North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Game Preview

North Carolina vs Duke prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2

North Carolina vs Duke prediction, game preview, how to watch: Saturday, October 2


North Carolina vs Duke How To Watch

Date: Saturday, October 2
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
How To Watch: ESPN2
Record: North Carolina (2-2), Duke (3-1)
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North Carolina vs Duke Game Preview


Why Duke Will Win

Can the Blue Devils really get the O going enough to push through an embattled North Carolina D?

Duke has been almost perfectly balanced throughout the first four games – it would’ve and should’ve been 4-0 if it didn’t screw up and give away the opener against Charlotte. There’s a chance the Blue Devils might just have the better offense.

Georgia Tech was all but unstoppable when QB Jeff Sims stepped in and ripped through the Tar Heels in a stunning 45-22 win. Duke has to take charge in the same way, and it has the running game to do it.

North Carolina has a problem with turnovers, and its line isn’t giving Sam Howell any time to work, but it’s that defense that couldn’t get off the field last week that’s the real problem. However …

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Why North Carolina Will Win

Mr. Howell is rolling.

He’s been beaten up and battered, but he has also thrown for close to 1,000 yards in the last three games with ten touchdown passes. The passing game has worked just fine, but can the defense hold serve enough to get by?

The D hasn’t been that awful.

Virginia is bombing away on everyone – the Tar Heels beat the Cavaliers despite giving up 553 passing yards – and Georgia Tech just had a good day. If Howell is on, the Tar Heel passing game will take over.

But …

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What’s Going To Happen

Howell hasn’t actually been all that amazing in his two games against Duke. North Carolina won both of them, but he didn’t bomb away and he had the worst game of his career in the 20-17 win in 2019.

Yeah, Duke is the 3-1 team in this and North Carolina is reeling, but it’s a little misleading. The Blue Devils beat North Carolina A&T, Northwestern, and Kansas – and they couldn’t handle the passing game in the second half of either game.

The North Carolina offense will go off.

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North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Line

North Carolina 44, Duke 27
Line: North Carolina -19.5, o/u: 72
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 3

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North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Game Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils prediction and game preview.

North Carolina vs Duke prediction and game preview.


North Carolina vs Duke Broadcast

Date: Saturday, November 7
Game Time: 12:00 ET
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
Network: ESPN2

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North Carolina (4-2) vs Duke (2-5) Game Preview

For latest lines and to bet on college football, go to BetMGM


Why North Carolina Will Win

Don’t be blinded by the big performances from bad Syracuse and Charlotte teams – Duke’s offense isn’t that great. When it presses, it makes a ton of mistakes, and it’s going to have to press.

Can the Blue Devils stop good passing games? Not really. It held down Charlotte and Georgia Tech – neither one is Alabama bombing away – and allowed 248 yards or more to everyone else.

North Carolina’s offense hasn’t been consistent for a full four quarters game-in-and-game-out, but the passing game is the most efficient in the ACC, Sam Howell is bombing away for an attack that’s averaging close to 16 yards per completion, and the offense can run, too.

The Tar Heels are averaging 532 yards of total offense per game, but …

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Why Duke Will Win

North Carolina is weird.

The offense can hang with anyone, but the team was too sleepy against Florida State, didn’t wake up until late, and lost. The team was too sleepy against Virginia, didn’t wake up until late, and lost.

North Carolina is far better than Florida State and Virginia, and it didn’t play like it.

The defense is getting torched through the air against relatively mediocre quarterbacks, and the run defense has allowed 210 yards or more in three of the last four games. Duke’s ground game has been great against the struggling defenses, and that’s North Carolina’s.

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What’s Going To Happen

Can Deon Jackson run for over 100 yards? The Duke senior has hit the 100-yard mark twice, and the team won both games – their only two wins of the year. Duke has been running more to offset all the turnover problems, but it’s not going to be enough.

North Carolina will give up too many points to feel comfortable, but the offense will keep on pressing against the Blue Devil secondary that will be overwhelmed throughout.

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North Carolina vs Duke Prediction, Line

North Carolina 38, Duke 24
Bet on North Carolina vs Duke with BetMGM
North Carolina -11.5, o/u: 63
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3

Must See Rating: 2.5

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North Carolina at Duke college basketball odds, picks and best bets

Analyzing North Carolina at Duke sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks and tips.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (13-17, 6-13 in the ACC) visit their Atlantic Coast Conference rival, the Duke Blue Devils (24-6, 14-5 in the ACC),  Saturday for a 6 p.m. ET tip-off at the Cameron Indoor Stadium. We analyze the North Carolina-Duke odds and betting lines, with college basketball betting advice and tips around this matchup.

North Carolina at Duke: Three things you need to know

  1. North Carolina is playing its best basketball of the season. The Tar Heels are on a three-game winning streak (all against ACC competition) following a seven-game losing streak. Duke has been struggling lately losing two of its last three games.
  2. North Carolina lost a heartbreaker, 98-96, in the first game this season against Duke thanks to Wendell Moore Jr.’s buzzer-beating putback in overtime. 
  3. Duke got revenge against North Carolina State in its previous game, 88-69 on March 2, after the Wolfpack upset the Blue Devils on NC State’s home floor. 

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North Carolina at Duke: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Duke 78, North Carolina 70

Moneyline (ML)

North Carolina (+475) out-rebounded and shot better from the field than Duke -667 in their first meeting. The Tar Heels’ major flaw in that game was committing 18 turnovers to the Blue Devils’ 11. Both teams are stacked with well-recruited talent. The key matchups of Duke’s PG Tre Jones and C Vernon Carey Jr. versus North Carolina’s PG Cole Anthony and PF Garrison Brooks were essentially draws. It’s hard to fathom the Tar Heels scoring an upset in Duke after blowing a double-digit lead in their own home. We certainly aren’t spending the exorbitant Duke moneyline price. PASS ON THE MONEYLINE.

Against the Spread (ATS)

North Carolina +11.5 (-125) have covered five consecutive games, and six out of seven, against Duke -11.5 (+105). Plus Duke has been struggling lately losing two of its last three games and are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games. The Tar Heels get up for tough teams on the road—they are 6-4 ATS versus winning teams. Also, Duke is 1-3 ATS when laying 10-12 points.

LIKE NORTH CAROLINA +11.5 (-125).

Over/Under (O/U)

The last North Carolina-Duke game went Over the projected total, snapping a six-game Under streak. I think Saturday’s game will go Under, but it’s only a slight LEAN toward UNDER 152.5 (-110). It’s only a lean though because Duke has a 21-9 Over/Under record on the season, and both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils went Over the projected total in five of their previous six games.

Want some action on this matchup? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Geoffery_Clark and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

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