The Cleveland Indians (47-43) and Houston Astros (56-38) play the opener of a three-game set Monday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Indians vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP J.C. Mejia is the projected starting pitcher for the Indians. He is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with 8.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 over 30 1/3 IP across seven starts and three relief appearances.
Mejia has been trounced in July for 12 runs on 9 hits and 4 walks in just 6 2/3 innings across two starts, both losses. One of those outings came July 1 against the Astros where he surrendered 6 ER through 4 IP. His ERA has ballooned from 4.94 to 7.42 just since June 24.
RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 across 115 1/3 IP in 19 starts.
Greinke lost last time out July 10 against the New York Yankees, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits and a walk across 4 innings. He allowed just 3 runs, 5 hits and a walk with 8 strikeouts across 7 2/3 innings in a no-decision July 4 at Cleveland in his only other start this month.
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Indians at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Sunday at 7:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Indians +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Astros -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Indians +1.5 (-110) | Astros -1.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Astros 8, Indians 2
Money line (ML)
The Astros (-225) will cost you more than two times your potential return in Monday’s series opener, and that’s not a good bet. Houston is actually 1-4 in its past five as a favorite of -200 or higher.
AVOID, and look to the run line instead.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The ASTROS -1.5 (-110) haven’t done a great job as huge favorites lately, but they should be able to get to Mejia early and often. Houston swept a four-game set at Cleveland July 1-4, including a start by Greinke. When Mejia faced the Astros earlier this month he was blasted in a 7-2 loss.
Over/Under (O/U)
The OVER 9 (-105) is the lean, mostly due to Mejia’s ineffectiveness lately. He has been very giving and Houston should pile up the offense against him.
The Over is also 5-0 in the last five series openers for the Indians, and 7-2 in the last nine series openers for the ‘Stros.
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