In a catch weight bout on the main card, Khamzat Chimaev and Kevin Holland meet Saturday at UFC 279 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC 279: Chimaev vs. Holland odds, with expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m. ET, the prelims starting on ESPNews/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Chimaev was expected to fight Nate Diaz in the main event, but he failed to make weight by an unbelievable 7.5 pounds, and the bout was scratched and rescheduled. He’ll now face Holland at catch weight.
Chimaev enters this fight with a 5-0 mark at the UFC level, including 4 stoppages. He had a unanimous-decision win over Gilbert Burns in his most recent appearance at UFC 273 in April. His previous 4 wins were 2 submission victories and a pair of KO/TKO wins.
Holland was matched out with Daniel Rodriguez previously, and it’s a bummer they won’t fight. They have had a lot of bad blood, and it would have been nice to see them hash it out in the octagon.
Holland has picked up victories in each of his last 2 fights, including a 2nd-round submission over Tim Means last time out in June. Eight of his last 11 bouts have finished inside the distance.
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UFC 279 Chimaev vs. Holland odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:14 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Chimaev -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Holland +370 (bet $100 to win $370)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -160 | Under +115)
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UFC 279 Chimaev vs. Holland picks and predictions
Records: Chimaev (11-0-0) | Holland (23-7-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
HOLLAND (+370) is a value play at this price. Chimaev has never lost, but it will be interesting to see how he bounces back after missing weight and getting dropped from the main event. He could come out with extra motivation, or he could be disinterested. I am banking on the latter.
Holland has a 6-inch reach advantage which he’ll use to keep the undefeated Swedish fighter at a distance. Chimaev is a whirling dervish, posting 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute. Holland doesn’t want any of that, but he will want to keep the fight upright. Chimaev is a tremendous wrestler who has a 2.69 submission average.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-160) is a little on the expensive side, but it’s a good play. If Holland is to survive, he will need to outpoint Chimaev, keeping the fight upright and off the mat. I think that the big upset comes here, and Holland will do enough to wow the judges, going well beyond the middle of Round 2.
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