The Philadelphia Phillies (81-75) visit Truist Park Tuesday to start a pivotal three-game series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves (83-72) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Atlanta has won seven of its past eight games, which includes a three-game sweep this past weekend at the San Diego Padres. Philly had its five-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 6-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams are 7-3 over their last 10 games. The Phillies are one loss or one St. Louis Cardinals win from being eliminated from the Wild Card race. They sit 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the NL East.
Season series: Phillies lead 9-7.
RHP Zack Wheeler is Philly’s projected starter. Wheeler is 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA (206 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 31 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 victory vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
- Wheeler is 2-1 in four starts against Atlanta this season with a 1.35 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 5.7 K/BB.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.15 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .328 wOBA, .379 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.6 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 199 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Charlie Morton makes his 32nd start for the Braves. Morton is 13-6 with a 3.53 ERA (176 IP, 69 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K in Atlanta’s 6-4 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday.
- Morton is 2-2 against Philly this year with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 9 BB and 21 K in four starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.50 FIP with a .284 BA, .320 wOBA, .365 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 85.4 mph EV in 182 PA.
Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 2
Money line (ML)
GIMME the BRAVES (-130) for 1 unit because their lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Phillies’ relief pitching has been awful this month.
For instance, Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher than Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA and has the seventh-best hard-hit rate in the majors compared to the Phillies’ 25th-best hard-hit rate against righties.
Furthermore, the Philly bullpen’s ERA is more than 2 runs higher than Atlanta’s in September, and the Phillies relief pitching ranks in the bottom-8 of the league in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because betting on Atlanta to cover at home has been very costly this season—the Braves are 18-46 ATS as home favorites—while Philly has been great for backers in away games—the Phillies are 30-14 ATS as a road underdog. Also, eight of the 16 Phillies-Braves meetings this season have been decided by a single run.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-107) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I much prefer Atlanta straight-up than the total in this contest.
However, this is a “pros vs. joes” game in the betting market, according to Pregame.com. More than 70% of the cash is wagered on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. But, the sportsbooks are reacting to the presumed sharp money as the total has been brought down from the 8-run opener to the current price.
That said, both lineups are stacked with mashers including the reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman and one of the favorites to win the 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper. Plus Philly’s bullpen could certainly get raked, and Atlanta is 15-14 O/U when Morton gets the start.
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