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The NC State Wolfpack (26-14) and Purdue Boilermakers (33-4) meet in a national semifinal in the Final Four of the NCAA Tournament Saturday. Tip-off from State Farm Arena in Glendale, Ariz., is slated for 6:09 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the NC State vs. Purdue odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The 11th-seeded Wolfpack have rattled off 9 straight victories in the postseason, while covering 7 of the previous 8 outings. They are a perfect 7-0 against the spread (ATS) in 7 games as underdogs in the postseason — 3-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament and 4-0 ATS in the ACC Tourney.
NC State dumped rival Duke 76-64 in the Elite 8. The Wolfpack were 7-point underdogs and the Under (142) cashed. The Under is 3-1 in the Pack’s 3 NCAA Tournament games with the lone exception an overtime victory over 14th-seeded Oakland in the 2nd round, the only game NC State has been favored in the tourney. Had there not been overtime in that game, the Under would have cashed there, too.
Purdue, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, covered all 4 of its NCAA Tourney games. The most difficult test came in the Elite 8 when Purdue defeated 2nd-seeded Tennessee 72-66. The Boilermakers were 3-point favorites vs. the Vols as the Under (148) connected. Otherwise, Purdue has won each of its first 3 Tourney games by 12 or more points with the Under going 3-1.
UConn (35-3), the No. 1 team in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, will face 18th-ranked Alabama (25-11) in the other semifinal — scheduled to tip at 8:49 p.m. ET (TBS) or 30 minutes after unranked NC State and No. 3 Purdue conclude.
NC State vs. Purdue odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): NC State +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Purdue -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread: NC State +9.5 (-115) | Purdue -9.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 146.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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NC State vs. Purdue and predictions
Prediction
Purdue 76, NC State 69
Moneyline
Purdue (-450) will cost 4½ times your potential return. That’s not smart sport gambling, just too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
On the flip side, NC State (+350) is an awfully tempting play as hot as it has been. However, the Wolfpack haven’t faced a player the caliber of Boilermakers C Zach Edey. It will be interesting to watch Edey and NC State C DJ Burns Jr. banging down low.
Meanwhile, AVOID a moneyline play and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
NC STATE +9.5 (-115) is worth playing as we’re nearly catching double-digit points. The Wolfpack should be able to keep it within single digits, even if their improbable run comes to an end Saturday night in suburban Phoenix.
Purdue is just 2-5 ATS in the past 7 games as a favorite of 10 or fewer points, although those 2 covers have come in the previous 2 outings, NCAA Tourney wins against Tennessee and 5th-seeded Gonzaga in the Sweet 16.
Still, tread lightly.
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Over/Under
UNDER 146.5 (-110) is the lean. Go with a half-unit play at most.
The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games for the Boilermakers, and the total has gone low in 3 of the past 4 outings for the Wolfpack, too.
The defense has reigned supreme in the NCAA Tournament for both of these sides, but the Over dominated for both sides during the regular season, particularly Purdue, so be careful. The Boilers are 23-14 O/U on the season, while the Pack are 22-17-1 O/U.
The windows are open, North Carolina!
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