The Oakland Athletics (77-66) visit the Kansas City Royals (65-78) Tuesday to begin a three-game series at Kauffman Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Athletics vs. Royals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Athletics lead 3-1.
RHP Frankie Montas is Oakland’s projected starter. He is 12-9 with a 3.57 ERA (163 2/3 IP, 65 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 28 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K Wednesday against the Chicago White Sox.
- Montas lost to K.C., 6-1, June 10 with a stat line of 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
- vs. Royals on the current roster (53 PA): 2.05 FIP with a .235 batting average, .267 wOBA, .359 expected slugging percentage, 26.4 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity.
RHP Jackson Kowar takes the hill for the Royals. He is 0-3 with a 9.53 ERA (17 IP, 18 ER), 21 H, 11 BB and 15 K over four starts and one relief appearance in his rookie season.
- Last outing: Loss, 7-3, with 6 IP, 6 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K Sept. 7 at the Baltimore Orioles.
- Kowar lost to Oakland, 11-2, June 12 with 1 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 1 K.
Athletics at Royals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Athletics -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Royals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Against the spread/ATS: Athletics -1.5 (-110) | Royals +1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
Athletics 6, Royals 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the ATHLETICS (-180) only because this is a little more than I’d like to pay for an outright victory and would entertain throwing Oakland’s money line into a parlay with a similarly priced line for a plus-money payout. I’m skeptical about backing the Athletics at this price because they have a worse winning percentage than the Royals over the past 10, 20 and 30 games.
However, Kowar hasn’t found his groove in the majors yet and K.C. is 0-4 when he starts. Also, Montas has been locked in since the All-Star break. He is 4-2 in the second half of the year with a 2.26 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.0 K/BB and 10 of Montas’ previous 11 outings were quality starts.
Lastly, both the “wiseguys” and the public are backing the Athletics in this spot, which makes sense considering Oakland has an edge in the three most important phases of baseball: starting and relief pitching, and hitting.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Athletics -1.5 (-110) because it’s most likely the right side but I’m worried about the Royals sneaking in the backdoor against Oakland’s struggling bullpen.
Athletics relievers are 23rd or worse in several advanced pitching metrics since the All-Star break such as xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and WAR while K.C.’s bullpen has the best WAR in the second half of the year.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) for one-third of a third unit because the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over at the time of writing, according to Pregame.com. Typically, it’s more profitable to follow the money in sports betting.
On top of that, Oakland plays more to the Under as a road favorite, the Athletics are 12-16 O/U when Montas is on the mound and K.C. is 12-23-2 O/U as a home underdog. Again, K.C.’s bullpen has been awesome in the second half.
Also see: 2021 World Series odds for all teams
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