NFL over/under betting – Page 8

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 5

Take advantage of these player prop bets for easy money.

In the final week before the bye weeks start limiting your choices, there are several key matchups that should help take you to the pay window as we focus this week just on quarterbacks and receivers and give the running backs the week off.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 8, at 8:15 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Hooked on a Thielen

The Minnesota Vikings are playing a Detroit Lions team that is hobbled offensively – their top two running backs, top receiver, and left tackle were all limited in practice. They will struggle to score more than 14 points, which should give Minnesota the ball a lot. Wide receiver Adam Thielen has a modest Over/Under (62.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Teams have tended to put their top cornerback on Justin Jefferson, which will come home to roost when Thielen takes advantage. Take the Over (-114).

Ben There, Done That

There is a growing belief that the Pittsburgh Steelers may move on from Ben Roethlisberger before the end of this season. He’s averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt and less than 10 yards per completion, which makes his Over/Under (250.5 yards and -114 for both the Over and Under) seem quite high against a Denver Broncos defense that is allowing just 6.1 yards per attempt to opposing QBs. To hit that number, Big Ben may have to complete more than 25 passes. If he drops back 35-40 times against this defense, he will pay the price and make the decision move on easier because the Steelers won’t have a choice. Take the Under (-114).

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Hooray for Hollywood?

The Indianapolis Colts can stop the run, which plays right into Baltimore’s hands on Monday night. So much so that teams are only throwing 27 times a game on average (and that includes Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson and Ryan Tannehill). The Ravens will likely look to run, which will come at the expense of receivers like Marquise Brown, who has a relatively low receptions Over/Under (4.5 receptions at +115 Over, -149 Under). While he likely has at least one big play in him, the Colts are going to respect his speed and slide a safety his way and force Lamar Jackson to look elsewhere. Take the Under (-149).

Living Here in Allentown

The Buffalo Bills head into Kansas City where quarterback Josh Allen has a gaudy passing yardage Over/Under (305.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). This one has all the makings of a shootout, because the Chiefs can’t afford to remain in sole possession of last place in the AFC West, where they currently reside. In primetime, Patrick Mahomes is going to look to put on a show and, whether he does or doesn’t, the Chiefs’ pass defense is brutal. Opponents are averaging 307 passing yards a game, and none of them are as prolific as Allen. Look for a primetime track meet. Take the Over (-114).

Up Against the Waller

After being targeted 19 times in the season opener and catching 10 of them, Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller hasn’t had more the five receptions in any game since. As a result, his receptions Over/Under (5.5 at -156 Over, +120 Under) has been forcibly dropped. Derek Carr has been averaging 27 completions a game and, given the Chicago Bears’ defensive issues in the middle of the field, hitting Waller six times shouldn’t take that much doing if the game goes as the Raiders believe it will on their home turf. Take the Over (-156).

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Betting the NFL Line: Week 5

Check out our NFL Week 5 betting guide.

In the last week before the byes kick in for the next nine weeks and the number of games becomes more limited, there are some interesting matchups to keep an eye on.

For the second straight week, the teams from the NFC West butt heads as the Los Angeles Rams (3-1) and Seattle Seahawks (2-2) get the party started on Thursday and the San Francisco 49ers (2-2) heading to Arizona (4-0) to try to tighten up the division.

The week ends with another potential instant classic on Sunday night when Buffalo (3-1) heads into Kansas City (2-2) looking to put the Chiefs behind the 8-ball with the chance to hand them another key AFC loss, which would make them 1-3 in the conference. Enjoy 16 games in a week while it’s here, because after this week, we won’t see it again until the weekend before Christmas.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Oct. 6, at 9:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Los Angeles Rams (-135) at Seattle Seahawks (+110)

Under ordinary circumstances, taking the Seahawks as a home dog in front of the “12th Man” would be a no-brainer. The Rams are a 2.5-point favorite (Los Angeles -110, Seattle -110). However, Los Angeles is coming off a humbling loss to the Cardinals and will have gone through a rough week of practice to prevent a repeat. Seattle will keep it close, but a 2.5-point spread isn’t difficult for any winning team to cover. Take the Rams and lay the 2.5 points (-110).

New York Jets (+140) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-175)

London may not be thrilled that this is the first NFL game to be played in their county since the pandemic began, but it’s something. The Over/Under on this one is 46.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). For as bad as they’ve been much of the season, the Jets haven’t allowed more than 26 points in any game, and there’s little reason to think the Jets can score more than 20, which would be required to hit the Over on this line. Take the Under (-112).

Philadelphia Eagles (+155) at Carolina Panthers (-190)

The Eagles have lost three straight and the Panthers have wins over the Jets, Saints and Texans – none of whom should be in sniffing distance of the playoffs. The key here is Christian McCaffrey. He was back at practice Wednesday, which is a huge relief for Panthers fans. Carolina is favored by 3.5 points (Philadelphia -112, Carolina -108). With the addition of Stephon Gilmore and the potential for McCaffrey being back, this could be a statement game. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (-108).

Miami Dolphins (+380) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-540)

The Bucs have been pushed hard the last two games, but the simple truth is they are a deep team on both sides of the ball that should be able to manhandle a younger, less talented Dolphins squad. After being kept out of the end zone last week, Tom Brady is due to go nuts again and throw 45 times. The Bucs are favored by 9.5 points (Miami -102, Tampa Bay -122). That’s a big number, but not big enough. Take Tampa Bay and lay the 9.5 points (-122).

New England Patriots (-450) at Houston Texans (+330)

Last week, the Patriots gave Tampa Bay all they wanted and now they face the most mismanaged franchise in the league. Houston has scored a total of nine points in their last two games, and the Patriots are 7.5-point favorites (New England -115, Houston -107). Mac Jones impressed a lot of people last week. His bandwagon may start taking on passengers this week. Take the Patriots and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

New Orleans Saints (-135) at Washington Football Team (+110)

The Saints look like world-beaters one week and bums the next, while Washington’s defense has been exposed this season. The Over/Under on this game is 43.5 points Over -103, Under -112). In the last three games, Washington games have hit 59 or more in all three. New Orleans has proved it can put up crooked numbers often, too. This point seems too low to ignore. Take the Over (-103).

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Detroit Lions (+300) at Minnesota Vikings (-400)

The teams are a combined 1-7, but Minnesota is a surprisingly prohibitive favorite at 8.5 points (Detroit -112, Minnesota -108). There’s a reason. Kirk Cousins is 6-0 against the Lions, and the margin of victory has been 2, 14, 13, 12, 18 and 16). After seeing that, I’m willing to lay those points, because teams beating down one team so consistently isn’t a fluke. Take Minnesota and lay the 8.5 points (-108).

Denver Broncos (-103) at Pittsburgh Steelers (-117)

It’s a sign of the times that vaunted Steelers are only a 1.5-point favorite at home (Denver -112, Pittsburgh -108). The Steelers have a lot of veteran leaders and they tend to pick themselves up. They started their season with a Murderer’s Row of Buffalo, Las Vegas, Cincinnati and Green Bay. Denver is good but may be the weakest roster of the five teams the Steelers have faced. For maybe the last time, if they get can’t score 20 points again, take the Steelers and lay the 1.5 points (-108).

Green Bay Packers (-165) at Cincinnati Bengals (+133)

The Packers are on a roll, winning three straight, but there’s something about the Bengals that get your attention. They’re 3.5-point home underdogs (Green Bay +100, Cincinnati -125). This has the classic “trap game” smell to it. I haven’t talked myself into taking the Bengals on the Moneyline, but I am willing to take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-125).

Tennessee Titans (-205) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+165)

The Titans were without their top two wide receivers last week and lost to the hapless Jets. Somebody has to pay for that. It will be Jacksonville. The Titans are only a 4.5-point favorite (-107 Tennessee, -115 Jacksonville). The Titans will impose their will in this one – with or without Julio and A.J. Take the Titans and lay the 4.5 points (-107).

Chicago Bears (+190) at Las Vegas Raiders (-240)

The Bears look hopeless on offense at times, and the Raiders are coming off a short week. Las Vegas is favored by 4.5 points (Chicago -107, Las Vegas -115). While the Bears defense will do what it can to keep things close, critical mistakes on offense will be the difference for Chicago. The Raiders don’t take a ton of risks on offense and that should be the critical difference. Take the Raiders and lay the 4.5 points (-115).

Cleveland Browns (+102) at Los Angeles Chargers (-125)

A classic matchup of a team that can dominate with the run and the other ready to throw on every down, if necessary. Here’s where the rub comes with an Over/Under of 46.5 points (-117 Over, -103 Under). If Cleveland opens a 10-point lead, the Chargers will keep throwing. If L.A. opens a 10-point lead, both teams will keep throwing. This has the hallmarks of a 31-27 type, which blows out the point to beat. Take the Over (-117).

San Francisco 49ers (+190) at Arizona Cardinals (-240)

If the 49ers were at 100 percent offensively, the Cardinals wouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points (-110 for both teams). Only one of their four wins has been by less than 12 points. While 5.5 seems like a little too much to give up, with Trey Lance likely to make his starting debut and a run game that has been gutted by injury, this isn’t the time to face a defense hitting its stride. Take the Cardinals and lay the 5.5 points.

New York Giants (+230) at Dallas Cowboys (-300)

Neither defense has proven it can consistently stop anyone. This one has the making of an up-tempo, back-and-forth game that the Cowboys win, but the Giants keep themselves within reach in the second half. The Over/Under is 52.5 points (Over -112, Under -108). The Cowboys defense isn’t good, and the Giants will likely lose by double digits, but they’ll do their part. Take the Over (-112).

Buffalo Bills (+120) at Kansas City Chiefs (-145)

Kansas City is already in sole possession of last place in the AFC West. The Over/Under is a gigantic 56.5 points (-110 for both). There are three things to consider on this bet. Can Buffalo do its part? In their last three games, the Bills have scored 118 points. Check. Does Kansas City’s defense give up too many points? In the four games opponents have scored 29, 36, 30 and 30 points. Check. Is Kansas City’s offense capable of putting up points? … 134 and counting to date. Check. The 56.5 Over/Under is a huge number that will require almost a point per minute. But this one has the looks and smell of game where second team to 35 loses. Take the Over (-110).

Indianapolis Colts (+250) at Baltimore Ravens (-320)

The start to Indy’s season has been brutal (the Seahawks, Rams, Titans and Dolphins). They saved their season with a much-needed road win at Miami last week, but now have to travel to Baltimore. The Over/Under on this one is 45.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Ravens have gone under that considerably the last two games (36 vs. Detroit and 30 vs. Denver). The Colts have been under this number in three of four games. While they’ll probably light up the Monday night sky after that buildup, take the Under (-112).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 4

Make these Week 4 prop bets and enjoy a reward.

We’ve turned the page on September and we’re starting to see the style NFL offense and defenses are sporting in 2021. This week’s game will take in several factors, including a slow start for a superstar player, a bell cow running back who will be asked to do a lot, games in primetime, and what may be the most watched homecoming of all time.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 1, at 9:10 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Can You Digg It?

Last year, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and yards. This year, he’s second in receptions and third and in yards … on his team! When Diggs isn’t getting deep shots, he tends to get salty and grouse in the locker room. The Bills are likely to blow out the Texans, but Diggs hasn’t hit 70 yards in a game yet this season. His receiving yards Over/Under (83.5 yards at -114 for both) is high given his previous production this season. But, expect to see a couple of bombs come his way and a handful of crossing routes that get him Over for the first time all season. Take the Over.

Remember the Titans

There is no questioning that Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is the most dominant running back in the league in terms of carries and yards. It might appear at first look that, without both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, Henry’s gaudy rushing Over/Under (117.5 yards at-114 for both) seems way too high, because the Jets will stack eight in the box. Henry and the Titans are used to that and won’t be shy about running Henry 30 times, if necessary. He only needs to break a couple of those to hit the point. Take the Over.

Not in the Cards

Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has a modest rushing Over/Under (32.5 yards at -110 Over, -118 Under) and there’s a reason for it. In four starts, he has never hit that number against the Los Angeles Rams. In fact, in four starts, he has rushed 13 times for just 46 yards total. The Los Angeles defense knows how to defend Murray and keep him behind the line of scrimmage and not hurting it with his legs. The Cardinals have practically taken the run away from Murray in their playcalling. This would be an absurd number, but against the Rams, it’s there for a reason. Take the Under.

Homecoming G.O.A.T.

I learned years ago that you bet against Tom Brady at your own peril. He has beaten every team in the NFL with the exception of one – his former Patriots team. He has a pretty stiff passing yards Over/Under (305.5 at -114 for both the Over and Under). While the feeling is that Bill Belichick is going to try to disguise looks to confuse Brady, you can bet the Buccaneers know the importance of this game to the psyche of Brady and the coaching staff will let him cut loose. It’s a high number, but one that he can hit barring a complete blowout – and even then he might. Take the Over.

Keepin’ Up with Keenan

There are some bets that you come to the conclusion they met your number. Los Angeles Chargers receiver Keenan Allen has a high receptions Over/Under (6.5 at -156 Over, +120 Under). To hit the Over, he needs to catch seven passes, which isn’t easy for any receiver. He hasn’t hit seven catches in two of his last three and three of his last five games against the Las Vegas Raiders. There’s no questioning Allen is capable of catching seven passes – he’s caught or more twice already this season. But that isn’t a slam dunk as he may be playing through an ankle injury, so getting a sweet payout for the Under is hard to pass up at +120. Take the Under.

Betting the NFL Line: Week 4

Week 4 betting guide for moneyline, ATS, and more!

We’re starting to get a feel for which NFL teams are looking to make a long-term run for the playoffs and who are likely to flounder. There are several key games that may help prove the case for some teams, including Carolina (3-0) at Dallas (2-1), Arizona (3-0) at the Los Angeles Rams (3-0), and Baltimore (2-1) at Denver (3-0).

However, the prime slate this week may be as good as its going to be as Tom Brady makes his historic appearance returning to Gillette Stadium. The week ends with what looked like a forced divisional matchup when the schedule came out but turns out to be the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) at the Los Angeles Chargers (2-1 and fresh off a road win over Kansas City). Get your popcorn ready.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 29, at 10:20 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Jacksonville (+290) at Cincinnati (-380)

The Bengals are going to begin getting the respect they deserve. Being favored by 7.5 points (-110 for both teams) is a start. If Jacksonville wants to win, the Jags will need to run the ball. But, Cincinnati has allowed just 235 rushing yards (a 3.3-yard average) and that was against Dalvin Cook, David Montgomery and Najee Harris. If Jacksonville can’t run and rookie Trevor Lawrence is forced to throw, a brief history has illustrated that things will get ugly. Take the Bengals and lay the 7.5 points (-110).

Indianapolis (+110) at Miami (-135)

Indy has made the playoffs two of the last three years but has started 0-3 and their season is on the brink of collapse. But, it should be noted that they played against Seattle, the Rams and Tennessee. So far, I’m 3-0 betting against the Colts, because they were the inferior team in all three matchups. They’re not inferior to Miami, which is a 2.5-point favorite. Take the Colts on the Moneyline (+110).

Cleveland (-135) at Minnesota (+110)

Minnesota is a home dog, but the Browns are the best they’ve faced to date this season. The Browns are a 2.5-point favorite (Cleveland -112, Minnesota -108). The Browns have the best 1-2 rushing punch in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland has rushed 102 times for 524 yards and eight touchdowns. The Vikings’ run defense is allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Minnesota’s offense is playing extremely well, but the Browns run game will dictate the pace. Take Cleveland and the lay the 2.5 points (-112).

Houston (+750) at Buffalo (-1400)

When you have the potential for a smackdown of this proportion, you have to give a college football number for a non-conference creampuff. The oddsmakers obliged – Buffalo is a 16.5-point favorite (-110 for both teams). If I’m going to bet on a coin flip, I’m going with the team capable of winning by 35, which Buffalo has already done this season. Take the Bills and lay the 16.5 points (-110).

Kansas City (-290) at Philadelphia (+225)

Kansas City is currently in sole possession last place in the AFC West with a home division loss and a loss to a team that could have a tie-breaker edge in January as a result (Baltimore). The Eagles are coming off a short week after a humbling 20-point road loss to Dallas. While this one screams of taking the Chiefs and laying the points, the Over/Under of 54.5 points (Over -110, Under -110) is the safer play. Kansas City’s defense isn’t good, but Patrick Mahomes will supply 35 of the points needed. If the Eagles can get to 20 with a late garbage-time TD, it hits. Take the Over (-110).

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Tennessee (-320) at New York Jets (+250)

This is one the head-scratchers of the week. The Titans bring too little return to bet the Moneyline. The Over/Under is a tough call, because you have to ask how many points the Jets need to score to hit the Over. All that’s left is the point-spread, where the Titans are favored by 6.5 points (Tennessee -112, New York -102). Give me Derrick Henry and less than a touchdown? Yes, please! Remember the Titans and lay the 6.5 points (-122).

Detroit (+122) at Chicago (-150)

We are three weeks into the season and Chicago has been beaten by 20 points twice. I don’t care about the ghosts of Soldier Field. This team is a mess, and the jackals were calling for the coach’s head in Week 3. Detroit is winless (No! Really?). But, they hung with the 49ers, gave a blueprint for how to force Aaron Rodgers to run the ball and, if not for a NFL record-setting miracle, would have beaten the Ravens last week. I think I want to roll with the second of those two crews. Take the Lions on the Moneyline (+122).

New York Giants (+280) at New Orleans (-370)

Is there such a thing as two teams in a game you want nothing to do with? The Saints are a much different team at home – especially when you had to vacate home because a hurricane locked in on your town. This is the type of emotional return that Steve Gleason a legend. Pandemic and now this? The storybook says the Saints crush the Giants. But, I don’t trust Jameis Winston. The Over/Under is a scant 41.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). The Saints should march in a deafening way, but Winston will throw the Pick 6 that clinches low number getting hit. Take the Over (-108).

Washington (-115) at Atlanta (-105)

Both teams are relative disappointments. Washington’s defense was one of the best in the league last year but has disappointed this year. Atlanta’s defense is heinous as always. Washington’s defense should be better, and the Over/Under is 47.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). Neither team should be able to completely dominate each other, which could lead to longer drives or field possession games. Take the Under (-115).

Carolina (+170) at Dallas (-210)

The Cowboys are overrated (as usual) and every wins gets someone else jumping on the bandwagon. The truth is, they are what they are and, in the end, are mediocre. The Panthers are 3-0, but two of the wins have come against the Jets and Texans. The Panthers have only allowed 30 points, which takes doing even against lesser competition. The Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites (Carolina -115, Dallas -107). While the Cowboys are capable of dominating at home, the Panthers are solid enough defensively to keep it close and competitive. Take the Panthers and the 4.5 points (-115).

Seattle (+122) at San Francisco (-150)

The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites, but nobody has told that to Russell Wilson. He has been extremely successful against a 49ers defense he has played for a decade. Many are predicting the Seahawks are going to be the also-ran of this division. But, with San Francisco so depleted in the run game, they can’t control the tempo as they’re used to. Seattle will find a way. Take the Seahawks on the Moneyline (+122).

Arizona (+175) at Los Angeles Rams (-220)

The addition of Matthew Stafford has changed a lot of things in the NFC West. The best thing for those interested in taking the Over of 54.5 points (Over -117, Under -103) is that both teams are capable of coming back from 10 points down. Both teams have the defenses to keep this well under the point spread, but both teams force the issue on offense and enough big plays follow that style of play. Take the Over (-117).

Baltimore (-108) at Denver (-112)

Denver is a 0.5-point favorite, which is saying the unbeaten Broncos aren’t the better team – despite being 3-0 to start the season. Ironically, the Broncos are a 0.5-point favorite (Baltimore -108, Denver -112). The Ravens are the better team on both sides of the ball, so getting a half-point is a bonus as the same price on the Moneyline is a must-take. If you have a tie, bets on the Moneyline are a push. If given 0.5-point at the same odds, if the game ends tied, you win getting the half-point for the same price. Take the Ravens and the 0.5 points (-108).

Pittsburgh (+230) at Green Bay (-300)

The Steelers have the look of the team that wheezed down the stretch of last season. But, they went in and won in Buffalo in Week 1 and won’t be afraid to throw 50 times against a middle-of-the-road Packers defense. The Over/Under is 45.5 points (Over -110, Under -110). The Packers have the ability to put up 31 of their own, so it isn’t a stretch to think the Steelers can keep this tight one way or another. Take the Over (-110).

Tampa Bay (-320) at New England (+250)

I quit betting against the G.O.A.T. in a big game some time ago, which did good by me in the playoffs last year. Tommy Boy is coming home and the entire Bucs organization is going to do what it can to make a happy homecoming. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points (Tampa Bay -122, New England -102). I would lay 10 points and Brady, whose legacy just keeps adding chapters. Take the Buccaneers and lay the 6.5 points (-122).

Las Vegas (+135) at Los Angeles Chargers (-170)

The Chargers are coming off a huge win against Kansas City, but the Raiders are 3-0, including wins against the Ravens and Steelers. Both teams have played a lot of one-score games, which makes the Chargers being favored by 3.5 points (Raiders -122), Chargers (-102). The Chargers have every reason to think they will win this game, but they’re aren’t in a position to be giving away too many points. Take the Raiders and the 3.5 points (-122).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 3

A five-pack of NFL player prop bets for Week 3.

We’re starting to get a feel for how teams are shaking out in the 2021 edition of the NFL. Injuries at key positions and early success or failure are making prop bets a proposition that gets more qualified over time.

These are five prop bets that you can take to the pay window with confidence, because they make too much sense.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 24, at 10:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

There’s Something About Terry

There aren’t a lot of people who think the Washington Football Team Without a Name is going to slap down the Buffalo Bills in their house. When it comes to a bet on wide receiver Terry McLaurin, those setting the odds know what they’re doing. Washington is likely to be behind in for much, if not all, of this game. His reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -164 Over, +125 Under) is begging to bet the Under. Typically, I don’t like giving up that much to win less. That said, Take the Over.

Chief of Staff

There is a belief that the Bucs-Rams game is going to be shootout. As such Matthew Stafford’s passing yardage Over/Under is markedly high (310.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). That’s the kind of number you expect to see from a team winning by 14 or losing by 14. The Rams aren’t in either category against Tampa Bay. This is going to be treated like a playoff game because a rematch is likely in January. Both teams are going to play it tight to the vest, and it should be noted that defensive players get played, too – and the Bucs have enough of them. Take the Under.

In the Nick of Time

Let’s see if we have this right. Jarvis Landry is out. OBJ is a hopeful question mark. And Nick Chubb has a modest rushing number against Chicago at home (73.5 yards at -114 Over, -114 Under). The Browns are going to count on its run game to win, and 20 carries should be the minimum expected from Chubb in this one. The game is done at 3:45, and Chubb has 20-plus carries. Take the Over.

Headley Lamar

The Baltimore Ravens get the Detroit Lions this week and quarterback Lamar Jackson has a fat rushing number (75.5 yards at -114 Over and -114 Under). There are legitimate running backs that have that number. By all accounts, the Ravens should dominate the Lions, who don’t have the pass rushers to force Jackson to bail out of the pocket and do his magic. Against this opponent, he should be able to hand the ball off to others (and throw it) without being expected to be the primary rusher. Take the Under.

Curious George

The Packers defense has had its share of issues getting off the field, especially against offenses trying to move the chains. George Kittle should be expected to catch eight passes. Will that be expected to hit his number (60.5 yards at -115 Over, -112 Under)? I’ll jump on board. Take the Over.

Betting the NFL Line: Week 3

How should you locate this week’s betting allowance?

This week features games with some huge divisional implications and a couple that could have an impact in January in the NFC.

The Indianapolis Colts look to be the only team capable of knocking off the Titans, and they head into Tennessee desperate for a win. The Chargers are looking to be relevant and going into Kansas City will be the truest test of where they’re at. Sunday’s late window of games will include four teams viewed as the top threats to represent the conference in the Super Bowl as Tampa Bay heads to L.A. to face the Rams and Green Bay travels to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 22, at 8:30 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Carolina (-420) at Houston (+320)

Houston simply isn’t a good team and they will be facing long odds in most of their games. Carolina seems a bit oversold as a 7.5-point favorite (Carolina -115, Houston -107), but I’m not going to be on Houston to win anything all season with the potential exception of their rematch against Jacksonville. Take the Panthers and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Chicago (+250) at Cleveland (-320)

Chicago is likely ready to make the switch to Justin Fields sooner than later, because the Bears have struggled out of the gate. The Browns are 6.5-point favorite (Chicago -102, Cleveland -122). Cleveland has a banged-up receiver corps, but their plan will likely be to run Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt 35 times, which typically ends well. I wish the spread was a point or two lower for confidence’s sake, but take the Browns and lay the points (-122).

Cincinnati (+145) at Pittsburgh (-180)

The Bengals are improving, while the Steelers offense looks too much like it did late last season. Pittsburgh is favored by 3.5 points (Cincinnati -120, Pittsburgh -105). I think the Steelers will win the game, but it will probably come down to the last possession, which makes the cushion on the point spread look better, because this would be a statement win for the Bengals if they pull it off. Take the Bengals plus 3.5 points (-120).

Los Angeles Chargers (+225) at Kansas City (-290)

The Chargers have the offense to hang with Kansas City’s suspect defense and this one has the makings of a shootout the Chiefs pull away from in the second half. The Over/Under is 54.5 (-108 Over, -112 Under). Typically the best advice is to stay away from the Over when the point gets up into the middle 50s, but both teams are capable of lighting up the other’s defense. Take the Over of 54.5 (-108).

Arizona (-340) at Jacksonville (+260)

The NFC West is going to fatten up on teams like Jacksonville and Houston, which makes the Cardinals being a 7.5-point favorite (Arizona -105, Jacksonville -120) make sense as the oddsmakers try to get people to jump on Jacksonville. I would have set the line closer to 10 and still not bite on the Jags. Take the Cardinals and lay the 7.5 points (-105).

Baltimore (-420) at Detroit (+320)

Detroit is coming off a short week after collapsing in the second half Monday at Green Bay and now face a Ravens team coming off a defining win against the Chiefs. The Ravens are an 8.5-point favorite (Baltimore -112, Detroit -108) and should run away from Detroit, like most quality teams do. Take the Ravens and lay the 8.5 points (-112).

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Atlanta (+125) and New York Giants (-155)

Is there a way to bet both teams to lose? The Giants are 2.5-point favorite (Atlanta +105, New York -130) and the only factor that has me leaning the way of the Giants is being at home and being rested after playing last Thursday. Take the Giants and lay the 2.5 points (-130).

Washington (+310) at Buffalo (-410)

The Bills were unimpressive in their first home game of the season, but it was because they went up against a quality Pittsburgh defense. They’re facing another quality defense in Washington and have an Over/Under of 45.5 points (Over -108, Under -112). Buffalo has the offense to put up enough points to hit this number, but Washington will likely give them all they can handle. Take the Under at 45.5 points (-112).

Indianapolis (+190) at Tennessee (-240)

The Titans made a statement winning in Seattle last week and come home to face an Indianapolis team that is 0-2 out of the gate. Tennessee is favored by 5.5 points (Indianapolis -110, Tennessee -110). The Titans have leaned heavily on Derrick Henry when they need a win and creating separation between themselves and the rest of the division makes this game fit into the “must-win” category. Take the Titans and lay the 5.5 points (-110).

New Orleans (+125) at New England (-155)

The Over/Under on this game is surprisingly low at 42.5 points (Over -108, Under -112), but both teams have enough playmakers on offense and defense that the point is too low. It wouldn’t be surprising if there was a defensive/special teams score (or two) and that may be necessary. Take the Over at 42.5 points (-108).

New York Jets (+420) at Denver (-600)

The Broncos are the most prohibitive favorite of the week at 10.5 points (New York -120, Denver -105), but the Jets defense has been surprisingly stout despite an offense that turns the ball over too often. If the Jets can simply hold the ball and not commit critical turnovers, that spread will be hard for Denver to cover. Take the Broncos plus the 10.5 points (-120).

Miami (+165) Las Vegas (-205)

The Raiders have proven they’re a legitimate playoff contender and come up against a Dolphins team without Tua Tagovailoa, who is sidelined with a rib fracture. The Raiders are a 3.5-point favorite (Miami -107, Las Vegas -112), which seems a little low for a team going up against a quarterback who didn’t get first-team reps all summer and into the regular season. Like it or not, the Raiders are legit. Take the Raiders and lay the 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle (-120) at Minnesota (+100)

It’s hard not to take Seattle since Russell Wilson has a 7-0 career record against Minnesota, but this could be the game the Vikings have to win to end that streak and save their season. That being said, this has all the makings of a one-score game decided at the end. The Over/Under is 55.5 points (-105 Over, -115 Under). Both Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are capable of scoring 27 or more points. Take the Over (-105).

Tampa Bay (-125) at Los Angeles Rams (+102)

This is another game that has a very high Over/Under of 55.5 points (-110 Over, -110 Under), especially considering how good the defenses are for both teams. The offenses are going to press the issue, but this game will need seven touchdowns and three field goals to hit the Over. With as strong as both teams are in their front seven, that doesn’t seem realistic – far from impossible, but not realistic. Take the Under (-110).

Green Bay (+145) at San Francisco (-180)

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite (Green Bay -120, San Francisco -105). I was struggling with not taking Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on the moneyline, because it isn’t often you win more than you’re willing to lose betting on Rodgers. However, being given 3.5 points and Rodgers is just too hard to pass up. Take Green Bay plus the 3.5 points.

Philadelphia (+155), Dallas (-190)

Dallas has dominated the rivalry over the last six years, but the Eagles have won two of the last three. This is a tough one, because Dallas is capable of blowing out Philly, but I don’t believe the reverse is true. Dallas is favored by 3.5 points (Philadelphia -108, Dallas -112). It’s a spread that makes sense, because there hasn’t been a game between these two that has been decided by less than six points in their last 10 meetings. If you think Philly is going to win, bet the moneyline. But, I’m with Dallas in this one. Take the Cowboys and lay the 3.5 points (-112).

NFL Player Prop Bet Payday: Week 2

These Week 2 player prop bets are money in the bank!

As we get into Week 2, there is a paranoia among the 16 teams with a 0-1 record. Drop to 0-2 and you have a hole you’re digging out of for a month or more.

The prop bets for this week are based on the belief that the number adjustments on prop bets is being made a little too hastily.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Sept. 17, at 10:50 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

Ride the Ell Train

In Week 1, the Dallas Cowboys decided they were going to play Tampa Bay’s game and throw 100 times between them. How did that work out? They lost. A week later, the Cowboys are an underdog against the Los Angeles Chargers – a far lesser team. By his standards, Ezekiel Elliott has a shockingly low rushing yardage Over/Under (60.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Dallas won’t come into this game assuming it has to get into a track meet. The Cowboys will take their time and pick their shots. If Elliott gets more than a dozen carries, he should hit this number. If he gets 20? He blows it out of the water. Take the Over.

It’s the Story of a Man Named Brady

In the opener against the Cowboys, Tom Brady threw 50 times, while his team ran the ball just 13 times with its two-headed running back tandem of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Against the Atlanta Falcons, they should be able to take care of their business to the point that they take their foot off the gas and don’t feel obligated to get into the same kind of pass-happy mindset. Brady has an absurd passing yardage Over/Under (312.5 yards at -144 Over, -114 Under). The Bucs should run the ball 25 or more times in this game, which makes achieving that number very hard to hit, barring an assignment collapse. Take the Under.

Mister Christian (Oh, the time has come)

Christian McCaffrey returned healthy to the Carolina Panthers after an injury-marred 2020 season and did what he does – account for 180 total yards with nearly equal amounts rushing and receiving. Against the New Orleans Saints, he has a modest rushing yardage Over/Under (66.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under). Coming off their big win against Green Bay, then Saints are chest-thumping knowing that, historically, they have kept McCaffrey in check in the run game. One big run will get half of this total covered. It’s what he does with the other 15+ that will get the job done. Take the Over.

Ain’t Kissin’ Cousins

One thing Kirk Cousins isn’t adept at is being able to make up for a bogus offensive line and put an offense on his shoulders. His passing yardage Over/Under (268.5 yards at -114 for both the Over and Under) is significant. With an offensive line incapable of holding up in a 7-yard drop situation, his options are to try to Dalvin Cook as long as is practical or complete short slant passes before he gets hit. To hit this number, he either needs to complete 30 passes or be so far behind that the run game isn’t an option. The Vikings should hang around long enough that the panic button doesn’t get hit too early. Take the Under.

My Kupp Runneth Over

It’s always tough to predict yardage Over/Under numbers for Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp. He’s going to get his, it’s only a matter of what he does when he gets the ball in his hands in traffic. However, his reception Over/Under (5.5 receptions at -144 Over, -114 Under) is far less of a gamble. The Indianapolis Colts secondary is weakened and, even if Kupp catches six passes for 40 yards, he still hits the number needed to head to the pay window. Take the Over.

Betting the NFL Line: Week 2

Don’t just be lucky. Make smarter betting decisions for Week 2.

As we begin Week 2, there will be 16 teams that won in Week 1 looking to improve to 2-0 and start positive momentum building and 16 teams desperately looking to avoid dropping to 0-2.

There will be only three matchups featuring teams that are both 1-0 and three games with teams that are both 0-1. With 10 teams at 1-0 facing teams at 0-1, there could be a lot of separation when the week is over between the haves and the have nots of the critical early portion of the 2021 season.

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Wednesday, Sept. 16, at 10:00 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.

New York Giants (+145) at Washington (-180)

Hard as it may be to believe, Giants QB Daniel Jones is 4-0 in his career against Washington. That will be enough to sway some to the moneyline. I’m not that excited about it, but Washington is favored by 3.5 points (New York -120, Washington -105). I’m willing to take those points, hoping Saquon Barkley is pushed hard and Jones looks to keep his record perfect against his division rival. Take the Giants plus 3.5 points (-120)

New England (-270) at New York Jets (+210)

Rookies Mac Jones and Zach Wilson are going to see things defensively they’ve never seen live or on film, which is what makes offensive coaches lose their hair. Only one Week 2 game has a lower Over/Under than this one at 44.5 points (-108 Over, -112 Under). My biggest concern with taking the Under is the likelihood of one or both rookie QBs coughing up a turnover to give the other team a short field that adds points. However, I’ll bet on both QBs throwing passes away and taking sacks instead of insane chances. Take the Under (-112)

Las Vegas (+190) at Pittsburgh (-240)

The Raiders are coming off an unexpected win over the Ravens (who are better than the Steelers) but are on a short week and heading across the country to face a team fresh off an upset road win over Buffalo with one more day of rest and preparation. I think the 5.5 points Pittsburgh is favored by (Las Vegas -107, Pittsburgh -115) is too high (I considered taking the moneyline, but it’s too steep a cost). But, all signs point to a Vegas letdown. With some hesitation, Take the Steelers and lay the 5.5 points (-115)

Denver (-260) at Jacksonville (+205)

Jacksonville’s stock took a huge hit with a resounding loss to Houston, which explains their big number against a Denver team that is far from dominant. The Over/Under in this one is 45.5 points (Over -105, Under -115). Denver’s defense is coming after Trevor Lawrence. Teddy Bridgewater is a consummate game manager and, more times than not, needs 10-play drives or more to score touchdowns – a “death by paper cut” guy. They are two quarterbacks who will look to play it safe – one by force, one by design. That lends itself to low-scoring, field position-dominated games. Take the Under (-115)

Buffalo (-190) at Miami (+155)

On face value, this should look like Miami win. The Dolphins can start the season with wins over both New England and Buffalo, but the Bills are the better team. Buffalo is a 3.5-point favorite (Buffalo -105, Miami -112) and, if they’re hitting on all cylinders, they can cover that with ease. I would have the spread closer to 6.5 than 3.5. Take the Bills and lay the 3.5 points (-105)

Los Angeles Rams (-190) at Indianapolis (-108)

I am very bullish on the NFC West and am unimpressed with the Colts cornerbacks, which were exposed by Russell Wilson. The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite (Los Angeles -112, Indianapolis -108). It’s hard to imagine the Colts starting 0-2 at home, but they knew this was the start of the schedule in April. The Rams defense has the ability to abuse Carson Wentz, who tends to fold like a card table when pressured early. Take the Rams and lay the 3.5 points (-112)

Cincinnati (+110) at Chicago (-135)

The Bengals won in Week 1 – no thanks to incredibly bad coaching decisions along the way – but weren’t the better team. They made the three or four biggest plays of the game. The Bears are 2.5-point favorites (Cincinnati -107, Chicago -115), which tells you on a neutral field, the Bengals are the better team. They are not. Take the Bears and lay the 2.5 points (-115)

San Francisco (-190) at Philadelphia (+155)

There isn’t a bet among this that I really like – which is the ideal way to set a betting line – but the 49ers have better depth on both sides of the ball and are being favored on the road by 3.5 points (San Francisco -110, Philadelphia -110). Jimmy Garoppolo is looking over his shoulder and needs to play the best ball of his career. The Eagles are a work-in-progress two years behind that of the 49ers. Take the 49ers and lay the 3.5 points (-110)

Houston (+500) at Cleveland (-750)

The spread is extremely high for the Browns at 11.5 points (Houston -107, Cleveland -115). That being said, Cleveland should have beaten Kansas City – the best team in the AFC. Now they’re salty, at home, and playing the worst team in the AFC (with all due respect to their Week 1 win over the Jags). This has beatdown written all over it. Take the Browns and lay the 11.5 points (-115)

New Orleans (-190) at Carolina (+155)

The Saints are coming off a shocking dominance of Green Bay, and the Panthers coasted past the Jets. Something smells like a trap for the Saints, but they’re the more talented team, and Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara will likely cancel each other out. Seeing as both of them capable of making the big plays that shorten a field, the Over/Under of 44.5 points (-115 Over, -105 Under) seems a little too low given these two generational talents at their position. Take the Over (-115)

Atlanta (+470) at Tampa Bay (-700)

This one hinges only on the point spread or the Over/Under – nobody should bet this moneyline. The Bucs are going to dismantle Atlanta. If the Falcons lost by 26 at home to Philadelphia, they should lose by 50 to Tampa. I rarely like a 12.5-point spread, but I do here. Matt Ryan has a made a career of garbage time yards and points, so it comes to the Over/Under of 51.5 points (-115 Over, -105 Under). Atlanta likely needs to score only 17 points to hit this number. Take the Over (-115)

Minnesota (+160) at Arizona (-200)

The Vikings lost to the worst team in the AFC North, now face the Cardinals, and are on the road again. Both teams have solid defenses, which makes the Over/Under of 50.5 (-110 Over, -110 Under) is a shade too high. To hit that number may require a defense/special teams touchdown to hit. Both teams are capable of putting up big points, but the defenses may require as many field goals as touchdowns. Take the Under (-110)

Tennessee (+190) at Seattle (-240)

There is one overriding factor that makes the most sense here. The Titans are at their best with saddling up Derrick Henry and riding him 25 times. The Seahawks have a back in Chris Carson capable of doing the same thing. This is a game that seems destined to have four or five 10-play scoring drives. That takes too much time off the clock to have an Over/Under of 54.5 points (-108 Over, -112 Under). Take the Under (-112)

Dallas (+135) at Los Angeles Chargers (-170)

There are few things I dislike more than seeing Dallas as the consensus choice to win the NFC East every year when they rarely do – and when they do, they tend to exit the playoffs quickly and quietly. However, the Cowboys offense is capable of putting up big points and are rested from a Thursday opener when they gave the Bucs everything they wanted at home. They’re daring Cowboys apologists to jump on. I’m not one, but I like this. Take the Cowboys on the Moneyline (+135)

Kansas City (-190) at Baltimore (+155)

The best thing that can happen for fans in this game is that one team gets ahead by two scores early. Then, it’s on. For my money, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the two most explosively talented quarterbacks in the NFL. I didn’t think they could put a number too high for the Over/Under. They made it 55.5 points (-108 Over, -112 Under). That is about my limit, but not with Mahomes and Jackson in prime time. Take the Over (-108)

Detroit (+470) at Green Bay (-700)

This one seems too easy. ESPN has to allow a diversity of teams to play under the MNF spotlight, and the Lions are one of those teams. But they schedule them in the untenable position of being offered up to Green Bay at Lambeau. It’s not fair, but that’s part of the TV contract. Green Bay was humiliated by New Orleans in Week 1. The Packers are a 10.5-point favorite (Detroit -107, Green Bay -115). Expect that to be covered by halftime. R-E-L-A-X. Take the Packers and lay the 10.5 points (-115)

Betting the NFL Line: Week 1

The best picks for betting against the point spread, the over/under or the moneyline.

The NFL season has begun and everyone begins with a clean slate. It won’t last for long as we find out which teams look to be improved in 2021 and which struggle out of the gate. We will select a bet on each game that we like the most – betting against the point spread, the over/under or the straight up moneyline.

Odds provided by Tipico (updated Wednesday, Sept. 8, at 8:30 p.m. ET)

Dallas (+310) at Tampa Bay (-410)

The Bucs are coming into the 2021 season as the defending champs and are 7.5-point favorites (Dallas -107, Tampa Bay -115). With questions surrounding the health of Dak Prescott and Pro Bowl guard Zack Martin out with COVID protocol, the Cowboys have too many unknowns to ignore. Take the Bucs and lay the 7.5 points (-115).

Arizona (+130) at Tennessee (-160)

The oddsmakers clearly aren’t sold on the Titans being able to cover the 3.5- point spread (Arizona -130, Tennessee +105). Arizona is a trendy pick to be a playoff contender, but traveling across the country and playing at 10 a.m. body clock time is a lot to ask. Getting more than you bet on Tennessee at home looks like a good call. Take the Titans and lay the 3.5 points (+105).

Minnesota (-190) at Cincinnati (+155)

Minnesota had a brutal defense last season, but have a lot of talented players coming into 2021 that weren’t on the roster last season. The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite (Minnesota -108, Cincinnati -112). While I believe Minnesota will win, this could come down to the final drive to do so, and Minny is giving away too many points for a scenario like that. Take the Bengals plus the 3.5 points (-112).

Seattle (-155) at Indianapolis (+125)

I was surprised when I saw Seattle favored by just 2.5 points (Seattle -130, Indianapolis +105). It has the smell of a trap, but Carson Wentz has missed too much time with a foot injury, and Seattle doesn’t give away games. This one seems like a game that should have a spread a point or two higher. Take Seattle and lay the 2.5 points (-130).

New York Jets (+190) at Carolina (-240)

The over/under is 43.5 points (-117 over/-103 under) – the second lowest O/U of the week. But, it’s there for a reason. The Jets are starting rookie Zach Wilson in his debut, and he’s going against Sam Darnold, who the Jets gave up on. It doesn’t take a lot to get this game over, but, barring a defensive or special teams score helping out, it’s going to be more difficult. Take the under (-103).

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Jacksonville (-175) at Houston (+140)

I’m no fan of the Jags being a legitimate contender, but Houston has completely overhauled its roster and has the potential to only win a couple of games all season. The Jaguars are 3.5-point road favorites (Jacksonville -102, Houston -122), which speaks to how bad things are in Houston. The Texans are going to be hard to watch and help Trevor Lawrence make a solid debut. Take Jacksonville and lay the points (-102).

Philadelphia (+135) at Atlanta (-170)

Both teams have recent Super Bowl history but have both fallen on hard times over the last couple of years. They have a relatively high over/under of 48.5 points (-108 over/-112 under). Jalen Hurts still needs to prove he can be field general and Matt Ryan will start a season without Julio Jones for the first time in 10 years. Neither sounds like a formula for a shootout. Take the under (-112).

Pittsburgh (+220) at Buffalo (-280)

These two both think they have a Super Bowl team assembled and have an over/under of 48.5 points (-105 over/-115 under). Buffalo has the ability to get ahead by double digits in this game, which plays in Big Ben’s strength of throwing 40 times to keep up. Take the over (-105).

Los Angeles Chargers (-108) at Washington (-112)

The point spread has Washington favored by a half-point. It doesn’t seem possible to anticipate a tie, which would be the only reason to take the hook if you think the Chargers are going to win. Washington’s defense is worth watching, but the Chargers offense will do enough to win. Take the Chargers on the moneyline (-108).

Cleveland (+205) at Kansas City (-260)

The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites (Cleveland -115, Kansas City -107), which seems about right. Cleveland is going to try to dominate the game on the ground, but you need long drives to make that happen. Kansas City’s quick-strike ability may force the Browns to try to keep pace and that plays into the Chiefs’ hands. Take the Chiefs and lay 6.5 points (-107).

Denver (-160) and New York Giants (+130)

This is a make-or-break season for Daniel Jones, who needs to step up his game. Denver comes in as a 3.5-point road favorite (Denver +105, New York -130). While I’m leaning for Denver to win the game, giving away more than three points on the road to a team capable of containing Teddy Bridgewater and keeping the game close, it may be asking too much. Take the Giants and the 3.5 points (-130).

Miami (+130) at New England (-160)

The Patriots are being shown a lot of respect as a 3.5-point favorite (Miami -130, New England +105). Without the security of a veteran like Cam Newton, if Mac Jones struggles in his debut, there is no security blanket behind him, and that could be bad news. Take Miami on the moneyline (+130).

Green Bay (-200) at New Orleans (+160)

The Saints are playing their first opener without Drew Brees in 15 years, which explains why Green Bay is a 3.5-point road favorite Green Bay -115, New Orleans -107). Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees, and the Packers will be salivating at the chance to attack a defense with a short field when Winston inevitably makes the mistakes that result in his trademark turnovers. Take the Packers and lay the 3.5 points (-115).

Chicago (+290) at Los Angeles Rams (-380)

Matthew Stafford makes his debut with the Rams against a team he has played twice a year his entire career. The Rams are a 7.5-point favorite (Chicago -110, Los Angeles -110) and, while that is a lot to give away, Stafford knows all of their weaknesses. Take the Rams and lay the 7.5 points (-110).

Baltimore (-210) at Las Vegas (+170)

The only reason this game is on Monday night is a full house in Las Vegas to give the Raiders a national showcase. But, the Raiders had an awful defense last year, struggling against the run and the pass. Baltimore is a 4.5-point favorite (Baltimore -108, Las Vegas -112), which seems too low given Lamar Jackson can scorch them on the ground and through the air. The Raiders will have to pick their poison and live with the consequences. Take the Ravens and lay the 4.5 points (-108).