The Miami Hurricanes (6-5) visit the Duke Blue Devils (4-7) for a 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday ACC contest at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham. We analyze the Miami-Duke odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Miami at Duke: Three things you need to know
1. Duke won last year’s meeting in Miami despite being outgained, 411 yards to 290. The Blue Devils are 5-9 against the spread since. The Hurricanes are 13-2 in their all-time series against Duke.
2. The Blue Devils have struggled in late-season home games the last few years. They’re 1-7 ATS in such contests. The stretch includes losses earlier this month against Notre Dame and Syracuse. The Blue Devils scored a combined 13 points over those home losses (Nov. 9, Nov. 16). Offensively, Duke has averaged 4.9 yards per play on the road but just 4.3 YPP at Wallace Wade.
3. The Hurricanes defense has allowed just 274 YPG over their last three efforts away from home. For the season, Miami ranks 17th in the nation in yards per play, with just 4.8 allowed.
BetMGM BLACK FRIDAY SPECIAL
BET $1, WIN $250 in free bets if ANY NFL team scores a touchdown Sunday, Dec. 1, 2019. Bet now and win!
Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions.
Miami at Duke: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last Friday at 6 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Miami 31, Duke 17
Moneyline (ML)
We’ll pass on the Miami (-358) line. That figure implies a 79% win expectation, and that’s on the overly aggressive side. A -315 line would have some value baked in, but bigger moneylines hold more juice and that makes such a price move unlikely.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Miami returns a profit of $2.79.
Against the Spread (ATS)
A Miami offense with a near-average performance in third-down conversions is a much better product. The ‘Canes are languishing with a 27% success rate (129th of 130 FBS teams). Two games back against Louisville, Miami went 5-for-10 on the penultimate down; it scored 52 points. With that potential in mind, the ‘Canes are coming off a disappointing loss to Florida International, one which saw Miami get undone by turnovers (-3) and hidden yards.
Identifying false recency bias — over-inflating or under-inflating a line — is a big key in finding value in football betting. Making a play on MIAMI (-9.5, -106).
Over/Under (O/U)
The O/U is an expensive proposition on the low side (Under 47.5, -139). The game flow here is a clouded picture. Duke’s offense has gone through stretches where it can’t help but score 40 and others when it can’t get into double digits. PASS.
Get some action on this game or others, place a bet with BetMGM today. And for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1623]