Tag: San Diego Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-47) start a three-game series against the NL West rival San Diego Padres (68-58) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

L.A.’s 7-2 loss to the New York Mets Sunday snapped a nine-game winning streak. The Dodgers have won 16 of their past 20 games and are 2.5 games back of the first-place San Francisco Giants in the NL West.

San Diego has lost eight of the last 10 games and trails the Cincinnati Reds by 1 game for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Padres lead 7-3.

LHP Julio Urias is L.A.’s projected starter. Urias is 13-3 with a 3.29 ERA (139 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 5 K in 6-5 victory at the New York Mets Aug. 13.
  • Urias lost at San Diego 6-2 June 21 with 4 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 5 K.
    • 2021 road splits: 10-2 with a 2.88 ERA (81 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.97 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB in 14 starts.

Padres RHP Pierce Johnson will make his first career start. Johnson is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 12.5 K/9 in 48 relief appearances.

  • 2021 August splits: 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 3 H, 5 BB and 13 K in nine outings.
  • 2021 home splits: 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA (21 IP, 4 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB rate in 23 appearances.
  • 2021 vs. Dodgers: 0-1 with a 20.25 ERA (1 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K in three outings.

Dodgers at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:46 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+110) | Padres +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Padres 5, Dodgers 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Padres (+120) since I see value in San Diego’s run line in this spot and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Padres.

Roughly two-thirds of the cash wagered is on San Diego, while 80% of the action is on L.A. (according to Pregame.com), Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money instead of the public in sports gambling.

What’s holding me back from sprinkling on San Diego’s money line, despite the Padres being 7-3 vs. the Dodgers this year, is these teams are trending in opposite directions with L.A. looking like the defending champs.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the PADRES +1.5 (-135) for 1 unit because San Diego is 14-7 ATS as an underdog and we have significant “reverse line movement.”

A vast majority of the bets placed are on L.A.’s run line, but oddsmakers have steamed the Dodgers’ run line down from -125 on the opener to the current price.

With San Diego’s back against the wall, I’m expecting an outright victory, but the PADRES +1.5 (-135) is the best bet in this contest.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a half unit because the Padres are 1-5 O/U as home underdogs with an average score of 4.5-2.3 and we have an obvious line freeze in the betting market.

Almost 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over, but the total hasn’t budged from the 8.5-run opener (according to Pregame.com).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (35-80) host the San Diego Padres (66-50) Thursday for the opener of their four-game series at Chase Field with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego had its four-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a series finale loss at home to the Miami Marlins. The Padres have won six of their last 10 games including taking two of three against the D-Backs this past weekend.

Arizona comes in on a four-game losing skid and has won just two of the last 10 games. The Diamondbacks are 38.5 games back of first place in the NL West.

Season series: Padres 8-4.

RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. Darvish is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA (128 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 12 K in San Diego’s 6-2 victory over the Diamondbacks Saturday.
  • Darvish has notched three no-decisions against Arizona this season (all Padres wins) with a 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 18 H, 2 BB and 25 K in three starts.
  • vs. D-Backs on the current roster (151 PA): 4.68 FIP with a .286 batting average (BA), .374 wOBA, .365 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 88.5 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Taylor Widener makes his 11th start for the D-Backs. Widener is 1-1 with a 4.89 ERA (46 IP, 25 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Arizona’s 6-2 loss to San Deigo Saturday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
  • Widener is 1-0 against San Diego with a 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 12 K in two starts.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster (50 PA): 6.34 FIP with a .220 BA, .367 wOBA, .518 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 89.9 mph EV.

Padres at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -2.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +2.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

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Prediction

Padres 8, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a “lean” to the Padres (-220) because San Diego is definitely the right side but a little too expensive to wager on. That said, the Padres have a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen and starting pitching and hitting).

Also, both the Pros and Joes are hammering the Padres in this spot. More than 90% of the action at the time of publishing is on San Diego’s money line according to pregame.com. This has caused oddsmakers to move this number up greatly from the Padres laying -170 on the opener.

If you are leery about laying it with the Padres (-220) then I’d recommend only risking 1 unit on San Diego’s money line instead of betting to win 1 unit. For instance, if your standard wager is $100 then put that on the Padres (-220) to hopefully earn a profit of $45.45.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the ALTERNATE SPREAD of PADRES -1.5 (-135) for a half unit only because of how pricey this run line is. However, Arizona’s lineup is bottom 5 in several advanced hitting metrics and the D-Backs bullpen is also bottom 5 in most advanced pitching categories.

Moreover, Darvish has struggled in general since MLB’s pitching substances policy went into effect June 21. However, he has looked awesome in his two starts vs. Arizona since then.

For instance, Darvish’s two highest scored starts since June 21 came against the D-Backs and he’s had 1.61 or lower FIP in both outings.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+110) for a half unit because despite Darvish’s reputation as a “top of the rotation” starter he’s really struggled since the “Spider Tack” memo dropped June 21. The Padres are 14-8 O/U in his starts.

Furthermore, these teams have a combined 53-44-4 O/U record in division games, San Diego is 20-17 O/U as a road favorite, Arizona is 23-16-2 O/U as a home underdog and the Padres-Diamondbacks have played to the Over in five of their last seven meetings.

My hesitation with the Over here is we are getting to the number very late since this game opened with an 8.5-run total before the market steamed it up to the current number.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (61-47) travel up to the Bay Area to start a two-game interleague series with the Oakland Athletics (60-47) Tuesday at Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

LHP Blake Snell is San Diego’s projected starter. He is 4-4 with a 5.44 ERA (84 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 5.9 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 over 19 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 10-4, with 4 IP, 7 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 1 K against the A’s at home Wednesday.
  • 2021 road stats: 1-3 with an 8.02 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 2.02 WHIP and 1.4 BB/K rate through 11 starts.

LHP Sean Manaea makes his 22nd start for the A’s. He is 8-6 with a 3.01 ERA (122 2/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 10-4, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 9 K against the Padres Wednesday.
  • 2021 home stats: 4-2 with a 3.34 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.25 WHIP and 5.4 K/BB rate across 11 starts.

Padres at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 5:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Athletics -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres +1.5 (-150) | Athletics -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Athletics 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the ATHLETICS (-180) for a half unit because Oakland’s lineup scores more runs per nine innings against left-handed pitching than San Diego’s and ranks higher in both wRC+ and wOBA against lefties. Also, Snell has been awful on the road this season and was roughed up by the A’s last week.

Snell has a 5.97 FIP, 6.7 K-BB% and .415 opponent wOBA on the road, compared to a 3.19 FIP, 20.5% K-BB% and .271 wOBA at home. Furthermore, Snell’s Fangraphs game scoreof 15 for his previous start against the A’s was his second-worst of the season.

On the other side, Manaea’s game score of 81 in his previous start against San Diego was his third-best of the season and his 1.25 xFIP was his best mark this year.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I need better than Athletics -1.5 (+120) to bet against a San Diego team that has the fourth-best cover rate as a road underdog at 10-3 ATS and a share of the best cover rate in interleague play at 9-2 ATS.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+105) for a half unit.

Snell has bounced back nicely from terrible starts a couple of times earlier this year and both bullpens have been awesome since the All-Star break.

Oakland’s bullpen has the second-best FIP in the second half of the season and San Diego’s bullpen has the best xFIP and SIERA.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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