Tag: Seattle Mariners betting odds line spread pick predictions best bets

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (77-53) and Seattle Mariners (70-61) meet Monday at 10:10 p.m. ET to open a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Luis Garcia is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 10-6 with a 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 over 123 1/3 IP through 22 starts and two relief appearances.

  • Threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings in his last start and owns a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts.
  • Has struggled on the road with a 4.97 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 11-5 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 over 140 IP across 24 starts.

  • Current Houston batters own an aggregate .936 OPS against Flexen. The Astros scored 7 runs in 4 IP against Flexen July 27.
  • Has benefited from a 9.0% home run/fly ball rate and has recently been allowing hard contact more frequently.

Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:44 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Astros -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Mariners +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+102) | Mariners +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Astros 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Houston is 4-1 over its last five games and is 7-3 with an .834 OPS over its last 10 games. That stretch includes taking two of three games from the Mariners Aug. 20-22. The Houston victories against Seattle were by scores of 12-3 and 15-1. The Astros are 8-5, with a plus-27 run differential, against the Mariners on the season.

Seattle is coming off losing three of four games to the Kansas City Royals over the weekend. However, the Mariners had been 10-3 over their previous 13 games before that series.

The Mariners are 38-28 at home but with a -13 run differential in those games. The reason for that is the root of why Seattle continues to be a solid fade candidate: the Mariners are playing .643 ball in 1-run games and .483 ball in every other type of contest.

In a game with some Over lean, PASS on the money line and shoot for a plus-money payoff on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Houston is 11-2 across its last 13 series openers on the road; that includes wins against the likes of the Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.

Seattle’s bullpen has registered an unsupportable 3.16 ERA in August. A .275 batting average on balls in play has tamped down what could easily be an ERA more than a run higher. Mix in some Flexen fade and the fact that Houston has hit him well in the past and you can peg the ASTROS -1.5  (+102) as a play with some value.

Over/Under (O/U)

There are plenty of cross signals in parsing this wager, so consider a partial unit as your outlay.

A sliver of a lean combined with an attractive price makes for VALUE ON THE OVER 8.5 (-105).

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Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Kansas City Royals (56-70) open a four-game series with the Seattle Mariners (69-58) Thursday. First pitch at T-Mobile Park is set for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Royals RHP Brad Keller (8-12, 5.43 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.65 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 129 1/3 IP.

  • Has a 3.93 ERA, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 over 34 1/3 IP across six starts in the second half.
  • Sports an xFIP and FIP nearly a full run lower than his surface ERA and has been hurt by a .348 BABIP – the highest in the league amongst qualified starters.

Mariners LHP Yusei Kikuchi (7-7, 4.22 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 132 1/3 IP.

  • Gave up 7 ER on 7 H and 3 BB with 2 K over 2 2/3 IP Aug. 20 at the Houston Astros.
  • Has given up 7 ER twice while logging a 6.35 ERA across seven second-half starts; he has just two quality starts in that span.

Royals at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mariners -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-155) | Mariners -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Mariners 5,  Royals 3

Money line (ML)

These two clubs probably aren’t as far apart as their records suggest and it’s difficult to find a very strong reason to take one over the other.

Both pitchers have faced their share of struggles throughout the season, neither team’s offensive platoon splits are particularly favorable and both bullpens have performed similarly over the second half of the season and in August.

The Mariners are one of only four teams in the league to have a .500 or better record and a negative run differential. They have the worst run differential and the best record of those four teams. Seattle is probably the play, but I’m not looking to lay 80 cents on the dollar to back it.

PASS on the money line and seek value elsewhere.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

There may be value to back the Mariners on the run line despite concerns about the game in general.

Seattle has the second-best cover percentage in the league and the fifth-best percentage at home. The Mariners are rested after a day off Wednesday while the Royals are entering their seventh game of a 10-game road trip.

Seattle won by 2 or more runs 10 times in its 13 August victories. The confidence isn’t super high but consider a value-based partial-unit play on the MARINERS -1.5 (+122).

Over/Under (O/U)

Though neither team is particularly electric with the bats, both pitching staffs are capable of giving up crooked numbers with shaky starts and very average bullpen arms.

This number feels just too low and we’re seeing it slightly higher around the industry so hit the OVER 7.5 (-130) while you can.

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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (68-58) and Oakland Athletics (70-56) cap off a two-game series at Oakland Coliseum Tuesday with a 3:37 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 10-5 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 over 133 1/3 IP through 23 starts.

  • Owns a fine 2.92 ERA with 24 2/3 IP over four starts in August.
  • Has been much better at home (2.70 ERA) than on the road (4.92 ERA).

LHP Cole Irvin is the projected starter for the Athletics. He is 9-11 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 across 141 1/3 IP over 24 starts.

  • Owns a 1.71 ERA over his last three starts at home.
  • Is a fly-ball pitcher (35.9% ground balls) who has been very fortunate in keeping balls in the yard. His home run/fly ball rate is an ultra-low 6.7%.

Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Athletics -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Athletics -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Athletics 6, Mariners 5

Money line (ML)

Seattle beat Oakland 5-3 Monday and has rallied after some early-August troubles to go 9-3 over its last 12 games. The Mariners have held foes to 3 or fewer runs in eight of those contests.

Oakland is a near inverse of Seattle’s recent trend. The Athletics were 9-2 over their first 11 games this month but are 2-7 with a 4.79 ERA since Aug. 15.

There is room for regression to the mean on both sides, hurting Seattle and helping Oakland. In the broader view, the A’s have been held back by an 18-22 record in 1-run games.

TAKE OAKLAND (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on pricing that figures to obscure the true odds in between.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is a significant fade lean to these starting pitchers. Both are toting around expected-ERA figures that are about a run higher than their somewhat luck-aided surface figures, and both have substandard lines against the nines they face today (Oakland .805 OPS vs. Flexen, Seattle .957 OPS vs. Irvin).

Oakland Coliseum tends to be more of a hitter’s park in day games. The weather report for Tuesday calls for cool temps but a good deal of humidity and an outward breeze.

The best play in this meeting is the OVER 8.5 (-125).

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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (65-56) have taken the first two games of a three-game series against the Texas Rangers (42-78) with the finale’s first pitch set for 2:05 p.m. ET at Globe Life Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners RHP Chris Flexen (10-5, 3.78 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 through 126 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 5 ER across 19 1/3 IP with 13 K and 2 BB in three starts against Texas.
  • Flexen has some pretty dramatic home/road splits this season. In nine road starts he has a 5.44 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while surrendering 9 homers over 49 2/3 IP.

Rangers RHP Spencer Howard (0-3, 5.61 ERA) makes his 14th appearance of the season (10th start). He has a 1.46 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 33 2/3 IP.

  • Has put up a 4.88 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in nine games as a starter, although he has failed to eclipse 4 IP in any of those outings.
  • This will be his third start since being traded from the Philadelphia Phillies. He allowed 3 ER across 5 1/3 IP in his first two starts as a Ranger including 3 scoreless frames against the Mariners last time out.

Mariners at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Rangers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners -1.5 (+105) | Rangers +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mariners 5, Rangers 3

Money line (ML)

The Rangers come into this game having lost 11 of their last 14 games. They have four losses to Seattle in the last eight days and scored exactly 1 run in each.

Flexen has held the opposition to 3 or fewer earned runs in 11 of his last 12 starts while recording a 3.10 ERA. A couple of rough starts on the road early in the year inflated his ERA away from home, but he has allowed 6 ER in 18 2/3 IP while whiffing 15 batters in his last three road outings.

Flexen gives Seattle enough of a pitching edge to make a play on MARINERS (-155).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Flexen doesn’t miss many bats but has been pretty steady over the past couple of months and he should be able to hold Texas in check. Meanwhile, Howard has a 6.30 ERA across his last seven appearances and isn’t likely to keep Seattle off the board again.

Go with the MARINERS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both offenses have been struggling lately. Seattle has scored just 48 runs in its last 14 games (3.4 per game) while Texas has only crossed the plate 79 times in its last 30 contests (2.6 per game).

Each of the last four games between these two teams has ended up either 2-1 or 3-1. A slight lean to UNDER 8.5 (+100), as neither offense is showing any signs of breaking out.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (62-54) and Seattle Mariners (63-55) put a lid on a three-game series Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Steven Matz is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. He is 9-7 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 101 IP over 20 starts this season.

  • He allowed 4 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 BB in his last start (Aug. 10 vs. Los Angeles Angels).
  • He has clocked a 2.92, with just 1 home run allowed, across his last 5 starts.

RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starter for the Mariners. Across 15 starts this season, Gilbert is 5-3 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 10.31 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9 in 73 1/3 IP.

  • Gilbert logged a 6.75 ERA over three starts from July 24-Aug. 4 but bounced back with a solid effort against the Texas Rangers in his last start (6 IP, 2 ER allowed on 5H and 0 BB, Aug. 10).
  • Unkind batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures played into Gilbert’s recent slump. Over his last five starts, the 24-year-old rookie has clocked a 5.11 ERA, but he has pitched around a .328 BABIP.

Blue Jays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mariners -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Mariners +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Toronto had been 12-4 over its previous 16 games before arriving in the Emerald City. But the Blue Jays have dropped the first two games of this series and will take to the field Sunday looking to avoid a sweep.

With its wins over Toronto, Seattle is 5-1 over its last 6 games. But overall, with 4.19 runs per game against 4.55 RPG allowed, the Mariners are fortunate to be playing .534 baseball. The Jays figure as the value side, but the tag here overshoots any leverage. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Expected-ERA figures reveal upside for Matz (who has been hurt by a .340 BABIP) and downside for Gilbert (who has benefited from a 9.6% home run/fly ball rate.

The back end of the Blue Jays bullpen figures to be more available than its opposites on the Mariners side for this series finale. Seven of Toronto’s last 10 wins have been by 3 runs or more.

BACK THE BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under (O/U)

Batting analytics point to both teams perhaps scoring more runs than they “should have” for most of the season. For instance, both offenses have been aided by generous BABIPs in clutch batting situations. Pair that angle with some capable pitching and a fair price on the underside of this number.

TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (62-52) and Seattle Mariners (61-55) open a three-game series Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Robbie Ray is the projected starting pitcher for the Blue Jays. He is 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 in 130 1/3 IP over 22 starts.

  • Has logged a 1.85 ERA and 0.96 WHIP since the beginning of July.
  • Seattle gets a higher than average percentage of its plate appearances vs. left-handers from left-handed batters. That plays into a Ray strength as he has a career .642 OPS allowed vs. LHBs.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starter for the Mariners. He is 10-5 with a 3.81 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.1 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 in 120 1/3 IP over 21 starts.

  • Has a wide gulf in his home/road splits favoring games at T-Mobile (2.67 ERA at home, 5.44 ERA on the road).
  • Has benefited from a .241 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations.

Blue Jays at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Blue Jays -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Mariners +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (-105) | Mariners +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Blue Jays 6, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

Toronto is 12-4 over its last 16 games and arrives in the Emerald City after splitting four games with the Los Angeles Angels.

Seattle is coming off a 2-1 series win over Texas and has won three of its last four, but the Mariners are just 6-9 over their last 15 and are definitely tabbed as a “too far over their skis” group worthy of fading on many nights.

Friday is one of those nights, but the price on the Jays isn’t great: STEER CLEAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Ray has the support peripherals to back up his surface stats, at least to a greater degree than his Friday mound foe.  Flexen averages 90 pitches per start but has thrown 211 over his last two efforts and is ripe for a late-season fatigue slump.

On a night with a bit of an Over lean, BACK THE BLUE JAYS -1.5 (-105).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both Ray and Flexen have expected-ERA figures higher than their surface figures. Seattle’s bullpen has surged this month with a 2.81 ERA, but that performance has been aided by a .232 BABIP.

Both bullpens are still borderline top-third units though, and T-Mobile most certainly profiles as a pitcher’s park. Still, the Blue Jays’ big-inning potential and just a little giveback from the pitchers are rewarded by a nice price here.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-112).

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Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

After a 5-4 win in the series opener, the Texas Rangers (40-73) will try to make it two in a row against the Seattle Mariners (59-55) Wednesday. First pitch for the second game of the series is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rangers vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Rangers RHP Spencer Howard (0-3, 6.16 ERA) makes his ninth start of the year. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 30 2/3 IP also including four relief appearances.

  • Howard was acquired via trade in the deal that sent Ps Kyle Gibson, Ian Kennedy and Hans Crouse to the Philadelphia Phillies.
  • He pitched 2 1/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels in his Rangers debut last week and allowed 3 runs on 3 hits. He struck out 3 and walked 2.

Mariners LHP Tyler Anderson (5-8, 4.35 ERA) makes his 21st start of the season and third for Seattle. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 113 2/3 IP.

  • Anderson was acquired by Seattle from the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for P Joaquin Tejada and minor league catcher Carter Bins.
  • Anderson didn’t register the decision in either of his first two starts for Seattle. The Mariners lost both games.

Rangers at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Rangers +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mariners -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Rangers +1.5 (-125) | Mariners -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Mariners 6, Rangers 4

Money line (ML)

The Rangers won Tuesday’s opener 5-4 and snapped a 14-game road losing skid. Their 14 road wins are the second-fewest in the league. They have not won more than one game in a road series since taking two of three from the Oakland Athletics from June 30-July 2.

Meanwhile, the Mariners lost seven of their last 10 games, including their last three at home, where they’re still 33-24 on the year. They are 8-6 against the Rangers this season, including 6-2 at home.

Take the MARINERS (-200).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Rangers have the second-lowest road cover percentage in the majors at 42.1%. While they won and covered the spread Tuesday night, they are 1-4 ATS over their last five games and 5-20 ATS in their last 25 games. Twenty-two of their last 23 losses were by 2 or more runs.

The Mariners are 31-26 ATS at home this season and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Their last five wins and 15 of their last 20 victories were by 2 or more runs.

Take the MARINERS -1.5 (+100).

Over/Under (O/U)

Only 45.5% of the games at T-Mobile Park have gone Over the projected total this season.

The Rangers’ last three games and six of their last 11 have had 9 or more runs scored. Five of the last seven home games for the Mariners had a total of 9 or more runs.

Take OVER 8.5 (-105).

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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (58-54) and New York Yankees (61-49) close out a key four-game series Sunday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Yusei Kikuchi is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. Kikuchi has gone 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in 120 1/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Allowed 1 run in 6 innings Tuesday at Tampa Bay and has posted a 2.93 ERA over his last five road turns. For the season, owns a 3.34 ERA away from home.
  • Albeit in limited action, New York batters own an aggregate .936 OPS against him.

RHP Luis Gil is the projected starter for the Yankees. Gil is a 23-year-old rookie coming off his Major League debut, a 6-inning outing with no runs allowed against Baltimore Tuesday.

  • Walked 1 while fanning 6 in his debut.
  • Posted a 5.64 ERA in 30 1/3 IP at Triple-A. Allowed 4 or more earned runs in two of his last three starts prior to his call-up.

Mariners at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:48 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-170) | Yankees -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Yankees 6, Mariners 4

Money line (ML)

This set between Seattle and New York is pivotal because both teams went into the weekend figuring prominently in the AL Wild Card standings. However, it’s the Yankees who have leveraged the opportunity.

New York has taken the first three games of the series. It has been a tightly played series: the Yanks are plus-4 in run differential and two of their wins have been of the comeback variety.

New York is 15-6 since the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, the Mariners figure as a club lucky to be over .500. Seattle has scored 4.21 runs per game while yielding 4.69 RPG. They’ve benefited from a hefty 23-13 record in 1-run games (and that figure has seen some push-back in this series).

For Sunday, the Yanks are the lean in principle but Gil and a fatigued bullpen make for too much gray area at this price: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+133).

Same calculus here, but perhaps consider just a partial-unit play with the untested Gil starting for the Yankees.

However, New York has hit Kikuchi hard before and the Yanks own a robust .767 OPS against southpaws. The price is right for the home side to bury a Seattle club which is closing out a Texas to Tampa to New York road trip.

Over/Under (O/U)

FIGURE THE OVER 9.5 (+100) AS A SLIGHT LEAN. Fatigued bullpen action with bullpen arms being seen a second time in the series, an untested Yankee hurler, and a New York offense that has picked up steam of late: it all adds up to a lean toward 10 or more runs.

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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (58-53) and New York Yankees (60-49) meet for a Saturday matinee at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Chris Flexen is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. In 20 starts this season, he is 10-5 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 115 1/3 IP.

  • The former New York Mets reliever had a solid bounce-back start in his last effort (Aug. 2 at the Tampa Bay Rays: 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER). Flexen coughed up 7 ER in his prior start.
  • Owns a 2.75 ERA over his last nine starts.
  • Has benefited from a friendly 8.4% home run/fly ball rate.

LHP Andrew Heaney is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 6-8 with a 5.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 through 98 IP spanning 19 starts.

  • Making his second start for New York after coming over from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. Allowed 4 HR in as many innings in his first Yankees outing.
  • Has been hurt by a .315 batting average on balls in play and a 17.4% HR/fly balls rate.

Mariners at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Yankees 7, Mariners 5

Money line (ML)

This series between Seattle and New York is pivotal because it’s a four-gamer and both teams figure prominently in the AL Wild Card standings.

New York is up 2-0 in the series and is now 14-6 since the All-Star break. The Yankees have been a decent play each of the first two games, but that bet-ability gets stressed here after an extra-inning game Friday on what was a bullpen day for the home nine.

New York used nine pitchers Friday and its relief effort will be a patchwork proposition Saturday; Heaney may well be squeezed for an extra inning or so.

However, the Mariners figure as a club lucky to be over .500. Seattle has scored 4.22 runs per game while yielding 4.68 RPG. They’ve benefited from a hefty 23-12 record in 1-run games.

The Yanks are the lean in principle but peg the true odds as being obscured by the wide gulf between these prices: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+100).

Some lean toward Heaney and a fade lean on Flexen play into this analysis. Flexen has yielded more frequent hard contact of late and is coming off a season-high 113 pitches in his last outing.

Over/Under (O/U)

Fatigued bullpens on a warm day with a wind out to left-center field.

TAKE THE OVER 9.5 (-125). But consider holding out for a lower total or a better price. Or wade in slowly with a partial-unit play.

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Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (56-50) continue their 10-game road trip with the first game of a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays (64-42) Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mariners RHP Chris Flexen (9-5, 3.81 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 through 108 2/3 IP.

  • Flexen allowed 7 runs on 9 hits in only 4 innings in an 8-6 loss to the Houston Astros Tuesday his last time out.
  • The Mariners are 13-6 this season when he starts.

Rays RHP Michael Wacha (2-2, 4.79 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 71 1/3 IP.

  • Wacha lasted 3 2/3 innings and allowed 5 runs on 11 hits in a 5-1 loss at the Mariners June 18.
  • He has pitched more than 5 innings only three times this season.

Mariners at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mariners +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-140) | Rays -1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -135 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Rays 6, Mariners 5

Money line (ML)

The Mariners swept the Rays in a four-game series in Seattle in June; however, they are 23-27 on the road this season. They have lost two of the first three games of their current road trip and Flexen has lost his last two starts.

The Rays are 34-20 at home and have won four straight games. They’ve won nine of their last 12 games and are 36-29 against teams at or above .500.

Take the RAYS (-190).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mariners are 59-47 ATS overall and 28-22 ATS on the road. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and failed to cover the spread in their last two games. They have not gone more than two games without covering the spread since failing to do so in six straight May 17-23.

The Rays are also 59-47 ATS overall but are 27-27 ATS at home. They are 3-1 ATS in their last four games but are 0-4 ATS against Seattle.

Take the MARINERS +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under (O/U)

Tropicana Field’s Over percentage this season is 49.1%.

Five of the Mariners’ last six games, and 11 of their last 12 road games, finished with 9 or more runs.

Three of the last four, and eight of the last 12, games for the Rays had totals of 9 or more runs.

Two of the four games so far in the season series had 9 or more runs.

Take OVER 8.5 (-135).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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