the officials overturned a call on the field — against a team that was so publicly victimized in similar circumstances in last year’s conference championship game — is such cruel irony. Saints coach Sean Payton spearheaded the effort to make pass-interference (called or not) reviewable, and his team ended up catching the brunt of it.

According to ESPN Stats and Info, NFL coaches went into Week 12 having overturned 3 of 74 (4%) such challenges. League officiating established a precedent that required overwhelming evidence to overturn the result as called on the field, and in this one situation, it ended up biting New Orleans.

Fortunately, it didn’t matter. The Saints followed up that field goal miss with their own drive down the field, capping it off with a Wil Lutz game-winner from 33 yards out. Hopefully this bizarre use of the replay review rules doesn’t hurt them again.

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