The Washington Nationals (26-40) and Houston Astros (39-29) finish a 3-game series on Thursday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is slated for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Astros and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Astros lead 2-0
Washington is 1-4 on their current 6-game road trip and have lost 8 of their last 9 games. The Nationals are allowing nearly 6 runs per game over this stretch. They are looking to end their southern swing on a winning note before returning home for a 7-game homestand.
The Astros kicked off their 6-game homestead with 6-1 and 5-4 vcitories over the Nationals. Houston hopes to change its fortune in series closing games after losing 5 of their last 6. They welcome in Cincinnati for a 3-game set starting Friday.
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Nationals at Astros projected starters
LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Cristian Javier
Gore (3-5, 4.04 ERA) will make his 14th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 69 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 3 K in a 6-4 road loss vs Atlanta Braves Saturday
- Road splits: 2-2, 3.92 ERA, .228 OBA, 17 ER in 39 IPs
- Has never faced the Astros as a starter
Javier (7-1, 3.13 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 74 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K in a 10-9 road loss vs Cleveland Guardians Friday
- Only start vs Nationals was May 14, 2022: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 5 K in a 13-6 road loss
- Has not lost a game since April 29
Nationals at Astros odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Astros -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-110) | Astros -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Nationals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 6, Nationals 1
Moneyline
The Astros will most likely win this game, but I refuse to pay over 2 units to win back 1. AVOID this bet and look to the run line.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ASTROS -1.5 (-110).
Javier has been outstanding this season. He has allowed over 3 runs in a game just twice in his last 12 starts and hasn’t lost a game since April 29.
When the Nationals lose, it’s usually by 2 or more runs. It has happened in 8 of their last 10 losses.
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Over/Under
My lean is the UNDER 8 (-110) in this game. Gore has allowed at least 3 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts, while Javier has allowed more than 1 run just once in his last 5 starts.
Javier will shut down this Nationals lineup while the Astros beat up on lefties like MacKenzie to the tune of a .259 batting average and a .771 OPS.
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