In a 12-round championship bout for the IBF, WBA, WBC and WBO World Super Middleweight belts, Canelo Alvarez and Gennadiy Golovkin meet Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Alvarez vs. Golovkin odds, with expert boxing picks and predictions.
The Pay-Per-View broadcast can be viewed on HBO Boxing, with the broadcast starting at 8 p.m. ET. The championship bout is expected to begin approximately at 10:30 p.m.
Canelo is looking to rebound and get his swagger back, after he was defeated by unanimous decision against Dmitrii Bivol at this very same venue in early May. In that bout, he lost the WBA Super World Light Heavyweight bout, so he returns to the middleweight division.
This will be the 3rd fight of the trilogy. These fighters met at T-Mobile Arena in mid-September 2017, and fought to a split-decision draw. That set up a 2nd fight at the same venue, and Canelo scratched out a majority decision win, with 2 judges scoring the fight 115-113, and one calling it 114-114.
Golovkin, a.k.a. Triple G, dropped Ryota Murata at Super Arena Saitama last time out in early April, winning in the ninth round via KO/TKO. He also has a KO win over Steve Rolls, and a pair of decision victories over Sergiy Derevyanchenko and Kamil Szeremeta in his 4 fights since losing to Canelo in Vegas in Sept. 2018.
Canelo vs. Golovkin odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Canelo -550 (bet $550 to win $100) | Golovkin +330 (bet $100 to win $330)
- Over/Under: 10.5 rounds (Over -200 | Under +140)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -175 | No +115)
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Canelo vs. Golovkin picks and predictions
Records: Canelo (57-2-2, 39 KOs) | Golovkin (42-1-1, 37 KOs)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
The difference here is likely to be age. Canelo (-550) is still a rather spry 32, although he has a lot of mileage on his tires with 61 professional bouts.
Golovkin (+330) is now 40 years old for this trilogy fight, and while he still has been performing at a rather high level, for whatever reason, when it comes to fights against Canelo, either the general public, or boxing world seem to not be in Triple G’s corner.
You can’t take Canelo laying 5 1/2 times your potential return, as there is just no money there. Taking a flyer on Golovkin to spring the upset is super tempting, but this isn’t 2017 or 2018. I think the window for Triple G surprises has been slammed shut by Father Time.
The safe play is CANELO TO WIN BY DECISION (-111) with a minimal slap on the wrist in terms of juice.
Over/Under (O/U)
The books are fully expecting this baby to go the distance, and for PPV buyers to at least get their money’s worth. Over 10.5 Rounds (-200) is a little too pricey for my liking, but not declaring a winner, and simply playing YES (-175): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a very strong play.
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