The Philadelphia Phillies (19-15) play the New York Mets (17-22) Saturday for the second game of a four-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Phillies-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Philadelphia leads 1-0.
Phillies at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Spencer Howard vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Howard: 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 through 16 2/3 IP over 4 starts.
- Last start: Win with 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 K and 2 BB against the Washington Nationals Aug. 31.
- Howard has made only four starts in his young career. One of them was against the Mets. He registered a no-decision with 3 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 K and 2 BB in a 6-5 Phillies win Aug. 14.
Lugo: 1-2 with a 2.12 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 through 17 IP over 11 games (2 starts).
- Last start: No-decision with 3 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K and 2 BB in a 5-2 Mets loss at the New York Yankees Aug. 30.
- Career vs. Phillies: 0-1 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 47 K and 13 BB in 34 2/3 IP over 17 games (3 starts).
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Phillies at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Phillies
- RP Adam Morgan (shoulder) out
- 2B Scott Kingery (back) out
Mets
- 2B Eduardo Nunez (knee) out
- RP Dellin Betances (back) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Phillies at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 5, Phillies 3
Moneyline (ML)
The Phillies (+145) are one of MLB’s hottest teams, going 9-1 over their last 10 games. Their 5-3 win against the Mets Friday was their fifth straight victory. The METS (-162) come into Saturday’s tilt sizable favorites despite losing six of their previous eight games.
New York is a heavy favorite presumably based on Lugo working as an opener and the Mets relying on the stronger part of their pitching staff in the bullpen. The Mets bullpen has a 4.32 ERA and hitters are averaging 38 points lower against their relievers.
Also, Howard has pitched only five innings in one of four starts this season and Philadelphia has the 2nd-highest bullpen ERA in MLB. I don’t generally eat this much chalk, but the METS (-162) should cash easily.
New to sports betting? A $162 bet on the Mets (-162) will pay a $100 profit if New York beats Philadelphia straight up.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As much as I’d love to chase value for the Mets -1.5 (+120), I am going to PASS ON THE RUN LINE in this spot. New York has a 6-12 RL record at home and a 5-9 RL record as a home favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean UNDER 9 (-110) because Philadelphia’s pitching staff is starting to pitch better recently. The Phillies have allowed three or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games and the Under is 3-0-1 in the Phillies’ last four road games.
It’s only a lean since the Over is 5-2 in the last seven Phillies-Mets games in New York.
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