Analytics plays a huge part in today’s NFL game-planning as teams and coaches look for every little advantage they can find. Adaptation is critical to success and it’s how the best teams stay good year after year.
So, it should come as no surprise to learn Adam Gase and the Jets weren’t one of the most analytical offenses in the NFL in 2019 based on New York’s horrid offensive numbers. The team finished 31st or 32nd in multiple offensive categories, including points scored, yards, scoring percentage and points per possession. A lot of that can be blamed on the lack of talent on the roster, but Gase’s playcalling earned a lot of flack last season as well.
A recent analysis indicated Gase dipped into the analytics pool a little more than anticipated, but still painted a picture of a team that relied on a lot of the same play calls and rarely adjusted mid-game.
Rotoworld’s Hayden Winks broke down all 32 offensive play-callers in the NFL and ranked them according to 10 metrics to determine the best coaches from an analytics standpoint. Those metrics included categories like offensive pace, pass rate at various points in the game or areas on the field and different run rates. Six of the top-10 teams made the playoffs last season, including four of the top five.
Gase, unsurprisingly, finished 23rd out of 32 but showed more promise of being an average coach than he did proof of being a bad one. He ranked middle-of-the-pack in fourth-down aggressiveness (14th), shotgun run rate (14th), offensive pace (16th), play-action rate (17th) and pass rate on early downs (19th),
The dead-center offensive pace number was a bit shocking considering the Jets finished with the fewest yards per possession, points per possession and ranked 28th and 30th in time of and plays per possession, respectively. The Jets rarely had any sense of urgency, yet the numbers indicate they were among the NFL’s middle-best in pacing. However, the average numbers indicate Gase wasn’t averse to some of the top offensive strategies and could have a better season in 2020 with a better roster.
Gase flunked a few metrics, too.
The Jets finished 29th in pre-snap motion percentage, which is either an indictment on Sam Darnold’s or Gase’s ability to adjust to what he sees on the field. As with most things, it’s probably a combination of the two considering Gase is notorious for sticking to a gameplan without much deviation. Obviously, the lack of pre-snap motion rarely worked in 2019 for the Jets and, while it’s not a guaranteed strategy to win, the best teams in the league use a lot of pre-snap motion. The Super Bowl match-up between the Chiefs and the 49ers featured the fifth-best and best pre-snap motion teams. The most analytical-based team, the Ravens, finished third in this category.
Gase also rarely called plays featuring passes to the middle of the field (where he ranked 24th), runs to the outside (28th) or passes while trailing in a game (23rd). All of these make sense considering the Jets didn’t have any reliable big-bodied pass-catchers and were among the worst overall rushing teams in 2019. With a new offensive line, though, Gase will hopefully give Le’Veon Bell a bit more freedom to rush to the outside and break off bigger runs.
The lack of passes while trailing is also telling. When the Jets were down, they stayed down because Gase seemingly refused to shift his focus to mounting a comeback. It’s why the Jets ranked 24th in point differential and seven of their nine losses were by double-digits.
The one area Gase excelled at from an analytics perspective, though, is downfield passes. The Jets finished eighth in downfield pass rate – Gase’s highest mark. This fits in line with the strategy Joe Douglas employed this offseason in adding pass-catchers with speed like Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, as well as undrafted free agents George Campbell and Lawrence Cager. Gase and Darnold like the deep ball, and it should be a featured aspect of the offense in 2020 after how it was employed in 2019.
Gase and the Jets won’t suddenly change their offensive strategy because of a better offensive line and some new players, but they don’t need to be first in every metric to be successful. The Ravens, for instance, were first in fourth-down aggressiveness, shotgun run rate, play-action rate and passes to the middle of the field. A lot of that is based on the ability of Lamar Jackson. They finished dead last in pass rate on first down. The Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who finished second overall, finished first in first-down pass rate and top-10 in every other metric except passes while trailing (they rarely trailed) and passes to the middle of the field.
This isn’t an exact science or formula for winning, but the best teams on the list mixed and matched for their offense to build a winning strategy. The Jets were all over the place and only excelled at downfield passes.
Gase needs to take a serious look at his roster and his playcalling, figure out what needs changed and adapt it. Keeping the same plan from 2019 won’t work, and the analytics will prove it.