Holiday Bowl: USC Trojans vs. Iowa Hawkeyes odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Holiday Bowl betting odds between the USC Trojans and the Iowa Hawkeyes, with betting picks, tips and bets.

The USC Trojans (8-4) will battle the Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3) Friday at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego at 8 p.m. (on FS1). We analyze the USC-Iowa odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

USC vs. Iowa: Three things you need to know

1. USC finished the regular season fifth in the nation in passing yards at 335 yards per game.

2. USC has failed to cover in seven straight games against a Big Ten opponent.

3. The point total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight non-home games for USC.

USC vs. Iowa: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 3:40 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Iowa 30, USC 27

Moneyline (ML)

Iowa (-134) is a small moneyline favorite over USC (+110). But considering how low the spread is here, you are better off taking the Hawkeyes at -2.5 while getting better odds. With this in mind, AVOID a moneyline wager.

Against the Spread (ATS)

IOWA (-2.5, -110) is the play, being less than a field-goal favorite. While USC does have one of the better passing attacks in all of college football, Iowa’s veteran defense should have no problem slowing the Trojans down. The Hawkeyes have allowed the fifth-fewest points in the country and excel stopping the pass. Iowa is just a bad matchup for USC.

Over/Under (O/U)

The O/U is 51.5 (Over -115, Under -106) in part due to Iowa’s outstanding defense. However, that total seems slightly low despite the Under hitting in six of the last eight games involving the Hawkeyes. Look for this to be a fairly low-scoring game, but for the OVER 51.5 (-115) to hit late in the fourth quarter.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @Marcus_Mosher and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

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Big Ten, big ’20s: Iowa football

Iowa football in the 2020s

Mark Hasty is one of the best people I have come to know on #CollegeFootballTwitter. It has been fascinating to be a sportswriter in the Twitter era, having conversations with fans and commentators across the country about the various sports I cover. I learn so much from the people I talk to, even though I never meet them in person. Mark rates high on the list, imparting wise, original, textured thoughts on matters from football to media to religion. He is one of a kind, and I treasure his insights.

Mark wrote a poignant, typically layered column at his current sportswriting home on Hayden Fry, the Iowa icon who died last week at age 90. Make sure you read it.

I asked Mark Hasty, an Iowa football observer of considerable esteem, to size up the program’s next decade. Here is what Mark had to say:

*

The biggest question for Iowa football next decade will be how it handles the transition we all know is coming. Kirk Ferentz is a very youthful 64 and under contract through 2026, when he will be 71. It’s unlikely but not impossible he’ll be extended, so all us Iowa fans assume we have seven more seasons of the Captain. The question is “what’s next?”

It’s generally assumed that Ferentz wants his son Brian, who is currently Iowa’s offensive coordinator, to replace him. Many Iowa fans are lukewarm to that prospect, since Iowa under Kirk Ferentz has never been known for offensive prowess. But I think Hawkeye fans should consider the possibility that the elder Ferentz has limited the tools in Iowa’s playbook.

I’ve done extensive research on coaching changes in the Big Ten and I’ve found that continuity of staff is one of the largest factors in maintaining long-term success. Iowa has been a fairly consistent seven- to nine-win football team over the last forty seasons. That is not dominance, but it’s a long history of success. “Evolution, not revolution” would be a good philosophy to follow.

Iowa fans who want more sweeping change should look one state to the west and realize that change won’t automatically turn Iowa in to a 10-win team that fights for the College Football Playoff.

— Mark Hasty

10 for 20: Iowa basketball

Iowa basketball in the 2020s

The Iowa Hawkeyes aren’t expected to be a giant in the college basketball world, but the program has shown under numerous coaches that it can reach a relatively lofty place in the sport — not the top tier, but in a very solid and respectable second tier below the heavyweights. No, Iowa shouldn’t be expected to be Michigan State or Ohio State, but it is hard to deny the sense that it should be a little more dependable than it has been under Fran McCaffery.

Iowa, to be very clear, is a hard-to-peg Big Ten program. It doesn’t have the access to big-city talent other league schools enjoy. It doesn’t have a towering reputation, but it does have an appreciably impressive basketball tradition developed by Ralph Miller, Lute Olson, and Tom Davis, three great college basketball coaches. If one is to ask about the big challenge facing Iowa basketball in the 2020s, you will probably get many different responses and many different standards. Some will say Iowa ought to be making more Sweet 16s — it has made none under McCaffery. Some will say Iowa needs to get higher NCAA seeds. The highest under Fran is No. 7. Those are good answers.

To me, however, the ultimate challenge facing Iowa basketball is this: Can it make the NCAA Tournament a high percentage of the time? That gets at the sense of underachievement in Iowa City more than anything else.

If you look at Iowa under Fran McCaffery, you will note that the Hawkeyes have missed the NCAAs five times in nine seasons. Sweet 16s are good, and more high seeds will likely translate to a Sweet 16, but before Iowa tackles those bigger goals, the Hawkeyes simply have to get to the Big Show more often. Wisconsin is a really good role model here. The Badgers wouldn’t always thrive under Bo Ryan in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but they were always there. One of those years, they were bound to do better, and they did occasionally climb higher.

Wisconsin fans won’t mind if Iowa continues to stumble… but if Iowa wants to reach a specific level of quality in the coming decade, it needs to give itself more chances in March.

Great Wisconsin moments from the 2010s: the 2010 Iowa game

Recalling the 2010 Wisconsin-Iowa game

As we look back on Wisconsin Badgers football in the decade which is about to end, we begin our collection of retrospectives with the first year of the decade, 2010. In this season, Wisconsin beat then-No. 1 Ohio State, a game we wrote about earlier this year at Badgers Wire. Because we have already referenced the best game of the 2010 season, let’s look at the second-best moment from that campaign, the 31-30 win in Kinnick Stadium against the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Keep in mind a few details about that 2010 Wisconsin season: First, the Badgers were part of a three-team tie in the standings at the end of the regular season. Second, this was the last year before the Big Ten Championship Game, which meant that tiebreaker procedures would determine which team went to the Rose, Sugar, or Capital One (now Citrus) Bowls. Wisconsin got the Granddaddy against TCU. Ohio State got the Sugar against Arkansas. Michigan State got the short end of the stick against Alabama in the Cap One.

Wisconsin needed this win in Iowa City to forge the three-way tie and head to Pasadena. Without this win, the Badgers would have had to deal with an angry Bama team in the Capital One Bowl. (That 2010 season was the only time since Nick Saban’s first season at Alabama in which the Crimson Tide lost three games.)

The other obvious point to make about this win in Iowa City is that Iowa has been noted for busting up great seasons of other Big Ten teams. The Hawkeyes ruined Minnesota’s season in 2019. They kept Ohio State out of the playoff in 2017. They prevented Michigan from winning its first Big Ten division title in 2016. They prevented Penn State from having an unbeaten regular season in 2008. The Kinnick graveyard was waiting to add Wisconsin to its collection.

The Badgers almost died, but scored a gutsy win on a fake punt deep in their own territory. Brad Nortman ran for 17 yards on fourth and four from the Wisconsin 26 in the fourth quarter, sparking the winning drive in a come-from-behind triumph.

Wisconsin players loved Bret Bielema for pulling the trigger on the play, as reported in The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa):

“That was awesome. That was one of the reasons I came here,” Wisconsin linebacker Blake Sorensen said. “That doesn’t surprise me at all. He’s not afraid. That’s a coach you love to play for.”

Bielema, typically, was pretty pleased with himself:

“We had seen that they had gone with two edge pressures and were covering down,” Bielema said. “We made the call once I saw them send out the punt return unit. Great execution, great faith.”

Iowa drove into Wisconsin territory in pursuit of a field goal, getting just inside the Badger 40, but the Hawkeyes used their final timeout and then threw a pass in bounds, short of the sticks. Wisconsin’s sure tackling and Kirk Ferentz’s poor game management caused the final seconds to expire, sealing UW’s huge win.

The decade in Wisconsin football ended with a Rose Bowl bid. It also began with one — not just because of the 2010 win over Ohio State, but the win in Kinnick Stadium as well.

Wisconsin is one part of a sexy Big Ten bowl season

Big Ten bowl thoughts

I’m not going to tell you that the full Big Ten Conference bowl season is great. Michigan State-Wake Forest? ZZZZZZ. Illinois-California? Nap time. Indiana-Tennessee? That’s nice. Penn State, thanks to Wisconsin making the Rose Bowl, gets pushed into the corner to play Memphis, getting the Group of Five assignment Power Five schools hate at bowl season.

However, five of the Big Ten’s nine bowl games are really sexy and very important. The Wisconsin Badgers are just one part of a five-part story. This year, the Big Ten’s better teams all drew high-profile opponents, which lends some snap, crackle and pop to the 2019 bowl season. One could very easily make the argument that in a generally lackluster lineup of 39 bowl games (UCF-Marshall! Appalachian State-UAB! Pittsburgh-Eastern Michigan!), the Big Ten has the best and most interesting matchups, the games a lot of casual sports fans will watch at bowl season.

Oregon. Clemson. Alabama. Auburn. USC. Those five schools have all played for national championships this century. More specifically, they have all played for national titles in the past 15 years. Four of the five (USC being the exception) played for the national title THIS DECADE. Three of those four schools (Oregon being the exception) won a national title this decade.

These are the five opponents for Big Ten teams in the upper-tier bowl games.

Oregon is Wisconsin’s opponent in Pasadena. Clemson faces Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl playoff semifinal. Alabama returns to the Citrus Bowl — where it began this decade against Michigan State — to play the other Michigan school, Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines. Auburn gets P.J. Fleck and Minnesota in the Outback Bowl.

A hilarious aspect of the Outback Bowl:

USC is Iowa’s opponent in the Holiday Bowl. A trip to San Diego and a marquee opponent give Hawkeye fans a good reward for their team’s season. We can power-rank these games later on (you can bet that we will), but for now, simply realize that the five best Big Ten bowl games are all showcase events. None of the matchups are dull. Bama might blow out Michigan, but the matchup isn’t a snoozer. Harbaugh versus Saban demands attention… at least the first one and a half quarters.

The Big Ten isn’t going low-profile this bowl season. This is an attractive, dressed-up, high-end football fashion show to close out the 2010s and ring in the new year… and the new decade.

College Football Playoff: Instant Reaction to New Rankings

how in the world can you justify Penn State being eight spots higher?

The answer is that you can’t.

The College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday night with a couple of shocks but nothing major in terms of the top-four or where Notre Dame will likely end up because of where they wind up in these latest rankings.

If you haven’t seen the rankings yet, here they are:

Three fast thoughts on them:

Great news for the Big XII:

Wisconsin-Minnesota preview: game management plays a key role

Some thoughts on how PJ Fleck of the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Paul Chryst of the Wisconsin Badgers must handle Saturday’s game.

In November, the Minnesota Golden Gophers – who are preparing to face the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday — have played two very big games: one against the Penn State Nittany Lions, the other against the Iowa Hawkeyes. Both games were hugely affected by game-management decisions. In one, Minnesota’s opponent made the game-management mistakes. In the other, P.J. Fleck made the game-management mistakes. The Gophers beat Penn State and lost to Iowa.

As Minnesota prepares to face Wisconsin in a battle for the Big Ten West Division championship, it is worth noting the large role game management has played in Minnesota’s month of November. If Saturday’s showdown is close in the final minutes, both Fleck and Paul Chryst will need to make sound and responsible chess moves. Fleck in particular has to bounce back from a brutal showing against Iowa two weeks ago.

Here was the situation: Minnesota was trailing Iowa 23-13 late in the game and had first and goal near the Iowa goal line. The play clock, however, was running down, and Fleck called one of his remaining timeouts. On third or fourth down near the goal line, one can make the argument that saving five yards is crucial in the attempt to score the touchdown, thereby necessitating the use of a timeout. That is not an ideal move to make, but it is reasonable and defensible. Calling that same timeout on first or second down is not. There are too many chances to score from the 6- or 7-yard line to justify using a timeout, especially when it is clear that a team will need to get the ball back late in the game (barring the recovery of an onside kick).

Fleck’s use of a timeout – Minnesota did score a touchdown and then failed on the conversion after the touchdown to remain down by four points, 23-19 – cost the Gophers 45 seconds they otherwise would have been able to retain on Iowa’s subsequent possession. Minnesota got the ball back after an Iowa punt, but with 45 fewer seconds than it otherwise would have had. The Gophers lost, 23-19, in part because Fleck did not properly value a timeout.

A few weeks earlier, Fleck’s opponent made the game-management blunders, influencing the shape of the battle in the second half. Penn State’s James Franklin went for two in the third quarter of a game his team trailed, 24-19. There were many plot twists left in this game, but Franklin chased a point well before the fourth quarter. When Penn State failed and Minnesota then scored a touchdown for a 31-19 lead, that point loomed large. Minnesota led by 12, not 11, which meant that when PSU was down 12, a field goal did absolutely nothing for the Nittany Lions.

Sure enough, Penn State got into a red-zone situation where – had it trailed by 11 points – a field goal would have trimmed its deficit to eight, a one-score game. Down 12, Penn State had to go for it. The Nittany Lions failed. Penn State did scramble back to score a touchdown and create a 31-26 game. PSU drove deep into Minnesota territory in the final minute, but got intercepted on a dangerous, risky throw. Had Franklin not chased the point at 24-19 in the third quarter – which meant he would have kicked a field goal later – Penn State might have had 30 points, and would have had at least 29, in that final minute. There would not have been a need to make dangerous throws in range for a winning field goal. Having to score a touchdown, though, necessitated a more aggressive approach. It blew up in Franklin’s face.

Game management – not just making individual decisions in certain moments, but understanding how decisions need to be stacked together in a big-picture view of how a team gains a path to victory – helped Minnesota beat Penn State. Game management helped Minnesota lose to Iowa. When P.J. Fleck and Paul Chryst match wits on Saturday, they will both need to be on their game… in the realm of game management.

Iowa at Nebraska odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Iowa Hawkeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers sports betting odds and lines, with college football betting picks and best bets.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (8-3, 5-3 Big Ten West) do battle with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (5-6, 3-5) Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET in Lincoln, Neb. We analyze the Iowa-Nebraska odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Iowa at Nebraska: Three things you need to know

1. The Cornhuskers need a victory or they’re going to be home for the holidays rather than bowling.

2. Iowa ranks 13th in total yards allowed (306.5), and it’s 19th in the nation against the pass (191.3), 22nd in rushing yards allowed (115.2) and fifth in points allowed (12.2 PPG).

3. After starting out 2-5 against the spread, Iowa has posted a 3-1 ATS mark across the past four. The Under is 8-1-1 across the past 10 after an Over result in the opener vs. Miami (Ohio).


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Iowa at Nebraska: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:15 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Iowa 26, Nebraska 18

Moneyline (ML)

Iowa (-228) should be able to pull off its ninth victory of the season while securing a spot in an upper-tier bowl game. Nebraska (+185) handled a defensively-challenged Maryland side last week to give itself a chance at a bowl trip, but Iowa is a great defensive club which will give the ‘Huskers fits. Nebraska has just one victory against winning teams this season, and it’s 0-5 ATS in such situations.

New to sports betting? Every $1 wagered for Iowa to win outright will return a profit of $4.40.

Against the Spread (ATS)

IOWA (-5.5, -115) is a near-elite side, especially defensively, and Nebraska (+5.5, -106) won’t roll over the Hawkeyes like they did last weekend against the Terrapins. Iowa’s offense isn’t terrible, either, as QB Nate Stanley can make the throws to be a difference-maker.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. The projection of 44.5 is a strong total, and Iowa’s defense has me leaning to the Under. However, the over is 9-3 in Iowa’s past 12 road games, and 14-6-1 in Nebraska’s past 21 Big Ten affairs. The Over is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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Big Ten Quick Thoughts, Takes On Every Game: Week 13. Ohio State Wins Big Ten East

Quick thoughts and takes on every Week 13 Big Ten game. @PeteFiutak Michigan State 27, Rutgers 0 It was only a win over Rutgers, but Michigan State really, really, really, really needed that. It wasn’t perfect, the running game was stuffed a bit too …

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Quick thoughts and takes on every Week 13 Big Ten game.


@PeteFiutak

Michigan State 27, Rutgers 0

It was only a win over Rutgers, but Michigan State really, really, really, really needed that. It wasn’t perfect, the running game was stuffed a bit too much and the offense stalled a bit, but Cody White went off for 11 catches for 136 yards and three scores, and it was a shutout over a team that was supposed to be shutout. The program can exhale for a moment – it hit the putt.

 

Rutgers just doesn’t have the offensive talent. Johnny Langan completed 8-of-20 passes for 57 yards with a pick, led the team with 49 rushing yards, and Isaiah Pacheco was held to 36 yards. It didn’t help that the Scarlet Knights were playing a team that cared.

The Spartans owned this game by more than the final score. They didn’t allow a third down conversion and held the ball for almost 38 minutes. There wasn’t any drama whatsoever.

Michigan State did what it needed to do, and now it closes out with Maryland for a shot at a sixth win and bowl eligibility. Rutgers’ season will come to a brutal but merciful end at Penn State.

Iowa 19, Illinois 10

Iowa played a typical Iowa game. It battled hard, played good run defense, and did enough to keep things moving through the air. It wasn’t easy, and it was a grind to do anything on the ground, but it was the eighth win of the season with just Nebraska to go. A shot at a ten-win campaign is still there.

The Hawkeyes couldn’t get any push up front – the Illinois D line did a nice job. Iowa ended up with just 79 rushing yards, and Nate Stanley wasn’t all that sharp, but he connected on a few bit pass plays with Ihmir Smith-Marsette catching four passes for 121 yards.

Illinois played relatively well despite only scoring ten points. The running backs didn’t get the ball enough – QB Brandon Peters led the team with 76 rushing yards – but the O averaged close to five yards per carry. The passing game didn’t cluck – Peters threw two picks – but it was an okay performance despite the final score.

It was a good fight, and now Illinois gets to go for a seventh win when it finishes up against Northwestern. If a 19-10 loss on the road to Iowa was okay, a loss of any sort to this Wildcat team would be totally unacceptable.

NEXT: Ohio State 28, Penn State 17

Illinois-Iowa odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s Illinois at Iowas college football matchup, with college football betting odds, picks and best bets

The Illinois Fighting Illini (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten West) and Iowa Hawkeyes (7-3, 4-3 West) lock horns at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City at noon ET on Saturday.

We analyze the Illinois-Iowa odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Illinois at Iowa: Three things you need to know

1. Illinois has won four in a row, moving to 6-4 to secure bowl eligibility for the first time since 2014 when they appeared in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

2. The Illini have won six games despite the fact they rank 112th in the FBS in total yards (333.7) and 108th in passing yards (183.4).

3. Iowa QB Nate Stanley has passed for 2,331 yards, 14 passing touchdowns and five interceptions with just one rushing score.


Get some action on this game or others by placing a bet at BetMGM!


Illinois at Iowa: Odds, betting lines and picks

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Prediction

Iowa 21, Illinois 18

Moneyline (ML)

Iowa (-834) is favored by more than two touchdowns, and the Hawkeyes should be able to get it done at home. However, the Illini have surprised and defied the odds, winning in this spot before. I expect the Hawkeyes to win, but it will be a one-possession game.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Iowa to win would return a profit of $1.20.

Against the Spread (ATS)

ILLINOIS (+14.5, -106) continues to get no respect from Vegas. Despite their winning ways lately, the Illini have been a double-digit underdog in six of their past seven outings, winning three games outright while going 5-1 ATS. Illinois is 5-0 ATS in the past five games overall, too, so why bet against the Illini now?

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER (46.5, -110) is the dominant trend for both sides lately. The under is 4-1 in the past five on the road for Illinois, while going 4-0-1 in Iowa’s past five at Kinnick. The under is also 6-1 in Iowa’s past seven league games and 5-1 in the past six against teams with a winning overall mark.

Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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