In a welterweight bout in the main event, Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson meet Saturday at UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson odds, with expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET, the prelims starting on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Diaz was originally scheduled to face Khamzat Chimaev, but the latter missed weight and the opponent changed.
Diaz enters just 1-3 across his last 4 fights, with 3 of those bouts going the distance. He had a unanimous-decision loss to Leon Edwards, the current welterweight champion, last time out at UFC 263 in mid-June 2021.
Ferguson moves from the lightweight division to welterweight for this fight. He was supposed to face Li Jingliang, but now he is matched up with Diaz instead. Ferguson has dropped the past 4 fights, but losses to Justin Gaethje, Charles Oliveira, Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler are anything but embarrassing.
Ferguson’s last victory came at UFC 238 against Donald Cerrone, a win via TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage back in early June of 2019.
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UFC 279 Diaz vs. Ferguson odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Diaz +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Ferguson -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -140 | Under +102)
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UFC 279 Diaz vs. Ferguson picks and predictions
Records: Diaz (21-13-0) | Ferguson (26-7-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
FERGUSON (-135) was originally a moderate underdog for his first scheduled fight against Li, but after the shakeup, he now finds himself as a slight favorite.
Ferguson is in need of a victory, and the 38-year-old should get just that against Diaz in his return to the welterweight division. He has a slight lead in significant strikes landed per minute, and he is much more accurate on takedowns, too, posting a 42.86% mark in the category.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-140) is a decent play in his main event. Ferguson has gone the distance in 2 of his last 3 fights, while Diaz has needed the help of the judges to determine a winner in 3 of his last 4 outings. Diaz has also had just 2 stoppages in the past 7 fights. Look for this one to go the distance.
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