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Coming off a week when 7 of 14 underdogs won outright and teams with reputations for being playoff regulars took a punch to the face, bettors are little more leery heading into Week 7.
This week we take players from 5 teams that are in the mix to make a Super Bowl run, but most of them are struggling out of the gate, making this week one when where big-timers either step up or step off.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 7 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
We avoid quarterbacks this week, but the specter of the quarterbacks involved with have their fingerprints all over their performances.
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NFL week 7 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at Friday at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb UNDER 74.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Ravens, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
Chubb is a dominant back, but the Ravens make a point of packing the box to limit his production.
He has topped this number only once in the last 5 meetings with the Ravens and has 60 or fewer rushing yards in the other 4. He is capable of carrying the offense, but the Ravens play a style that force a suspect QB to prove he can beat them. Suspect QBs have been Cleveland’s DNA for 20 years.
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Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase OVER 79.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Falcons, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
I’m convinced the Bengals are going to beat up the Falcons and it won’t be a close game. QB Joe Burrow’s Over/Under for passing yards is 283.5, which means the expectation is that there will be a lot of passing going on.
If Burrow is to come close to that number, it will likely require at least a couple downfield bombs to Chase. I can easily see a 40-yard play in there somewhere, which doesn’t leave a lot more to accomplish the rest of the way.
Also see: All Week 7 odds and lines
Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott UNDER 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
– Host Lions, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
I’m not completely done with Elliott, but it’s clear RB Tony Pollard is the more explosive, more productive option. At the end of the season, the Cowboys may well be done with Zeke.
With QB Dak Prescott expected to start Sunday, the impression is the Cowboys will pass more. That would be nice to see, but he’s shaking off rust after more than a month on the shelf with a throwing hand injury.
Elliott may see more playing time than Pollard, but that is because he’s better in pass protection, which means he isn’t running on that play. He might surpass this number, but it will likely take 15 carries and I don’t seem him getting that many in a time share.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-115)
– At Panthers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET.
With the Panthers in full tank mode, I could see the Bucs taking their foot off the gas in the second half, but in the first half it should be an assault on a weakened opponent.
All Godwin needs is a couple of chunk plays to hit this number and I’m expecting something closer to 80 than 63. He may not have as many receptions as WR Mike Evans, but I see Godwin making the downfield plays that break the Panthers’ back.
More NFL Week 7 picks and predictions
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