Tag: Fantasy Football

Scratching the sports-betting itch with 2020 fantasy football best-ball drafts

Missing fantasy football and gambling? Combine them with a best-ball draft. Place the bet on yourself!

While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread across America and the globe, almost all of our preferred pastimes have been put on hold, at least when it comes to team sports. There are plans in place for all four major American team sports to resume fairly soon, although much uncertainty remains.

During this time, fantasy sports and betting enthusiasts are either looking to satisfy their hunger by playing daily fantasy golf or even dipping into the NASCAR pond, but we still can get our kicks by drafting season-long fantasy football teams in the form of best-ball competitions.

How it works

No roster adjustments are needed after the team is assembled, and gamers can draft either the old-fashioned way or with a slow-draft format that notifies them when it’s their turn to pick within an allotted time (usually around four hours).

Many services offer these contests, and I recently drafted my first 2020 best-ball roster. I’ve done hundreds of these drafts throughout the years, but the cloudy outlook of whether we even will have an NFL season had me pumping the brakes this offseason. Rather than going all in, my current intentions are to draft a team or two per week until we have rock-solid confirmation the NFL season will go on as scheduled.

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Benefits of drafting a best-ball team include practice in dozens of ways, scratching that sports itch, experiencing a number of draft placements, trying out new strategies, and — everyone’s favorite — winning money. There are so many advantages to practicing, and I’m a firm believer that gamers of all skill levels need to stay fresh. It’s rewarding to track your teams based on when you drafted them, which is why I name all of my teams by date. It is easy to then look back at how one’s drafting skills evolved over the offseason.

Usually, I’ve drafted dozens of teams by now, so this year’s test result won’t have quite as long of a runway for evaluation purposes. Even still, it is, in a sense, gambling on your own abilities to draft the winning roster. For anyone missing fantasy football and betting, combine them with a best-ball draft. Essentially, it is like placing the bet on yourself! Sure, it’s not the nearly instant gratification of DFS or actual betting, but there’s a risk-reward component that comes with a tangible prize for being right.

Unlike traditional leagues with inseason roster adjustments, gamers in best-ball setups are putting all of their eggs in one’s ability to draft. And make no mistake about it, drafting is vastly different from the spring to the middle of the summer and into the waning weeks before the season kicks off.

Each decision is a mini gamble

In the Tuesday, July 14, draft, I picked seventh in a 12-team, PPR format that requires 1-2-3-1 for skill positions, plus a flex, and no kicker. Each team drafts at least one defense. Being that it is best-ball, it’s wise to take two defensive units, but since they don’t get injured like an individual player, I’m not keen on taking more than two. Quarterback and tight end, however, are positions in which I enter the draft with three-deep in mind at each position. It doesn’t take much to be left without a QB or TE if bye weeks and injuries/demotions conspire against your draft plans. But there’s another gamble to be had in skimping on depth to build elsewhere.

Running backs and receivers, of course, require owners to draft for depth. And, since there isn’t any management beyond the selection of these players, it’s even more important to blend upside with proven playmakers than in conventional leagues.

Since running back is especially thin this year, I made sure to grab one elite player at No. 7 (Derrick Henry) and then entered Round 2 with an open mind. This live draft had two absent owners, so autopicks were in play, and the AI did a good job of balancing both teams. I’m actually a little ticked that it sniped me on a few players. Anyway, you have to roll with the punches, just like in a regular draft. I then found myself looking at either Austin Ekeler or several other running backs with major questions (Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Leonard Fournette, Clyde Edwards-Helaire), so I pivoted to a position I almost never consider early and chose Travis Kelce.

In Round 3, my Henry-Kelce combination allowed for some flexibility. Since WR is so deep, I went back to entertaining the idea of a running back here. I tabbed Gurley or Edwards-Helaire. Of course, both went with two of the three picks before me. It then left me thinking it was time to snag the best receiver available, whom I valued as being Mike Evans, so that’s the route I chose. In the fourth round, running back was now a must, right? Usually, I’d have taken one, but now this team was unconventional for me, and I wanted to keep that ball rolling, so I turned to another receiver in Cooper Kupp.

Knowing that I was now thin at the thinnest position possible, my focus went to building running back depth over the next four rounds. Raheem Mostert‘s contract squabble doesn’t scare me, mainly because he lacks serious leverage. On to my roster he went in Round 5. The sixth round presented options to consider for positional versatility, which led to a “go big” mentality with the selection of Kyler Murray. He has a serious weapons cache and a coach who wants to prove his genius. Back to running back: I added James White and Ronald Jones in Rounds 7 and 8, respectively. Not great, but intriguing blends of reliability and potential.

The structure of the team after eight of the 20 rounds was 1 QB, 4 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE … back to looking at receiver. I snagged Emmanuel Sanders and Hunter Renfrow (a personal sleeper fave) in the next two rounds before taking a chance on Daniel Jones as my backup. Drew Brees was my hope here, if he had not gone four picks prior. The Murray-Jones combo gives me upside galore but questionable stability from a weekly perspective, so, in hindsight, maybe taking a passer one round earlier and waiting on Renfrow was the wiser decision. Those are examples of where gambling on my ability to draft the best players for the situation will either pay off or break my chances of winning the league.

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To round out the rest of the draft, the aforementioned blending of safety and high-reward upside picks was the focus. Adding guys like QB Drew Lock, TE Jace Sternberger, WR Josh Reynolds and RB Reggie Bonnafon isn’t for everyone, but in the event my prognostication is right on even one of them panning out, I can live with it. Lock has top-10 potential. Sternberger is this year’s Mark Andrews in my eyes. Reynolds plays in an offense that may be forced to chuck it nearly 700 times, and Bonnafon is the primary backup to Christian McCaffrey and his league-high workload over the last two years. In all likelihood, Bonnafon never cracks my starting lineup in this format. But if CMC gets hurt, I have a possible RB2 as my sixth back coming out of the draft.

The same conceptual argument could be applied to choosing rookie RB Darrynton Evans as a handcuff to Henry in Tennessee. Instead, categorize it as a mixture of safety and upside. There’s risk, since he’s a rookie during a pandemic-shortened offseason and comes from a small school, but it’s also the easiest position to learn and in an offense dedicated to pounding the ball.

Adding veterans Kenny Stills and Kyle Rudolph to round out depth isn’t sexy. Consider their situations. Houston is counting on a mixture of underwhelming and injury-prone veterans to learn the offense on the fly and build chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Stills has both of those elements already down. And it’s tough to see the NFL disciplining him for being arrested while protesting a social cause. Rudolph gets a boost after the offensive coordinator change and loss of Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Sure, second-year tight end Irv Smith will cut into his time here and there, but in best-ball, behind Kelce, I’m only hoping for the occasional two-TD outburst or unlikely 10-catch game from a 16th-round choice.

I’ll be back next week to examine another draft and see which gambles will likely pay off once the real thing is back on the field. There’s definitely a correlation to sports betting, albeit less than in DFS, due to the timeliness of the pay-off. I’m confident anyone who hasn’t tried best-ball will enjoy it.

Get in on the action and draft your own! My preferred league platforms for these drafts are RTSports.com and SportsHub’s “Best-Ball 10s” services. Neither company sponsored this article … I just like what they do in the space. Check ’em out, or look around the web to find competitors.

The argument for drafting Saquon Barkley over Christian McCaffrey

Is Christian McCaffrey a must-draft with the No. 1 pick? Saquon Barkley offers an alternative.

Is Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey really a must-draft with the No. 1 pick? New York Giants star runner Saquon Barkley offers an alternative.

There are a few reasons to consider taking Barkley over the consensus No. 1 pick in 2020 fantasy football drafts. While the margin between these two is so narrow that a coin flip is a reasonable way to decide, Barkley is my preference for a number of reasons. The most important factor is getting ahead of a potential crippling injury, rather than being forced to react to one.

The system

We know new Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett has proven his system can create a powerhouse running game AND feed backs through the air. Look no farther back in time than the 2018 season to find Dallas Cowboys bell cow Ezekiel Elliott corralling 77 receptions. McCaffrey has topped 100 each of the past two seasons, which largely fuels his value. No one is likely to argue Barkley is a better receiver, but it’s not like the gap is so wide in CMC’s favor.

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Joe Brady is the new playcaller for the Panthers, but he hasn’t called a since down in the NFL, and his collegiate system was lethal, but only for one season. The runway of data with which to work is basically as long as the plane itself. Brady, 30, learned under Sean Payton for a couple of years in New Orleans as an assistant. He now has to deploy an NFL-ready offense during a pandemic. Color me skeptical.

McCaffrey, for his part, must put that Stanford education to good use and learn a new system — as does Barkley — but the major difference is Carolina’s hasn’t been tried and proven in the NFL yet. It’s safe to give Barkley the upper hand in this scenario thanks to Garrett’s experience as a coach. Plus, we have no way of knowing how Brady will call plays during the heat of the moment. It’s one thing to be great at designing concepts … a totally different skill set is required for understanding when to utilize them.

Utilization

Since involvement is directly tied to the system itself, consider these first two segments as going hand in hand.

At LSU, Brady’s calls led to the Tigers’ top back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, catching 55 passes in 2019. The system does involve the back in the aerial game, and it’s going to be emphasized in Carolina with an elite receiver in McCaffrey catching passes from the overly cautious Teddy Bridgewater.

As mentioned, Elliott caught 77 balls in ’18 before his 54-catch showing in 2019. Under Garrett, Dallas saw DeMarco Murray catch 53 and 57 passes in 2013 and ’14, respectively. His successor, a broken down Darren McFadden, snagged 40 of his own in 2015. Dating back to Garrett’s days as the offensive coordinator in Dallas, his lead backs averaged more than 40 receptions a year. None of those exceptions were Barkley. Garrett enjoys the passing game, but he sets it up with the run.

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Even though Garrett wasn’t the weekly playcaller in every season as the leader of the Cowboys, he put his stamp on the game plans and dictated some degree of the offensive direction. In seven of Garrett’s 10 full seasons as Dallas’ head coach, his primary running back topped 1,000 yards. The exceptions were in years in which said ball carrier didn’t play more than 13 games but was on pace.

No running back has touched the ball as much as McCaffrey in the last two years. Zeke checks in as a close second. CMC’s 2018 breakout year resulted in 219 carries and 107 receptions, for a grand total of 326 utilizations. Last year, he added nine receptions to the previous career high and toted the rock a hearty 287 times, or 403 combined handles. Any time we get into that 400 range for touches, the following season typically ends in disaster from a fantasy perspective. Sure, we’ve witnessed exceptions. Also, did he max out? Can anyone realistically expect McCaffrey will see a bigger workload, even if he’s healthy and productive? That’s not to say he couldn’t enjoy another elite season with a similar dosage, but it’s more probable than not we witnessed his career year.

Barkley, however, has one fewer year of being in the league, and he missed action in 2019 with an ankle sprain. This ties us into the next segment: Durability.

Over-utilization?

Did the 2019 going-nowhere Panthers’ coaching staff set up McCaffrey for a downturn in 2020 by using him too much? Maybe. He’s a sturdily built runner who doesn’t take too many huge shots and is quick to dip out of harm’s way, when possible. Unfortunately, soft-tissue injuries don’t require physical contact. His style of play doesn’t suggest his 403 touches are like that of past workhorses we’ve see (think someone like Larry Johnson who was hammered almost every time he touched the ball). Buuuuuuuut … Four. Hundred. Three. Touches. That’s so hard to ignore in good conscience.

History is overwhelmingly working against McCaffrey. Here’s a look at the follow-up years to recent seasons in which a running back shouldered massive workloads. (Ricky Williams was omitted due to his 2004 retirement. Le’Veon Bell sat out the year following his 2017 season with 406 touches. Tiki Barber was excluded for already being age 30 in 2005. All other qualifying players since 1993 were included.)

  • Two of 16 improved fantasy points per game
  • Average per-game regression of 32.9 percent in fantasy production on a per-game basis
  • 10 of 16 fumbled more frequently
  • 10 of 15 qualified scored TDs less frequently
  • 13 of 16 saw average yards per touch decrease

A handful of backs entered their 400-touch season coming off of a previous campaign with such a workload. There’s no modern comparable since LaDainian Tomlinson’s 2002-03 examples. The NFL has changed in a well-documented manner when it comes to sharing backfield chores and not driving a single running back into the ground as often. Of the five backs with consecutive 400-touch efforts, Curtis Martin was the only one to improve the year after the most recent 400-handle season, and the average regression was 25.4 percent of per-game fantasy football points generated.

Say we apply that 33 percent composite regression to McCaffrey from last year’s numbers … we’re still looking at the No. 3 back. But what doesn’t it look like if he misses half of the year or more? His bye week isn’t until Week 13, which could leave him worn down during a crucial phase of the season, and what happens if you’re fighting for the final playoff spot and your best guy is out the week before the postseason begins? He may be fresh for the playoffs, provided you get that opportunity. Barkley’s bye is Week 11 — yet another minuscule advantage.

After we’ve seen McCaffrey hold up nicely for three years vs. Barkley miss time in only his second campaign, it’s understandable to give the Panthers star a break on the excessive touches when compared to others after hitting that dreaded 400 mark. Conversely, Saquon may never miss another game due to injury, so any objective view of this could consider it a wash. Gamers specifically looking for an area of separation between the two can point to less wear on Barkley’s tires, but it’s a picky take any which way one slices it. That is, unless, you’re banking on the ugly history of extensive workload repeating itself once again. In that case, it’s another, albeit abstract, feather in Saquon’s helmet.

Supporting cast

The ultimate team sport is quite obviously on display when it comes to the running back position. Factors like quarterback competency, offensive line prowess, receiving talent and depth, defensive reliability … all key elements in factoring a player’s chances of shining in fantasy. Running backs are so dependent upon whether their line can open holes, if the passing game can keep defenders out of the box, and just how many opportunities are granted in relation to the scoreboard.

Typically, teams will abandon the ground game if the offense is in a serious deficit. However, that factor isn’t as much of a concern for backs like Barkley and McCaffrey as pass-catching phenoms. Fantasy footballers don’t career if their points come in garbage time, and 83 of McCaffrey’s 116 grabs last year were when playing from behind. He was almost evenly productive rushing when playing with a lead as from in a hole.

Barkley, unsurprisingly, also caught more passes while his team was behind on the scoreboard during his first two pro seasons. He wasn’t as productive rushing when behind last year; however, the Penn State star was just fine in 2018 when trailing.

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Two-way backs are mostly immune to the scoreboard. They are not inoculated against terrible quarterback play or inept defenses. The Giants deserve the check mark for being a better team defense than Carolina, a Panthers team that will return only two defensive starters from 2019, most notably losing linebacker Luke Kuechly to retirement. That said, the Giants aren’t the ’85 Chicago Bears, so how much worse will Carolina’s unit be? Another marginal separation between the two.

Between these two, quarterback play is mostly a moot point, but in different ways. Daniel Jones starts from the onset in Year 2, and the 2019 rookie season prepared him well. Injuries are a slight worry, but the same can be said for Bridgewater in Carolina. Jones is more likely to “grip it and rip it,” whereas Bridgewater’s game is built on methodical, safe decision-making. The latter favors the offense staying on the field longer. Jones has far more upside to take his offense to a whole different level and keep extra defenders out of Barkley’s grill.

Offensive line play skews toward Barkley’s side, but Carolina made strides in the offseason, trading for veteran left tackle Russell Okung and bolstering the depth incrementally. New York’s line added first-round right tackle Andrew Thomas, and picks in Rounds 3 and 5 were spent on depth. Blocking tight end Levine Toilolo’s addition is worth noting, too. The left side of this group is where the bread is buttered

Verdict

It mostly comes down to what you’re worried about … if you feel McCaffrey is the safer pick and have no significant concerns about his durability, feel free to go that route. It is probably going to pay off with a top-three result.

For my money, at a pick and for a position where every minor advantage is amplified, Barkley is more explosive and comes with less to worry about going wrong. His ankle sprain last year cost him only three games, when the original window suggested nearly two months, and he shouldn’t be labeled injury-prone after one significant incident. He also survived a quarterback change that led to a rookie starting, getting hurt, then returning. Staying ahead of the injury curve is where gamers want to be, and history suggests we’re looking at a possible letdown from CMC. In all likelihood, he has nowhere else to go but down.

This isn’t necessarily a wholehearted endorsement of choosing Barkley over McCaffrey as much as advocating fantasy football owners to think in a less reactive fashion. There is another option, and it’s entirely possible that path will lead to greater fantasy riches.

Titans’ Derrick Henry will face tough slate of run defenses to start 2020

Derrick Henry’s schedule gets easier as the season progresses.

If Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is going to repeat as the NFL’s rushing leader in 2020 — or at least come close to it — he’s going to have to navigate a tough slate of run defenses from the jump.

The Titans will face the Denver Broncos on the road in Week 1,  the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 2, the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in Week 3 and the Minnesota Vikings at home in Week 4.

According to Pro Football Focus’ Ian Hartitz, that slate is among the toughest in the NFL for running backs in the first four weeks of the 2020 season.

Tennessee Titans (Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers): Derrick Henry has always made the most of his offensive line’s limitations with gaudy YAC stats. He’ll need to be on his A-game aside from his Week 2 blowup spot.

The only break in those four games is with the Jaguars, a team that sported one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season based on DVOA (No. 31) and is primed to do so once again in 2020.

The Steelers (No. 3) and Vikings (No. 8) were both top 10 in the metric, while the Broncos (No. 16) ranked right in the middle of the NFL and should be an improved defense overall this upcoming season.

The good news for Henry is that things get easier from there.

PFF ranks the Titans’ running back strength of schedule as the ninth-easiest overall. In terms of the fantasy football playoffs (Weeks 14-16), Henry has the easiest slate of run defenses in the NFL in that span.

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Darrell Henderson’s quiet rookie year could make him a fantasy steal in 2020

Darrell Henderson’s ADP is well below last year’s average.

After the Rams traded up to select Darrell Henderson in the third round of last year’s draft, the rampant speculation about his role and Todd Gurley’s future began. While he wasn’t anything close to Gurley’s replacement in 2019, he clearly was part of the team’s plan to move on from Gurley at some point in the future.

That point just happened to be this offseason as the Rams surprisingly cut Gurley in March, one month before drafting Cam Akers in the second round.

Henderson was a hot target for fantasy players in draft’s last year, seeming like a smart handcuff for Gurley. He rewarded those fantasy owners who drafted him around the seventh round with 184 total yards, zero touchdowns and 18 total fantasy points.

After that disappointing rookie season, his stock has tumbled in fantasy football. As Mike Clay of ESPN pointed out, Henderson was going in the seventh round in most drafts last year, but his ADP (average draft position) dropped to Round 11 this year.

It’s a puzzling development considering he has a better chance to earn significant playing time this season than he did last year. Akers is likely to be the top guy in the backfield, but if Henderson shines this summer, he could be the choice to get most of the carries – especially with Akers’ limited practice time due to the coronavirus.

As an 11th-round pick in fantasy, Henderson could prove to be a steal. Players being picked in around the same time as Henderson include Ronald Jones, J.K. Dobbins and Latavius Murray, none of whom are close to being surefire starters.

Akers, for comparison, is going about 15 picks before Henderson, according to Fantasy Pros ADP, which is fair. He’s received high praise from the Rams’ decision-makers and seems like the better choice to handle first- and second-down carries instead of Henderson.

That being said, Henderson is absolutely worth a late-round flier because of the upside he offers. If Akers stumbles this summer or early in the season, Henderson should be the next man up. Even if Henderson gets 5-10 touches per game, he could easily turn that into 30-50 yards thanks to his big-play ability.

Few players at that point in the draft offer as much reward as Henderson could.

ESPN lists Gardner Minshew as a fantasy sleeper

ESPN fantasy football guru Eric Karabell likes the growth Gardner Minshew showed as a rookie an believes he’ll take another step in 2020.

While the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 2019 season was one most fans would rather forget about, rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew II provided a ray of hope for the 2020 season after aiding the team to all their wins. As a result, he’ll not only be one of the most anticipated players to watch by Jags fans, but one of the most anticipated to watch in the NFL.

There are some national pundits who also picked up on the rookies success last year and believe he has what it takes to make a bigger impact in 2020. ESPN Fantasy guru Eric Karabell is the latest to jump on the bandwagon as he listed Minshew amongst the top sleepers at the quarterback position.

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: Minshew is more than just a fine mustache. A surprising QB2 when active as a rookie, Minshew not only has plenty of tools to succeed and overcome pre-draft concerns as a passer, he emerged as an underrated thrower of the deep pass, and only four quarterbacks rushed for more yards last season. The Jaguars seemed a bit indifferent to building a contending team for 2020, and the quarterback competition is over with Nick Foles gone, so expect Minshew to throw and run to his heart’s content — and pile on enough fantasy points to matter.

Despite the Jags adding more on defense than offense this offseason, Minshew very well could step his game up. An X-factor that could help him do that is new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, who had success with Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins in the early parts of their careers.

The Jags also will have a stronger receivers corps, though the key will be health with the group. They drafted big-target receivers in Laviska Shenault Jr. and Collin Johnson, who were stars on the collegiate level. They also added veteran tight end Tyler Eifert, who played under Gruden in Cincinnati and brings familiarity to the offense.

The Jags will also get a draft pick they were super high on back from the 2019 class in Josh Oliver, who ended up missing a majority of the season with a hamstring issue and a back injury that placed him on injured reserve. One of Minshew’s favorite targets, James O’Shaughnessy, will also be back off IR after sustaining an ACL tear in 2019.

Add the aforementioned names in with pro bowler D.J. Chark and veteran Chris Conley, and yes, Minshew could be very productive in 2020. Again, it will just come down to his pass-catchers staying healthy and his offensive line playing better than they did in 2019.

Matt Barkley accidentally taken second overall in fantasy draft

Matt Barkley gave props to a fantasy football player who accidentally drafted him second overall instead of running back Saquon Barkley.

For the most novice fantasy football player to those who play in expert leagues, it’s always imperative to strike gold with your first round pick.

Usually a running back or a wide receiver, at least in most formats, your first pick needs to anchor your team with consistent performances throughout the season if you want to have any chance of winning your league and taking money off your family, friends and/or co-workers.

While taking a quarterback in the first round is generally frowned upon, taking a journeyman backup quarterback will generally get you booted from the league – or heavily ridiculed, like the situation for William Jordan Ennis.

Ennis was invited to participate in the famous “Scott Fish Bowl” fantasy football league – one of the most prominent fantasy leagues in existence.

Sporting the No. 2 pick, Ennis watched as Christian McCaffrey came off the board, setting him up to take Giants running back Saquon Barkley.

However, in a mistake that will likely haunt him for a while, Ennis accidentally selected former USC Trojans quarterback Matt Barkley – who is now a backup quarterback with the Buffalo Bills.

While Barkley is almost certainly not going to contribute much, if anything, to Ennis’ squad – he at least gave him a shoutout on Twitter for the gaffe.

Barkley looked like a future fantasy star during his time with the Trojans, but he has served instead as a journeyman backup in the NFL – completing 27 passes for 359 yards and zero touchdowns last season as Josh Allen’s primary backup.

This year he will compete with rookie Jake Fromm for the same role, and while he’s likely to win out he is almost certainly not worth a look in any fantasy format – and not as the second overall pick, regardless of the props you will get from him on social media.

For a look at which former Trojans you should target in fantasy football leagues, click here.

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ESPN names Bills’ Devin Singletary a 2020 ‘breakout’ candidate

Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary named a fantasy football breakout candidate by ESPN.

There’s a lot of excitement in Orchard Park for the Bills in 2020. There’s youth and talent all over the team’s roster.

Among the position groups that line up perfectly with this feeling is the team’s backfield.

In his rookie season, Buffalo saw running back Devin Singletary slowly turn up the heat on opposing defenses with his quick and slick running style. Now rookie Zack Moss joins him. That could be a promising one-two punch.

But could it be Singletary providing a little bit more value? ESPN reflected that recently in one of their 2020 fantasy football breakdowns. Singletary was tabbed as a potential “breakout player” next season in the NFL. Here’s why fantasy football analyst Tristan Cockcroft thinks so:

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills: Things were looking up for Singletary during the second half of an otherwise forgettable 2019, as he averaged 16.4 carries per game and 4.6 yards per carry with 30 total targets in his final eight regular-season contests, then managed 134 yards from scrimmage in the wild-card round. With Frank Gore gone, Singletary should see easily at least that much usage and arguably more; and with Allen unlikely to repeat his 2019 rushing success, the Bills should really shift more of their rushing focus to the second-year back. Zack Moss does loom as a potential goal-line vulture, but Singletary should put forth high-end RB2 value for an RB3’s price.

Singletary certainly could be a breakout and sleeper player in terms of fantasy football. He could just be one overall in the NFL, too. Usually it’s the sexy stats and numbers that stand out for all players. Singletary doesn’t have them, but observers of the Bills saw it. He passed the eye test as a rookie.

Down the stretch in 2019, Singletary simply looked better starting with health. Early in that season, the vet in Gore did get plenty of carries over Singletary, but the then-rookie also missed time due to a hamstring injury as well. It looked as if Singletary quickly put that behind him, though.

In total, Singletary rushed for 775 yards in 12 games. In 16 games, the sexy stat probably stands out. That stat for running backs is essentially a fourth digit on rushing yards, meaning more than 1,000. If healthy, even in a split backfield, Singletary showed he has potential to get there next season.

And in terms of “what have you done for me lately?” Singletary averaged 4.5 yards per carry in Buffalo’s playoff loss to the Texans in January, and had a team-high six catches and 76 receiving yards.

Not crazy to see a potential breakout in the making here.

 

 

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ESPN’s ‘injury expert’ forecasts Derrius Guice as fantasy football ‘bust’ in 2020

With major question marks surrounding Guice and his health going forward, having Stephania Bell labeling him as a bust is troubling.

If you’re a Washington fan and you’ve started thinking about the 2020 fantasy football season, there’s a crucial question that has likely crossed your mind.

Can you trust Derrius Guice this season?

We’ve seen glimpses of him in the past and witnessed some pretty impressive play. In a small sample size in 2019, he racked up three touchdowns and proved that he was dangerous with the ball in his hands. I’m not going to lie, I threw Guice in my lineup against the Carolina Panthers last year, and he rewarded me with 129 yards and two touchdowns. Not all of us could be so lucky, though, as many people drafted him in the middle rounds before the season, and were forced to let him go once his second career trip to the IR happened after Week 1.

So the golden question going forward is whether or not Guice’s injury troubles — he was again sent to the IR at the end of the 2019 season with a strained knee — are a matter of bad luck or not. Maybe he’s just injury prone?

Unfortunately for those in the former camp, a grim detail arose from ESPN’s Fantasy Football outlook that was released earlier this week. Stephania Bell, who is the company’s noted injury expert, has Guice listed as her pick to be a ‘Running Back Bust’ in 2020. If you’re to read between the lines, that likely means that she isn’t confident he will be able to stay on the field for long periods of time.

If it were anyone else on the list that had Guice as a bust, I wouldn’t bat an eye. However, if an injury specialist who has her Masters in physical therapy has doubts, I might have doubts as well.

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PFF thinks Irv Smith Jr. is a breakout TE candidate for 2020

As a rookie, Smith finished with 36 catches for 311 yards and two touchdowns.

The Vikings drafted Irv Smith Jr. in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft.

While the team already had Kyle Rudolph, Smith is a more dynamic pass catcher than Rudolph and it would seem he has a higher ceiling.

With Rudolph getting older, there’s a good chance we’ll see more of Smith in a pass-catching role with the Vikings in 2020.

Andrew Erickson over at Pro Football Focus thinks Smith can be a fantasy football breakout star in 2020.

Here’s a bit of what Erickson wrote about Smith:

Irv Smith Jr. is entering his second year in the NFL after an encouraging rookie season with the Minnesota Vikings. The former second-round pick from Alabama was the highest-graded tight end (65.0) among the 2019 tight end draft class who saw at least 40 targets. Smith also owned the sixth-best catch rate (78.3%) among all qualifying tight ends.

As a rookie, Smith finished with 36 catches for 311 yards and two touchdowns. I would expect those numbers to increase quite a bit in 2020.

5 Jets who could be impact fantasy players in 2020

The Jets Wire takes a look at the five Jets, who could be impact fantasy players during the 2020 season.

While the Jets are not going to set the fantasy football world ablaze in 2020, they have a few players who could be contributors.

New York’s players are largely looked at as last resort options in fantasy football due to the team’s consistent offensive struggles. However, with multiple players poised for breakout years, there should be some Jets worth considering when fantasy football players are compiling their teams.

With that said, here are five Jets who could be impact fantasy players for the 2020 season.

QB Sam Darnold

(Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

While Sam Darnold probably won’t be starting in a one-QB league, he is certainly a viable option as a bye-week fill-in.

Darnold averaged 13 fantasy points per game in 2019, according to FantasyData.com. While Darnold was able to ride an offensive high in wins against the Cowboys, Giants, Redskins and Raiders, his season average was weighed down by his abysmal performance against the Patriots on Monday Night Football.

Behind a remodeled offensive line and with new weapons in the fold, Darnold could have a breakout year, which fantasy football experts were predicting prior to the 2019 season.

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