Back when the 2020 NFL schedule was announced, many posited that the league – in preparation for potential COVID-19 delays – would front-load the schedule with non-conference games. The league went in a different direction, and thanks to the work done by the organizations in keeping players healthy to date, we now have some divisional games of maximum importance to look forward to.
One kicks off Sunday when the Green Bay Packers take on their rivals the Minnesota Vikings on the road. Most experts look at these two teams as the cream of the crop in the NFC North, which means this is an early – but big – contest.
Here are some schematic elements to watch for when this kicks off.
When the Packers have the football
The Minnesota Vikings are looking at a new-look secondary in 2020, at least at the cornerback spots. The starting tandem from a season ago, Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes, is out, along with Macknesie Alexander. In their place? Holton Hill and Mike Hughes, although you can probably expect to see rookies Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler in the mix as well.
You can bet they’ll be focused on Green Bay wideout Davante Adams.
While the Vikings kept Adams out of the end zone in their two meetings last year, the WR still did some damage. Over those two contests Adams saw 25 targets, pulling in 20 of those for 222 yards. Studying those targets and receptions gives you a flavor of the various ways Matt LaFleur gets his talented wide receiver involved in the passing game.
We start with two plays from their Week 16 meeting:
On the first design, Adams aligns as the outside receiver in a trips formation. While the two inside receivers release vertically Adams crosses underneath them on the shallow route. Minnesota is in zone coverage, and the vertical stressors cause the zone defenders to retreat a bit, creating space for Adams working underneath.
On the second example, Adams is again on the outside and runs an in cut after pressing vertically, and beats the man coverage.
However, similar to the Vikings – as we will get to in a moment – the Packers also want to be using play-action as a staple in their offense. In 2018 the Packers were dreadful using play-action. First off, they hardly used play-action designs, as only 20% of their offensive plays in 2018 were such calls. This was good for just 20th overall in the league. Now when you see the results, you might understand. On straight dropbacks (plays without play-action) the Packers posted a passing DVOA of 27.6%, which was sixth-best in the league.
When they employed play-action? Their DVOA plummeted to just 2.7%, which was ranked 25th in the league. Their DVOA difference of -22.6% was ranked 29th in the league.
These numbers were also reflected in Rodgers’ production – or lack thereof – on play-action plays. In 2018 Rodgers saw his completion percentage fall by 1.1% when using play-action versus a traditional dropback design. Furthermore, his Yards Per Attempt fell from 7.5 when using a traditional dropback, to 7.1 when using play-action. That dip in completion percentage of 1.1% was the sixth-most in the league, and the dropoff in YPA tied him for last in the league with Mitchell Trubisky. In 2018, those two NFC North passers were the only quarterbacks to see a drop in YPA when moving from a traditional dropback design to a play-action concept.
It probably goes without saying, but when you’re in a category with Mitchell Trubisky it might not be the best news…
Last year, however, under LaFleur the Packers made more use of play-action, and the results translated to the field and the stat sheet. While in 2018 play-action concepts composed just 20.1% of Rodgers’ passing plays, that number jumped a bit to 26.1% in 2019. That moved the veteran quarterback from 19th in the league among qualified passers (defined as those who attempted 50% of their teams passes) and second-to-last to 12th in the league. A not insignificant move.
Furthermore, Rodgers’ production on these plays was much improved. In 2019 his completion percentage was 5.0% better on play-action plays as opposed to traditional dropbacks (placing him 10th in the league) and his YPA was an increase of 0.4 on play-action plays.
Pairing play-action with throws to Adams should be a huge part of their game plans in 2020, as it seemed back in Week 2 against Minnesota. On this first example the Packers give Minnesota a taste of their own medicine, showing outside zone and then booting the quarterback to the left, before he finds Adams on a crossing route:
But this play is my favorite of them all, and it is Green Bay’s first play of the game, meaning it was part of the scripted plays from LaFleur. Green Bay shows the Vikings a Yankee concept, which is a maximum-protection, two-receiver route consisting of a pair of deep crossing routes. Only Adams breaks off his crosser, running a deep corner route. The traditional Yankee design is drawn in black, with Adams’s actual route displayed in red:
It works to perfection:
If I’m Matt LaFleur, I want to do two things offensively in each game: Get Adams involved, and rely on play-action. As we saw last year – and as the Vikings need to be ready for – he was able to do both against Minnesota.
When the Vikings have the football
Last year under Kevin Stefanski the Vikings’ offense had a definitive flavor. Run the football using zone designs – including a heavy dosage of outside and wide zone – and then fold play-action plays off of those looks into the gameplan.
This was obviously part of their gameplan when these two teams squared off in Week 2, back when Dalvin Cook was healthy. The talented running back got into the end zone on a 75-yard touchdown run, coming off a split-zone look:
Of note here is what Minnesota does with Kirk Cousins and tight end Kyle Rudolph. Cousins carries out a boot-action fake with the tight end releasing to the flat. They’re showing the defense the potential play-action design, setting it up for later. But it still works to draw defenders away from the running lane.
Looking at this play from the end zone angle you can see how the blocking comes together:
The blocking comes together perfectly, and pay extra attention to the left guard and the center.
First is LG Dakota Dozier. As he comes out of his stance the defensive tackle tries to slice inside of him, but the guard is able to react to that stunt and hook the defensive tackle away from Cook’s aiming point, keeping a running path clear. That enables the back to get into the second level, and outrun the free safety’s angle to the end zone.
But also doing work is center Garrett Bradbury. Watch him wash the nose tackle down and out of this play, also clearing the road for Cook.
When it comes to the Vikings’ bread-and-butter, the outside zone running play, here is a good look at how that comes together:
The Vikings are one of the teams that use a fullback, and involve that player in the blocking scheme. Here, as the blocking washes to the left, Cook sees how the blocks set up and as such bends this back to the right, ripping off a nice gain through the interior.
Minnesota’s dual personalities – outside zone and play-action off it – were evident on back-to-back plays in the first quarter. First, on a 2nd and 7, they ran outside zone with the fullback in front of Cook for a ten-yard gain:
Then on the very next play, Minnesota shows zone, but turn to play-action off that look:
Now, Cousins gets pressured off the edges and does a good job of evading that duress, but this is where the Vikings want to be as an offense. Using play-action off their bread-and-butter zone running designs.
Even though Stefanski is now in Cleveland, you can expect this to continue under their new offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak. Kubiak, after all, is perhaps the main proponents of such an offensive philosophy.
Meaning the Packers best be ready for these looks on Sunday.