Red Sox Yankees picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Boston Red Sox (48-44) wrap up their 3-game series with the New York Yankees (63-28) Sunday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. hammered Boston 14-1 Saturday to even this series after the Red Sox won the series opener 5-4 in extra innings Friday.

Yankees RF Matt Carpenter slugged 2 home runs with 7 RBIs Saturday and CF Aaron Judge also went yard twice and had 3 RBIs.

Season series: N.Y. lead 5-4 and the Yankees have a plus-16 run differential.

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Red Sox at Yankees projected starters

LHP Chris Sale vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Sale (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start of the year Sunday after being sidelined with a rib injury since February.

Last start: No-decision in Boston’s 3-2 loss Tuesday at the Tampa Bay Rays with 5-scoreless IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
Career at Yankee Stadium: 2-5 with a 3.71 ERA (63 IP, 26 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 9 HR and 11.0 K/9 in 10 starts and 1 bullpen outing.

Cole is 8-2 with a 3.05 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 through 106 1/3 IP over 18 starts.

Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 4-3 home loss to the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday with 7-scoreless IP, 4 H, 1 BB and 11 K.
2022 vs. the Red Sox: 1-0 with a 7.20 ERA (10 IP, 8 ER), 9 H, 3 HR, 4 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.

Red Sox at Yankees odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Red Sox +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Yankees -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+102)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Red Sox at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 8, Red Sox 4

Money line

PASS.

We are getting to the party late on the Yankees (-210) who’ve been steamed from a -195 opener up to the current number according to Pregame.com.

The Yankees are 36-12 straight up (SU) as home favorites and 20-8 SU vs. left-handed starters. The Red Sox are just 13-17 SU as road underdogs, 32-37 SU vs. right-handed starters and 4-8 SU vs. the Yankees when Sale gets the start.

However, I’ll opt for N.Y.’s RL instead.

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN YANKEES -1.5 (+102) because the Red Sox are 2-10 RL vs. the Yankees with Sale on the mound and a minus-60.6% return on investment.

That said, it’s only a LEAN to the YANKEES -1.5 (+102) because they are just only 12-16 RL vs. left-handed starters whereas the Red Sox are 38-31 RL vs. right-handed starters and 20-10 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

BET 0.75 units on the OVER 8.5 (+100) because both starters struggle against Sunday’s opponent, the Yankees are 5-1-1 O/U in Cole’s career in N.Y. vs. Boston and the Over has cashed in 6 consecutive Red Sox-Yankees meetings.

My hesitation with the OVER 8.5 (+100) is the market is hammering the Over but the Under 8.5 (-125) is the more expensive side of the total, indicating it’s the “sharper” play.

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The Boston Red Sox (47-43) head to Yankee Stadium Friday to begin a 3-game series with the New York Yankees (62-27) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Red Sox vs. Yankees nickname odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Boston has lost 8 of the last 10 games, which includes a 4-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays after splitting a 4-game series with the Yankees last weekend.

N.Y. lost 2 of a 3-game interleague series with the lowly Cincinnati Reds Tuesday-Thursday and the Yankees are just 4-6 overall in the last 10.

Season series: N.Y. leads the season series 4-3 and has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.

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Red Sox at Yankees projected starters

RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery

Eovaldi is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 68 1/3 IP over 12 starts.

Last start: Won 1-0 June 8 at the Los Angeles Angels with 5 scoreless IP, 6 H, 0 BB and 5 K.
2022 vs. the Yankees: One start, a no-decision in Boston’s 6-5 loss in N.Y. April 8 with 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 7 K.

Montgomery is 3-2 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 96 IP over 17 starts.

Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 6-5 loss at the Red Sox Saturday with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Red Sox: 0-0 with a 5.00 ERA (9 IP, 5 ER), 9 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 8 K in 2 starts.

Red Sox at Yankees odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:33 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Red Sox +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Red Sox +1.5 (-155) | Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Red Sox at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 3

Money line

LEAN YANKEES (-175) only because there’s a suspicious “line freeze” in the betting market as roughly 80% of the cash is on N.Y. per Pregame.com but the line is moving towards the Red Sox (+140).

Common sense tells us oddsmakers would adjust the line according to the market movement so this “line freeze” suggest the House is trying to bait bettors into staking more on the Yankees.

However, N.Y. has a 3-phase edge over Boston in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

For instance, Montgomery has a .276/.325/.430 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line with an 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV) and 6.5° launch angle (LA) in 172 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Red Sox hitters, according to Statcast.

On the other hand, Eovaldi has a .301/.353/.489 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line with a 92.5 mph EV and 9.9° LA in 238 PA vs. current Yankees batters.

The way I’d get down on the YANKEES (-175) is with a “FLAT-BET” risking 1 unit instead of betting to win 1 unit.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS with a “lean” to the Yankees -1.5 (+125) since they are 23-17 RL vs. AL East foes while the Red Sox +1.5 (-155) are 13-21 RL in division games.

But, N.Y. is just 5-12 RL with Montgomery on the hill with a minus-38.5% return on investment, Boston is 18-8 RL as road underdogs and 4 of the 7 Red Sox-Yankees meetings this season have been 1-run games.