Tag: Phillies Rockies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (20-19) and Colorado Rockies (16-24) wrap up a 3-game set Sunday at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Rockies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-1

The Phillies won 7-4 as -135 favorites at the Rockies Saturday. Philadelphia has won 5 consecutive games after losing 6 straight.

The Rockies closed as +125 home underdogs in Saturday’s loss. Colorado has lost back-to-back games after winning its 3-game series at the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1.

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Phillies at Rockies projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Nola (3-2, 4.44 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 48 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in an 8-4 win vs. Toronto Blue Jays Tuesday
  • Career vs. Rockies: 4-1, 3.42 ERA (50 IP, 19 ER), 48 H, 6 HR, 9 BB, 59 K in 8 starts

Freeland (3-4, 3.57 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 45 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 2-0 loss at Pirates Monday
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-3, 4.20 ERA (30 IP, 14 ER), 29 H, 5 HR, 10 BB, 29 K in 7 starts

Phillies at Rockies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Rockies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-110) | Rockies +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Rockies 4

Moneyline

PASS.

The Phillies (-165) should win their 6th straight game, but there is no need to pay the higher price on the moneyline when Philadelphia should win by multiple runs. Bet the run line and/or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-110).

Six of Philadelphia’s last 7 wins have been by multiple runs. The Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. teams with a losing record and should be able to win by margin vs. the Rockies, who are just 7-11 at home this season. Seven of Colorado’s last 8 losses have been by multiple runs and the Rockies should struggle to keep it close Sunday vs. Nola and the Phillies.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 10.5 (+100).

The Under is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last 4 road games vs. teams with a losing record and 8-1 in its last 9 after a win. These teams have played low-scoring games vs. each other recently, with the Under hitting in 5 of the last 6 meetings, and Sunday’s matchup should stay under the total once again with Nola on the mound for Philadelphia.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (4-7) continue their three-game set at the Colorado Rockies (7-3) Tuesday. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Colorado beat Philly 4-1 in the series opener Monday as Rockies SP Chad Kuhl had a quality start with 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 4 K.

Phillies at Rockies: Projected starters

RHP Kyle Gibson vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Gibson (1-1, 3.09 ERA) makes his third start. He lost at the Miami Marlins 4-3 in his last outing Thursday as he surrendered 4 ER on 5 H and 3 BB with 6 K over 4 2/3 IP.

  • vs. Rockies on the current roster: 2.87 FIP with a .135 batting average (BA), .201 wOBA, .188 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.4 K% and 84.3 mph exit velocity (EV) in 59 plate appearances (PA).

Freeland (0-2, 10.00 ERA) makes his third start. He was shelled 5-2 in a home loss to the Chicago Cubs Thursday. He went 5 1/3 IP, allowing 5 ER on 9 H and 2 BB with 1 K.

  • 2021 vs. Phillies: Loss, 6-1, in 6 IP with 4 ER on 5 H and 4 BB in one start.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 6.77 FIP with a .205 BA, .310 wOBA, .412 xSLG, 19.2 K% and 83.8 mph EV in 52 PA.

Phillies at Rockies and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Rockies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Rockies +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Phillies at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Rockies 5, Phillies 4

Money line

LEAN to the ROCKIES (+110) only because the Phillies have the better starter on the hill and I prefer Colorado’s RL.

Gibson’s FIP is lower than his ERA and he grades in the 72nd percentile or better in EV, hard-hit rate, K%, whiff rate and expected wOBA, according to Statcast.

However, Colorado’s lineup and bullpen have been much more productive than Philly’s to start the year. Philly is also 14-22 overall as a road favorite since the beginning of last season and the Rockies are 53-36 at home over that span.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET the ROCKIES +1.5 (-135) since they are 33-19 RL as home underdogs since 2021 and the Phillies are 8-28 RL as road favorites with a minus-2.6 RL margin along that span.

Philly’s bullpen also has the second-most blown saves since the start of last season. Colorado’s lineup is underrated so if it can keep this game within a few runs when Philly brings in its bullpen the ROCKIES +1.5 (-135) can sneak in the backdoor.

BET the ROCKIES +1.5 (-135) for 0.75 units.

Over/Under

PASS because this is a sharp total, the Rockies have played more to the Under as home underdogs since last season and the Phillies have played more to the Under as road favorites.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies Game 3 odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Colorado Rockies (7-13) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (10-10) for the rubber match of their three-game set at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philadelphia rebounded from a 5-4 loss in Game 1 to beat Colorado 7-5 in Game 2 to even the series.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

RHP Chase Anderson is on the mound for the Phillies. Anderson is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA (13 IP, 6 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 3 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss with 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K’s in Colorado’s 2-0 loss to the San Francisco Giants Monday.
  • Career vs. the Rockies: 4-3 with a 4.68 ERA (65 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.32 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 in 12 starts.

RHP Jon Gray is the projected starter for the Rockies. Gray is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 4 starts.

  • Last outing: Win in 6 2/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 6 K’s in Colorado’s 6-2 victory over the Houston Astros Tuesday.
  • Career vs. the Phillies: 3-3 with a 4.14 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 in 7 starts.

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Phillies at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Rockies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Rockies -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under: 11.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Rockies 7, Phillies 3

Money line (ML)

GIMME the ROCKIES (-110) for 1 unit because Gray is Colorado’s best starting pitcher, and Anderson is more of a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Statcast grades Gray out in the 89th percentile of barrel%, 83rd percentile of hard-hit rate and 85th percentile of expected slugging percentage.

Conversely, Anderson is in the 49th percentile of hard-hit rate, 17th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 18th percentile in expected wOBA and his numbers at Coors Field are subpar as well.

Anderson is 2-2 with a 6.66 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.60 WHIP and 7.0 K/9 in five career starts at Coors Field.

Also, the Phillies cannot put together a winning streak and are 0-6 in their last six games following a win.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES -1.5 (+145) for a one-fifth unit if at all because Colorado has a 16-13 run line (RL) record as a home favorite since the start of 2020 and Philadelphia has a winning RL record as a road dog over that span.

Furthermore, Colorado’s run line price is being steamed up because money is coming in on Philadelphia. So if you’re planning on betting the Rockies to win by two or more runs then wait until closer to the first pitch for a better price.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 11.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because the Rockies are 0-4 O/U in Gray’s starts this year and have gone Under the total in four straight prior to yesterday.

Additionally, according to Pregame.com, nearly 90% of the money is on the Over in Phillies-Rockies and, as we all know, 90% of sports bettors don’t win.

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