2023 NFL Mock draft: How the first round might go after Miami’s forfeited pick

Mock draft alert! Now that the NFL has taken one of the Dolphins’ two first-round picks in 2023, here’s how the first round might look.

While we’re pretty sure that the rest of the NFL isn’t too happy about the Miami Dolphins barfing all over themselves as a franchise with the embarrassment of an unprecedented tampering scandal, there is the matter of the 2023 first-round pick the Dolphins were forced by the league to forfeit as punishment. That was estimated as the 15th overall pick at this time, and that means that a whole lot of teams get a one-pick bump in the 2023 NFL draft.

The Dolphins still have a first-round pick next year courtesy of the San Francisco 49ers in the trade that allowed Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to move up and select Trey Lance with the third overall pick in 2021. But Miami obviously has much less leverage to move up next year if the idea was to nab one of the star quarterbacks in the 2023 class, should things not work out with Tua Tagovailoa. Right now, that has the Dolphins sitting with the 23rd pick, and by that time, the highest-profile quarterbacks will obviously be out the door.

How might the 2023 NFL draft look with 31 picks instead of 32, and more than half the first round moving up? Here’s one person’s estimate.

Dolphins’ ‘Just kidding!’ defense against tanking allegations is as egregious as it is arrogant

Dolphins owner Stephen Ross claims to be exonerated regarding all of Brian Flores’ allegations. Here’s why that’s not even close to true.

One sure way to deflect criticism when pressed on any statement, no matter how odious, is to insist that you were only joking  Whether you’re a first-grade kid or the President of the United States (there are times when it’s tough to tell the difference), it’s an easy out, albeit with variable effectiveness.

In the case of Miami Dolphins owner Stephen Ross, the accusations made against him by former head coach Brian Flores regarding “tanking” (intentionally losing games) for more favorable future draft picks, the NFL decided after a six-month investigation by former U.S. Attorney and SEC Chair Mary Jo White and, a team of lawyers from the Debevoise law firm, that those accusations were without merit. The accusations regarding the Dolphins tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton, however, had merit, and the team has been punished accordingly.

Ross, never one to avoid pressing his luck in the worst possible fashion, immediately went hard with a statement.

Yeah, well, about all that. When you read the NFL’s statement on the tanking allegations closely, it’s clear that it was discussed. From that statement:

  1. The Dolphins did not intentionally lose games during the 2019 season.  Nor did anyone at the club, including Mr. Ross, instruct Coach Flores to do so. No witness contended otherwise. The Dolphins competed hard to win every game, including at the end of the season when they beat Cincinnati and New England, despite worsening Miami’s position in the 2020 draft.
  2. On a number of occasions during the 2019 season, Mr. Ross expressed his belief that the Dolphins’ position in the upcoming 2020 draft should take priority over the team’s win-loss record. These comments were made most frequently to Team President and CEO Tom Garfinkel, but were also made to General Manager Chris Grier, Senior Vice President Brandon Shore and Coach Flores. These comments, which he took to be suggestions that he lose games, troubled Coach Flores and led him to express his concerns in writing to senior club executives, each of whom assured Coach Flores that everyone, including Mr. Ross, supported him in building a winning culture in Miami. After this, Mr. Ross no longer made any such comments to Coach Flores.
  3. One such comment is a claimed offer by Mr. Ross to pay Coach Flores $100,000 to lose games, as to which there are differing recollections about the wording, timing, and context. However phrased, such a comment was not intended or taken to be a serious offer, nor was the subject pursued in any respect by Mr. Ross or anyone else at the club.

“Every club is expected to make a good faith effort to win every game,” Commissioner Roger Goodell said in the statement. “The integrity of the game, and public confidence in professional football, demand no less. An owner or senior executive must understand the weight that his or her words carry, and the risk that a comment will be taken seriously and acted upon, even if that is not the intent or expectation.

“Even if made in jest and not intended to be taken seriously, comments suggesting that draft position is more important than winning can be misunderstood and carry with them an unnecessary potential risk to the integrity of the game. The comments made by Mr. Ross did not affect Coach Flores’ commitment to win and the Dolphins competed to win every game. Coach Flores is to be commended for not allowing any comment about the relative importance of draft position to affect his commitment to win throughout the season.”

The NFL would rather poke itself in its collective eye with something sharp than fall to any admission about the integrity of the on-field product, and thus, we revert to the “I was just kidding” defense. This was laid out by White and her team, and acknowledged by Goodell, and that was the seeming end of it.

Flores, now the senior defensive assistant and linebackers coach for the Pittsburgh Steelers, had this to say in his own statement:

In February, Flores filed a class-action claim against the Dolphins, claiming racist hiring practices, and he also dropped this bombshell via his legal team:

In January 2022, Mr. Flores, who spent three years as the Head Coach of Defendant Miami Dolphins, Ltd. (the “Dolphins” or “Miami”), found himself without a job. He was fired by the Dolphins after leading the team to its first back-to-back winning seasons since 2003. The purported basis for his termination was alleged poor collaboration. In reality, the writing had been on the wall since Mr. Flores’ first season as Head Coach of the Dolphins, when he refused his owner’s directive to “tank” for the first pick in the draft. Indeed, during the 2019 season, Miami’s owner, Stephen Ross, told Mr. Flores that he would pay him $100,000 for every loss, and the team’s General Manager, Chris Grier, told Mr. Flores that “Steve” was “mad” that Mr. Flores’ success in winning games that year was “compromising [the team’s] draft position.”

Not too different in scope than “One such comment is a claimed offer by Mr. Ross to pay Coach Flores $100,000 to lose games, as to which there are differing recollections about the wording, timing, and context. However phrased, such a comment was not intended or taken to be a serious offer, nor was the subject pursued in any respect by Mr. Ross or anyone else at the club” from the White report.

The NFL is claiming differences in tone and context in this matter, when the truth is, every side has agreed that there were these discussions — thata team owner “expressed his belief that the Dolphins’ position in the upcoming 2020 draft should take priority over the team’s win-loss record.” There is no way to slice and dice such a statement in a way that does not cast serious aspersions upon a team’s intent to win at all times.

Ross’ insistence that he and the Dolphins have been cleared of “all of Brian Flores (sic) allegations” is especially egregious, because the White investigation didn’t even step into the scope of Flores shredding the NFL’s allegedly racist hiring practices. One assumes that the NFL did not include any such investigation in the report, if there has been such an internal investigation, because Flores’ lawsuit is ongoing. In June, the league filed a claim to have Flores’ lawsuit moved to arbitration, which would ostensibly allow the league to avoid a expanded and public discovery process.

At this point, it’s easy to imagine that everyone over at 345 Park Avenue is thinking, the less discovery, the better.

Dolphins lose 2023 first-round pick, owner Stephen Ross suspended, for tampering

The Dolphins have lost their 2023 first-round draft pick, and owner Stephen Ross has been suspended, after the NFL found anti-tampering violations.

The Miami Dolphins have had more than their share of controversy in recent months. There’s former head coach Brian Flores’ claims against the team, in which Flores says that the Dolphins engaged in racist hiring practices, and that Flores was told by team owner Stephen Ross to “tank” games so that the team would have more favorable draft positions in future years.

There are also claims that the Dolphins reached out to quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Sean Payton in ways that violated the NFL’s rules against tampering.

After a six-month investigation led by former U.S. Attorney and SEC Chair Mary Jo White and, a team of lawyers from the Debevoise law firm, the NFL has leveled serious penalties against the Dolphins franchise.

  • The Dolphins will forfeit the club’s first-round selection in the 2023 NFL draft and third-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.
  • Mr. Ross is suspended through October 17, 2022. During this period, he may not be present at the Dolphins’ facility and may not represent the club at any team or NFL event. He may not attend any League meeting prior to the Annual Meeting in 2023, is removed from all League committees indefinitely, and fined $1.5 million.
  • Mr. Bruce Beal, Dolphins’ Vice Chairman/Limited Partner, may not attend any League meeting for the remainder of the 2022 season and is fined $500,000.

Regarding the alleged tampering, the investigators found tampering violations of “unprecedented scope and severity,” according to NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

  1. The Dolphins had impermissible communications with quarterback Tom Brady in 2019-20, while he was under contract to the New England Patriots. Those communications began as early as August 2019 and continued throughout the 2019 season and post-season. These numerous and detailed discussions were conducted by Mr. Beal, who in turn kept Mr. Ross and other Dolphins executives informed of his discussions with Mr. Brady.
  2. The Dolphins again had impermissible communications with both Mr. Brady and his agent during and after the 2021 season, while he was under contract to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those discussions began no later than early December 2021 and focused on Mr. Brady becoming a limited partner in the Dolphins and possibly serving as a football executive, although at times they also included the possibility of his playing for the Dolphins. Both Messrs. Ross and Beal were active participants in these discussions.
  3. In January 2022, the Dolphins had impermissible communications with Don Yee, the agent for New Orleans Saints’ head coach Sean Payton, about having Mr. Payton serve as Miami’s head coach. Miami did not seek consent from New Orleans to have these discussions, which occurred before Coach Payton announced his decision to retire as head coach of the Saints. Following that announcement, Miami requested permission to speak to Coach Payton for the first time, which New Orleans declined to grant.

“I know of no prior instance of a team violating the prohibition on tampering with both a head coach and star player, to the potential detriment of multiple other clubs, over a period of several years,” Goodell said via league statement. “Similarly, I know of no prior instance in which ownership was so directly involved in the violations.”

As to the tanking allegations, the investigators were unable to find specific proof.

  1. The Dolphins did not intentionally lose games during the 2019 season.  Nor did anyone at the club, including Mr. Ross, instruct Coach Flores to do so. No witness contended otherwise. The Dolphins competed hard to win every game, including at the end of the season when they beat Cincinnati and New England, despite worsening Miami’s position in the 2020 draft.
  2. On a number of occasions during the 2019 season, Mr. Ross expressed his belief that the Dolphins’ position in the upcoming 2020 draft should take priority over the team’s win-loss record. These comments were made most frequently to Team President and CEO Tom Garfinkel, but were also made to General Manager Chris Grier, Senior Vice President Brandon Shore and Coach Flores. These comments, which he took to be suggestions that he lose games, troubled Coach Flores and led him to express his concerns in writing to senior club executives, each of whom assured Coach Flores that everyone, including Mr. Ross, supported him in building a winning culture in Miami. After this, Mr. Ross no longer made any such comments to Coach Flores.
  3. One such comment is a claimed offer by Mr. Ross to pay Coach Flores $100,000 to lose games, as to which there are differing recollections about the wording, timing, and context. However phrased, such a comment was not intended or taken to be a serious offer, nor was the subject pursued in any respect by Mr. Ross or anyone else at the club.

“Every club is expected to make a good faith effort to win every game,” Goodell said. “The integrity of the game, and public confidence in professional football, demand no less. An owner or senior executive must understand the weight that his or her words carry, and the risk that a comment will be taken seriously and acted upon, even if that is not the intent or expectation.

“Even if made in jest and not intended to be taken seriously, comments suggesting that draft position is more important than winning can be misunderstood and carry with them an unnecessary potential risk to the integrity of the game. The comments made by Mr. Ross did not affect Coach Flores’ commitment to win and the Dolphins competed to win every game. Coach Flores is to be commended for not allowing any comment about the relative importance of draft position to affect his commitment to win throughout the season.”

Per league statement, “This discipline is informed by the Competition Committee’s clear guidance that more stringent discipline, including suspensions, should be imposed for tampering violations to deter future violations and to safeguard the integrity of the game.”

Ross, who probably shouldn’t be pressing his luck right now, released the following statement.