Should you avoid taking Raiders WR Henry Ruggs III in your fantasy drafts?
The key to winning any fantasy football draft is deciding which rookies you should target and which ones you should avoid. Last year, taking players like D.K.Metcalf, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel all out-produced their average draft positions (ADP). But players like David Montgomery and N’Keal Harry proved to be busts given their ADPs.
This year, there are a ton of rookies, especially at receiver, who could put up big numbers in their respective offenses. One such player is Henry Ruggs III, who was the first receiver selected in April’s draft. While the reports from training camp have been positive about Ruggs, should you select him in your fantasy drafts?
In a recent article by Sosa Kremenjas of Pro Football Focus, he discussed why it might be a smart decision to pass on Ruggs at his current price. Here is a sample of Kremenjas thoughts on the former Alabama star heading into his rookie season:
Even though Ruggs isn’t the most pro-ready option, there may not be a player with more game-breaking ability from the 2020 draft class. The issue with Ruggs’ current ADP is that it’s slotted ahead of proven and productive veterans such as Golden Tate, Robby Anderson and Sammy Watkins. Ruggs’ current ADP of WR50 lands him nearly in the exact same spot as PFF’s fantasy projections, which rank him as WR51. Expect some hiccups for the rookie, which could ultimately lead to a slow start in the fantasy football world.
While it’s true that Ruggs doesn’t have the experience of a Golden Tate or Sammy Watkins, his upside certainly outweighs his floor. Ruggs could easily be the Raiders’ No. 1 receiver this season and Jon Gruden’s history shows that he feeds his top option a ton of targets.
Considering his current price, Ruggs is a perfect upside pick in the double-digit rounds. Don’t be afraid of picking the speedster as he could easily outperform his draft position by multiple rounds this season.
Examining the best value buys in fantasy football average draft placement trends.
Everyone playing fantasy football should be looking to land optimal value with each pick, but anyone with experience knows that rarely actually happens. We all have our favorites for whom we’re willing to reach, which tends to drive down the draft stock of other players. As a result, we see trends that produce undervalued fantasy football picks.
In this release, undervalued players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts. The following players represent the best bang for your buck in relation to their average draft placement (ADP).
Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.
2020 Fantasy football value buys
(Charles LeClaire, USA TODAY Sports)
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford | Detroit Lions | ADP: 10:03
In 2019, before Stafford suffered a season-ending back injury that is no longer an issue, he was on pace for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. We’ve seen him do it before, so this wasn’t totally out of left field. OC Darrell Bevell has a reputation for being a run-first play-caller, but it’s somewhat skewed since he had Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch in their respective prime on his teams. Detroit’s running game has to be better this year, which means we’re unlikely to see 5k from Stafford, but he’s quite efficient and has a supporting cast to do some damage.
The value of a proven veteran entering Year 2 in an offense while so many other quarterbacks will be scrambling to play catch-up once on-field activities resume cannot go underappreciated. In 2020 drafts, waiting on your quarterback will pay off, and landing this Lion is a wise investment. He’s a viable QB1 but requires a competent counterpart on draft day. Be aware, however, gamers are starting to catch on to his value.
NEW — Jared Goff | Los Angeles Rams | ADP: 13:05
While Goff comes with significant risks, he also is a reasonably sound value as a strong backup to an elite starter, such as Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson. One of the advantages of investing highly in a quarterback is not having to come back and spend up on a backup. In fact, many times I’ve advocated to entirely avoid a backup, but it depends upon the owner and situation.
For owners who opt to wait on the position, Goff is a fringe starter when the matchup is right, although it effectively requires a similar investment at the position. Volume alone will carry him most weeks, especially if the mostly untested backfield struggles. The defense is bound to take a step backward by way of personnel losses and the move to an untested, new coordinator, which also suggests more passing.
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Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans | ADP: 14:02
Of quarterbacks to start at least 10 times last year, Tannehill rated as the No. 10 fantasy quarterback on a per-game basis. He threw 22 touchdowns against only six picks, and didn’t toss an INT in seven of his appearances. Over the final six regular-season games, he really found his groove and was good for at least 26.7 fantasy points in four of those outings.
People may let the playoffs stick in their mind where Tannehill wasn’t asked to throw the ball. It’s fair, since the offense runs through Derrick Henry. The receiving corps should be better with A.J. Brown ready to ascend in Year 2, Corey Davis playing for a contract in 2021, and Adam Humphries coming back healthy. Tannehill won’t lose you games, which may be extra important in a season with a limited offseason routine and an abbreviated preseason. Trust him as a matchup-play QB2.
Philip Rivers | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 14:05
It’s easy to feel nervous about rostering an average-armed, 38-year-old quarterback whose mobility never has been his strong suit. Sometimes we have to defy conventional logic and focus on intangibles. Rivers is reunited with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni in Indy, taking snaps behind what is arguably the best line in football.
The weaponry is young after wideout T.Y. Hilton, who is coming off of an injury-marred campaign. However, veteran tight end Jack Doyle isn’t fighting rehab or losing touches to Eric Ebron. The backfield is better than it has been in years, and Rivers will be able to rely on play-action passing. The Colts have two promising former second-round picks in wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Parris Campbell to complement each other in ideal ways. Rivers is not a No. 1 fantasy quarterback, but there will be weeks he plays like it, and gamers need to take advantage of it with rotational QB play at a cheap price.
(Brace Hemmelgarn, USA TODAY Sports)
Running backs
NEW — Ronald Jones | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | ADP: 6:05
This one is kind of tricky. Jones was publicly tabbed as the starter, despite the signing of LeSean McCoy and drafting of Ke’Shawn Vaughn. This will be an exceptionally difficult year for rookies, even at running back, although Vaughn wasn’t exactly a slam dunk prior to the McCoy signing. As for the veteran, you can be the judge of whether he has anything left in the tank, but it should be rather telling that McCoy couldn’t even make the active roster during the final weeks of the 2019 season playing under Andy Reid.
Jones suffered through an objectively awful rookie season but managed to turn it around in a respectable way as a sophomore. Year 3 should be even better with a more disciplined offense under quarterback in Tom Brady. The defense is solid enough to keep the offense in games, and Jones has an opportunity to learn from McCoy. Don’t be overly fearful of Shady’s role. Don’t give Vaughn the benefit of the doubt. Trust in Jones’ trajectory, but be prepared to jump ship if his ADP climbs closer to the 40s. Currently, he sits behind major question marks in the ADP pecking order.
Matt Breida | Miami Dolphins | ADP: 8:06
The explosive runner was dealt from the San Francisco 49ers to the Dolphins during the draft and will form a one-two punch with the more powerful Jordan Howard. First and foremost, injuries are a concern with Breida. He battled an ankle sprain on more than one occasion in the past two seasons, yet he still gutted it out and played a few times when it looked grim in the days leading up to kickoff. When healthy, he is a low-volume, high-output weapon with the ability to contribute in the passing game.
Breida began the year strong for San Fran in 2019, logging at least 14 touches in the first four games. He scored twice, racked up two 100-yard games and then struggled to be relevant after suffering a Week 9 ankle sprain during a game in which he was returning to form after a two-week lull. The logjam in the 49ers’ backfield led to him being sent to Miami. Chan Gailey is the new OC in South Beach, and he has shown capable of producing a variety of successful offensive systems. There will be a lot of inconsistency from the entire Miami offense, but Breida’s efficiency gives him a chance to exceed expectations. He’s a value buy as a No. 3 back in PPR setups.
NEW — Tarik Cohen | Chicago Bears | ADP: 8:08
The Bears, outside of Allen Robinson, don’t have a great deal of fantasy prospects to be intrigued by on draft day. WR Anthony Miller could step up, but that relies on strong quarterback play from either Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles — something most gamers shouldn’t be comfortable banking on. Cohen, even in what was probably a down year by expectations, finished 2019 with only 669 offensive yards and a trio of touchdowns. The silver lining is he landed a career-high 79 receptions, which is what keeps his fantasy football value afloat.
Those 79 receptions realistically could be eclipsed in 2020, and Cohen is worth consideration only in PPR leagues. Let’s say the quarterbacks both struggle, and no receiver steps up to take pressure off of Robinson … that really leaves Cohen as the chief recipient of targets. The arrow aims north and for RB40 in the ADP charts.
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Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys | ADP: 10:10
There’s no reason anyone who takes Ezekiel Elliott should come away from their draft without Pollard in tow — unless you, the speculative buyer, swoops in first. Being a handcuff aside, there’s some one-off utility for Pollard being a standalone back some weeks. He can do it all and is efficient, which is favorable for a fringe lineup gamble. The Cowboys have a boatload of cash invested into Zeke, and while this shouldn’t be taken to the extreme, it’s not outlandish to think the coaching staff could look to lessen his workload after his COVID-19 diagnosis. No back has handled it more in the last two years than Elliott’s 736 touches (Christian McCaffrey is next at 729).
Pollard amassed 562 yards on 101 touches last year, and he scored three times. Half of his production came in two games that were blowouts in Dallas’ favor — a reality that makes playing him particularly treacherous. Simply put, if Elliott were to go down with a significant injury, fantasy owners have an immediate RB1 on their hands. Pollard is worth a slight reach if you’re thin at the position.
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Wide receivers
Jamison Crowder | New York Jets | ADP: 10:07
Does anyone really believe rookie Denzel Mims will be the No. 1 target for Sam Darnold following an offseason with no semblance of a conventional offseason layout, especially coming out of Baylor’s system? How about putting faith in journeyman Breshad Perriman finally living up to his potential as a former first-round pick after a handful of productive (and timely) fantasy games as a Buccaneer? If Perriman was so ready to ascend, why didn’t Tampa make an earnest effort to re-sign him? It’s not like the Jets splurged, even if it was still more than warranted ($8M) based on past production.
The point of all of that is the team’s No. 1 receiver is not coming off of the board until the 10th round in PPR leagues. That is insane. Crowder, aside from an injury-shortened season in Washington, has been quite productive out of the slot for gamers in reception-rewarding formats. New York threw to him 122 times last year, and the team actually regressed in the short term at WR in the meantime. Only 15 wideouts saw more balls come their way in ’19 … Chris Godwin had fewer looks and people are drafting him as a WR1. At any rate, Crowder finished WR26 in PPR without topping 900 yards. He’s being drafted as WR47. Even if he regresses slightly in targets, we’re still looking at a significant value buy.
NEW — Christian Kirk | Arizona Cardinals | ADP: 10:10
It’s always strange to see incongruent ADP trends within an offense. Quarterback Kyler Murray is going as a top-five passer, and DeAndre Hopkins is a top-three receiver, but Kirk is WR46? Larry Fitzgerald is WR64? There’s no tight end to speak of in this four-wide system. Running back Kenyan Drake caught 28 passes in eight games with Arizona last season. The point being, how can Murray dominate if only Nuk is forecasted to stand out?
Kirk enters Year 3 and is poised to anchor the No. 2 spot ahead of Fitz. Durability is a concern after he has failed to play more than 13 games in his two pro seasons. Kirk averaged 5.2 targets per contest in 2019, and the continuity of the system and quarterback will be a huge help in this pandemic-stricken season. There is plenty of action to go around in an offense that went three- and four-wide 81 percent of its snaps last season. He won’t be a TD machine, nor will Kirk become a guaranteed weekly starter, but the 46th receiver drafted, on average, is at least a flex consideration.
NEW — Golden Tate | New York Giants | ADP: 13:10
Currently, 57 other receivers are being drafted, on average, ahead of Tate, which is pure lunacy. Yes, he’s well-aged for a receiver, turning 32 in early August. He played 11 games for the Giants last season and averaged 14 fantasy point per contest, which tied his second-best weekly rate over 10 years as a pro. Even if someone has concerns about Daniel Jones taking a significant step forward, many gamers are sold on his maturation after a promising rookie campaign. It stands to reason Tate would be a major part of Jones enjoying a breakout second season.
New York has a new offensive coordinator in Jason Garrett, whose system has proven successful for wideouts in the past. Tate has demonstrated an ability to quickly pick up a new offense more than once. The Giants upgraded defensive personnel, which could lead to less passing, in the best-case scenario. The loss of left tackle Nate Solder is a legit concern, too. However, Tate could be force-fed targets if injuries once again take out Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Tate is a point-per-reception WR3 at a ridiculous value.
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Parris Campbell | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: N/A
It’s understandable why fantasy owner have been standoffish toward Campbell in the early going of drafting. He was an utter disappointment as a rookie and barely was able to get onto the field. In seven games, the 2019 second-rounder managed a paltry 18 catches for 127 yards and a score, averaging only 7.1 yards per snag. He has speed for days and will have a second offseason to fully digest the playbook. Staying off of the trainer’s table is a must, however.
Campbell doesn’t come without risk, but the upside outweighs it with a late-round selection in drafts. He’s going to be at least in competition for the No. 2 looks behind T.Y. Hilton in an offense that will go from Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer to Philip Rivers under center. Even at his advanced age (38), Rivers is an upgrade. While Indy added a receiver in Round 2 this year, as well, there’s a steeper learning curve in the pandemic timeline for a rookie. Besides, Michael Pittman Jr. and Campbell are hardly the same style of player. The Ohio State product is not being drafted, on average, in the top 67 receivers, so taking a late-round gamble on him isn’t going to crater your season. Perhaps he can finally figure out how to put all of that speed to good use.
(Ed Mulholland, USA TODAY Sports)
Tight ends
Mike Gesicki | Miami Dolphins | ADP: 13:03
There’s a natural trajectory developing right before our eyes, and too few early-drafting fantasy footballers aren’t keen to his potential. Gesicki’s rookie season was so disastrous it seemingly has negatively affected his fantasy football perception a great deal. Gesicki was targeted at least six times in 10 of this games last year, landing four or more balls in all but three of them. Following 16 games as a rookie without finding paydirt, Year 2 began with another lengthy scoreless string for the Penn State product. It took Gesicki 25 appearances into his NFL career to find the end zone, but once he did, five touchdowns poured in over the last six games.
The Dolphins will have a new system in 2020 under veteran play-caller Chan Gailey. His system has adapted so many times throughout the years, finding ample work for a tight end on the rise shouldn’t be a concern — especially given all of the questions among the receiving corps. There was obvious chemistry between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Gesicki as 2019 closed out. It’s only a matter of time before we see Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, and inexperienced quarterbacks tend to rely on tight ends as a safety blanket. Gesicki is in an intriguing situation to vault from last year’s TE12 to somewhere in the middle of the pack among starters.
Jack Doyle | Indianapolis Colts | ADP: 14:03
Doyle is two season removed from an 80-catch, 690-yard, four-score showing with the Colts. He lost most of his 2018 season to injury, playing only six games, and the statistical pace was still right in line with his breakout year. The veteran returned to play 16 contests last year and scored four times once again, but his receptions (43) and yardage (448) were down. It was the first time in his career in which Doyle averaged north of 10 yards per grab, at least. He shared time with Eric Ebron, and Indy’s entire passing game was less than impressive as T.Y. Hilton battled injuries nearly all season.
In the upcoming year, though, Ebron is gone, Philip Rivers replaces Jacoby Brissett, and the only real competition for tight end looks is Trey Burton. To Burton’s credit, he stood out in Philly with current Colts head coach Frank Reich serving as OC. Rivers has made a living throwing to the tight end position, and the Colts upgraded talent in the receiving corps over the past two drafts, which should free up Doyle to see less attention in the intermediate portion of the route tree. No one should bank on Doyle carrying your fantasy team at tight end, of course, but he’s going as the 20th tight end drafted, which is tremendous value for a possible fantasy starter.
NEW — Dallas Goedert | Philadelphia Eagles | ADP: 13:09
It’s not often a backup tight end gets an inclusion in an undervalued players list, but that’s exactly what where Goedert finds himself after a breakthrough 2019 season. He averaged 9.9 PPR points per game as a sophomore, in part because of the rash of injuries Philly faced in the receiving corps. In that context, it’s easy to understand why Goedert went from No. 8 (among tight ends with at least 14 appearances) to ADP TE16.
Zach Ertz is the top dog, but he’s getting up there in tight end years and comes with some durability questions. The Eagles have WR Alshon Jeffery looking at staying on the PUP list to open the year. Wideout Marquise Goodwin opted out of the season, and DeSean Jackson is made of glass. Third-down back Boston Scott is mostly unproven. … As one can see, there are many openings for Goedert to pick up where he left off. Consider him one of the few tight ends worthy of a selection with the intention of playing him as a flex.
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Kickers
Ka’imi Fairbairn | Houston Texans | ADP: 15:02
In 2018, Fairbairn led all kickers in fantasy football points. He regressed to PK19 last year, which came from a massive regression in field goal attempts, as well as make percentage, going from 2018’s 88.1 percent to 80.0 in 2019. The Texans made significant change on offense, bringing in running back David Johnson and trading wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in the offseason. It’s more than fair to expect this offense will take a step back in explosiveness and score fewer touchdowns. The entire offensive design should be more conservative based on the personnel limitations. More stalled drives tend to result in more three-point tries. If he could get closer to the 42 attempts of 2018 — even, say, kick 35 times — we’re talking about a mid-tier No. 1 kicker.
Josh Lambo | Jacksonville Jaguars | ADP: N/A
Last year’s No. 7 fantasy kicker isn’t getting drafted, on average, in the top 16 spots. He posted 7.4 fantasy points per game in 2019, marking the third time in his past four seasons to score at least than much. Lambo’s fantasy success was fueled by a personal-best 34 field goal attempts and and insane 97.1 percent conversation rate. There will be regression in the accuracy, because that’s just not sustainable over time. To counter it, look for an increase from 20 extra point attempts. This offense figures to be more prolific in the TD column with a proven play-caller in Jay Gruden, the maturation of QB Gardner Minshew, and upgrades in the offensive personnel.
Defense/special teams
Indianapolis Colts | Undervalued | ADP: N/A
The Colts added DeForest Buckner to shore up the front line, especially against the run. He adds a significant help in reaching the quarterback, too, having recorded 19.5 sacks in the last two years combined. The linebacking corps returns intact and healthy, which will be the key to steering this defense’s fantasy fortunes one way or the other. In the secondary, veterans T.J. Carrie (Browns) and Xavier Rhodes (Vikings) come over to bolster a pair of young safeties. Rhodes endured a rocky 2019 but shouldn’t be totally written off yet. Second-year corner Rock Ya-Sin figures to only be better. The schedule is quite reasonable, and this division has undergone significant enough changes to suggest there’s some upside in facing Jacksonville (young QB, new offense) and Houston (major RB and WR moves) twice apiece.
New Orleans Saints | Undervalued | ADP: N/A
In 2019, the Saints were fantasy’s fifth-best defensive unit for points scored. The value differential here is only four spots in relation to ADP, sot it’s not like this unit will be some kind of crazy steal. There’s a lot to be said for continuity in both personnel and coaching during the year of the pandemic, so don’t short-change the notion of stability. The pass rush should remain strong, and the secondary improved. The NFL draft brought in pass-rushing specialist Zack Baun. Offensive consistency also is an important factor, too, and it shouldn’t be understated. Don’t be suckered into overvaluing the universally preferred teams, like New England, Chicago and Buffalo, while passing on a smarter option in New Orleans.
Pro Football Focus believes Chargers Hunter Henry will have a big season in 2020.
Chargers tight end Hunter Henry has been on the outside of being considered one of the NFL’s top tight end. It’s primarily because he has struggled to stay healthy consistently. But Henry should be near the top of fantasy owner’s draft board this year.
Pro Football Focus’ Ian Haritz made fantasy football predictions for all 32 teams ahead of the 2020 NFL season, and he believes that Henry will finish as the offense’s most fantasy-friendly asset relative to their position.
Henry has emerged as one of the league’s most-talented TEs; his average of 8.95 yards per target is the eighth-highest mark among 52 TEs with at least 100 targets since 2016. Charles Clay had over 500 yards in each of his three seasons with Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo in offenses that also included the likes of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods. There’s a non-zero chance that Henry finds a way to lead the post-Philip Rivers Chargers in targets, and he’s talented enough to truly ball out with this type of role.
Henry flourished with Philip Rivers distributing the wealth to him, amassing 136 catches, 1,709 receiving yards, 12.6 yards per reception and 17 touchdowns in 41 games.
However, the quarterback change, whether it’s Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert, could lead to higher production than what he managed to do with Rivers.
When Taylor was the starter for the Bills from 2015-17, he favored tight end Charles Clay as his primary target, as Clay was targeted 238 times in 41 games. He caught 157 of them for 1,638 yards and six touchdowns.
If there is a switch at the quarterback position and the team decides to go with Herbert at some point during the season, Henry could quickly become the rookie’s go-to option.
During his time at Oregon, Herbert favored the team’s tight end in Jacob Breeland. The two linked up 74 times for 1,225 yards, 16.6 yards per reception and 13 touchdowns in four seasons.
Taylor and Herbert’s favoritism towards tight ends in the past could lead to a bright 2020 campaign for Henry, as he looks to earn a big contract extension. Health will be the biggest determining factor to his success.
This could be the season we see Kyle Rudolph take a step back in Minnesota’s offensive approach.
It’s fantasy football season, baby!
If you’re trying to draft a top-tier tight end in your fantasy league, it’s probably best to stay away from either Kyle Rudolph or Irv Smith Jr. of the Vikings.
Dwain McFarland over at Pro Football Focus put together his tight end tiers ahead of the fantasy football season. Smith ranks in the ‘Tier 8 – TE2’ tier along with Jace Sternberger, Chris Herndon, Ian Thomas, Blake Jarwin and Eric Ebron.
Not exactly guys who are going in the first few rounds of your draft.
Meanwhile, Rudolph ranks in the tier below Smith along with Greg Olsen and Tyler Eifert.
We’ve speculated more than a few times on this site that 2020 will be the season when we’ll see far less of Rudolph in the passing game, giving Smith a bigger opportunity. Smith was the team’s second-round pick in 2019 for a reason.
Rudolph is probably a streaming option, while Smith could be a good option as a backup or a high-upside third tight end if your roster allows it.
You can check out McFarland’s full tier rankings here.
Taking a second look at a trio of fantasy football picks.
Over the past few months, several fantasy football draft choices haven’t exactly resonated with me, but I am finding myself warming up to them for varying reasons.
One key attribute successful fantasy football gamers exhibit over the course of the long haul is flexibility in their perception of players. Two years ago, I entered the early draft season not all that high on Patrick Mahomes, but more investigation led me to flip a 180 and include him in my sleepers list. We all saw how his season turned out. That wasn’t written to pat myself on the back but rather to illustrate how it’s so easy to get caught up in positive and negative perceptions of situations and/or players themselves. We all need our own occasional reality check.
In 2020, the fear of COVID-19 infecting a player (or several) on a team at any given moment means drafters must be more willing than ever to consider flexibility as one of our chief tools in the box. Being able to pivot in a moment’s notice now is critical beyond our wildest imagination in relation to this time last year.
QB Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers: Don’t get me wrong, he’s a game manager by nature. It was on full display in all but one of his games with the 2019 New Orleans Saints and that impressive cast of weapons. But that was last year, and we never really saw a full year of a seasoned veteran version of him prior to joining the Saints.
At any rate, Carolina has a lousy defense, and this team underwent a regime change to a first-time NFL head coach and rookie playcaller combo. The weaponry is three-deep at wideout with players who can start for just about every team in the league, and the offensive line has seen a slight improvement over the offseason. Christian McCaffrey is the best the game has to offer out of the backfield, as well. Increased volume is good and bad. There will be bumps, but Bridgewater officially has my attention as a backup to an elite starter and in best-ball leagues because of the opportunity to sling it more than ever.
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WR Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans: The well-traveled wideout and I have experienced a mixed history in recent years. A few months ago, skepticism overshadowed my overall views of him. Last year, he was a major disappointment, largely due to fighting injuries. The entire Los Angeles Rams offense was embattled in an uphill fight in 2019. Houston’s offense desperately needs someone to step up to replace DeAndre Hopkins, and Deshaun Watson is an upgrade in many ways over Jared Goff.
Working in Cooks’ favor during this funky offseason, he has excelled immediately everywhere he has played. In the four seasons (three different teams) before 2019, Cooks was good for at least 65 receptions, 1,082 yards and five scores. He averaged at least 15 PPR points per game in three of those four campaigns. In other words, Cooks has earned the benefit of the doubt, and I’m loving the value in drafting him near his WR31 spot in the ADP charts.
WR Emmanuel Sanders, New Orleans Saints: My gut reaction was gamers would overvalue the veteran once Sanders signed in free agency. It was shaping up to be the case early on, but the script has flipped. He’s going, on average, as the 39th receiver in PPR, checking in as a marked value in Round 9. Sanders is a Michael Thomas injury away from being the top dog in an exceptional fantasy passing factory, and even with Thomas staying healthy, there are plenty of paths to success more often than not.
Sanders overcame a torn Achilles tendon in 2018 and actually increased his yards-per-reception average in 2019 to its highest figure since 2015. He, too, picked up the offense in San Francisco in a hurry following a midseason trade. After suffering through suspect QB play in recent years, connecting on passes from Drew Brees makes Sanders more intriguing in best-ball leagues and as a weekly matchup play, predominantly due to there being so many mouths to feed in this system.
Thielen had a down 2019 after two-straight 1,000-yard seasons.
We’re at the “when’s your fantasy draft?” time of the summer.
If you’re a Vikings’ fan, you’re probably trying to figure out how you can get one or two players in purple on your team.
What about wide receiver Adam Thielen, who had an injury-riddled 2019 season after back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons?
Nathan Jahnke over at Pro Football Focus put receivers into different fantasy tiers and Thielen is in the fifth tier, behind 10 other receivers.
Other receivers in the fifth tier include Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
For what it’s worth, former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs finds himself in tier seven.
Where should you consider drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady in your fantasy football draft?
One of the keys to dominating your fantasy football draft is deciding how to how to pick/avoid some of the players with the most hype entering the year. Today, we are going to look at when to draft Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady in your fantasy football league.
For the purpose of this article, we will be looking at the fantasy football average draft positions (ADP) listed below are from standard 12-team PPR leagues via MyFantasyLeague.com. If you are playing in a 2-QB league or a Superflex league, obviously, Brady will be selected much higher than a traditional 12-team standard league.
First and foremost, Brady is currently being selected at pick No. 88, or as QB15 in MFL leagues. That means Brady is often coming off the board in the eighth round, behind players like Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones and even Baker Mayfield in some cases. Is that too low for arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history? Not really.
In 2019, Brady finished as QB12 in standard-scoring leagues, averaging 16.5 fantasy points per contest. He had just six weeks when he scored more than 20 points in a game and seven weeks in which he scored fewer than 14 fantasy points. But what is fascinating is that the quarterback Brady is replacing (Jameis Winston) finished fifth in fantasy points last season, averaging over 19 points per contest.
So isn’t it as simple as replacing Brady’s 2019 stats with Winston’s given the change in offense and talent around him? Not exactly.
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By nature, Winston is a quarterback who is willing to take chances and throw the ball down the field. The result is a ton of passing yards (5,109) and 33 passing touchdowns, which was the second-most in the NFL. It also meant a ton of interceptions (30) and not a lot of wins for the Buccaneers… in comparison, Brady has thrown just 27 interceptions in the past three seasons combined.
Over the last few seasons, we’ve seen Brady morph into a different style of quarterback. He tries to eliminate risky throws and will take sacks instead of moving around in the pocket. Brady doesn’t have the same arm strength at this point in his career, so he doesn’t throw the ball down the field very often.
Simply put, it’s very unlikely that we will see Brady attempt a ton of aggressive throws that typically lead to fantasy points. Instead, you will see more of a game-manager quarterback who tries to keep his interception total under 10. Unfortunately for fantasy players, this won’t lead to a ton of points and it limits his ceiling.
It’s also noteworthy that Brady doesn’t possess the rushing upside either, which can help raise a quarterback’s ceiling. For the most part, Brady is a low-upside quarterback who won’t win your league for you in the ways that a Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott can in any given week.
However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t draft Brady. At QB15, Brady’s lack of a ceiling is priced in. If you want to pair Brady with a high-upside quarterback, such as Daniel Jones or Cam Newton, he suddenly becomes a value. And with Brady expected to play in several high-scoring games in the NFC South, he becomes an interesting quarterback to play the matchups with.
The biggest problem with Brady isn’t that he is being drafted as QB15. Instead, where QB15 is coming off the board. The eighth round is just too high for a low-upside quarterback like Brady, especially with all of the players going behind him like Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo. All three of those quarterbacks possess the same type of floor and ceiling as Brady, but they are all significantly cheaper.
If you are convinced that Brady could have a big season in 2020 with Tampa Bay, wait and see if he falls into the double-digit rounds before selecting him. Otherwise, you are over-drafting a quarterback who is unlikely to outproduce his ADP. But given Brady’s name and excitement around him, expect the new Buccaneers’ quarterback to go much earlier in drafts than he should.
Today we look at the top overall fantasy football rankings, courtesy of our friends at TheHuddle.com.
2020 Fantasy Football Rankings
Quarterbacks
1. Lamar Jackson, BAL
2. Patrick Mahomes, KC
3. Dak Prescott, DAL
4. Kyler Murray, ARI
5. Russell Wilson, SEA
6. Deshaun Watson, HOU
7. Matthew Stafford, DET
8. Carson Wentz, PHI
9. Aaron Rodgers, GB
10. Daniel Jones, NYG
11. Matt Ryan, ATL
12. Josh Allen, BUF
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Access a full set of 2020 fantasy football rankings and projections at TheHuddle.com, where they have been creating fantasy football champions for over 20 years. Use the code SBW20 to take $10 off your 2020 subscription: Sign up now!
When should you draft Raiders WR Henry Ruggs in your fantasy league?
Believe it or not, fantasy football is here. And with no preseason, drafts will be happening all over the world in the month of August. Today, we are taking a look at rookie receiver Henry Ruggs and where you should take him in drafts.
Currently on MyFantasyLeague.com, Ruggs is being drafted at pick No. 116, which around the 10th or 11th round of standard 12-team PPR drafts. Ruggs isn’t even the first rookie receiver being drafted as CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Jalen Reagor are all being selected ahead of him.
While some of those rookie receivers may have higher floors, none have a higher ceiling this season than Ruggs. In a recent piece by Ian Hartitz of Pro Football Focus, one of his bold predictions for the year was that Ruggs would finish the 2020 season as the highest-scoring rookie receiver in the class:
The former Alabama WR possesses blistering speed that helped him average a robust 17.5 yards per reception during his career. Somehow, Ruggs looks even faster on the field than his 4.27 40-yard dash might indicate. Jon Gruden’s target leader has received 153, 145, 133, 140, 142, 139, 122, 152, 143, 98, 138, 101 and most-recently 117 targets. Derek Carr’s pecking order is hardly defined, but Ruggs is my rookie WR1 for both his underrated potential target share and game-breaking ability.
If Ruggs sees 100 or more targets this season as Hartitz suggested, he is going to outperform his average draft position by multiple rounds. Given his speed and ability to win after the catch, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ruggs flirts with 1,000 receiving yards if he sees that many opportunities.
While you won’t want to rely on Ruggs as your No. 1 or No. 2 receiver in fantasy football, pencil him into your draft plans anywhere from the ninth-round on as he could easily return value in the Raiders’ offense. Of all the rookie receivers being selected in fantasy drafts right now, Ruggs offers the highest ceiling and best value at his current price.
Our Derek Okrie looks at the 2020 Fantasy Football market and ranks his Top 10 running backs for the upcoming season.
At this point, it’s safe to say that the running back has returned as the dominant position in fantasy football once again.
Regardless of your league format, you’ll need to take running backs with your first couple picks because if you wait they will be gone, and then you will be hunting for late-round gems — hoping they get you by.
Former Detroit Lions’ coach Jim Schwartz often said, “Hope is not a strategy”, so don’t hope to find running backs. Instead, use a proven strategy to draft them early and often. You can select your other needed positions later.
The Lions have taken that same strategy of drafting running backs early the past few years and look at how they are positioned now. By invested highly in the position, the Lions will arguably have their best running backs since Barry Sanders and you should do the same in your fantasy football drafts.
Here is what you want in a fantasy football running back:
Can he catch the football?
Does his team throw him the football often?
Does he score touchdowns?
If your answer is yes to those three questions, you are well on your way to a top fantasy running back worth drafting high. Other factors such as injury history, overall usage, character, offense style, quarterback play, etc. should all factor into your draft strategy.
Now on to my list of running backs you want on your team for 2020.
Top 10 RB’s for 2020:
1. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers – He’s the top pick in every fantasy draft you will see regardless of format. He can do it all and the volume will be there in both the run and pass game. McCaffery is averaging 111 catches over the past two seasons, which is insane for a wide receiver let alone a running back.
2. Saquon Barkley, Giants – Look for a huge bounce-back year from Barkley this season. It is funny how one injury will make people forget about the elite talent a player has. It wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he finishes as the top running back in fantasy if the rest of the New York Giants help him out.
3. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys – He’s just solid and consistent every year. I would like to see them throw Elliott some more passes this year, but I expect him to have more touchdowns in a potent Dallas offense.
4. Alvin Kamara, Saints – He has a similar skill set as McCaffery, and this seems to be the year where he might put it all together and even land higher than where I have him right now.
5. Joe Mixon, Bengals – This is my breakout player this year. He’s been solid, but with Joe Burrow now as the Bengals quarterback and weapons on the outside at wide receiver, I expect Mixon to have amazing numbers. His yards per carry average (4.2-yards over his career) and his catches (36 per season on average) need to increase to reach his ceiling. They just have to feed him the ball more in Cincinnati.
6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs – Most won’t have him this high, but he’s climbing quick. He seems to be the obvious top running option now on the Kansas City Cheifs and you know that equals mega-points early for the talented running back out of LSU.
7. Dalvin Cook, Vikings – He really jumped off the screen when I watched him last year. His burst and ability seemed to be at another level. Can he repeat 13 touchdowns again this year or more? Injuries have always been his issue though and I expect it to be more of the same this year. Flashes of brilliance and more time in the trainer’s room.
8. Derrick Henry, Titans – The Titans decided to pay Henry, and I’m not sure that is a good thing for many different reasons. You can’t argue with his pure size and power though, so that still makes him dangerous every week. His heavy workload always gives him a high floor too. He’s a safe option, but not one I’m overly excited like others are coming off his dominant season in 2019.
9. Miles Sanders, Eagles – Another one of my favorite, young players here. He can catch the football and has similar athleticism to Saquon Barkley. He had 50 catches as a rookie and I only see that climbing exponentially this season. I expect Sanders to be dynamic in the Eagles offense and pick up where he left off at the end of last year.
10. Josh Jacobs, Raiders – I love the player and I love his situation, but I don’t love the shoulder injury he is coming off headed into this season. If he’s healthy all year and they throw him the football more, I could see him much higher when it’s all said and done.
Notable Lions RBs:
D’Andre Swift – Swift will be a fan favorite in Detroit, but may not be used to his full potential early. Stay patient and enjoy having Swift in a Lions uniform for years to come. I see him splitting with Kerryon Johnson early, but eventually being the main guy. Take him as one of those rookies you roll the dice on in the middle rounds.
Kerryon Johnson – I could see a bit of a bounce-back year coming if he’s healthy. Many are counting him out, but he still has the talent to run the ball well. He’s a late-round option, but I’d stay away for the most part until we know more about how he will be used with Swift now on the team and his overall health with the leg injuries he’s had.
Bo Scarborough, Ty Johnson, Jason Huntley – None of these guys should be on your fantasy team, but they could all help the Lions get more wins on the field in 2020 as they represent power, versatility, and speed between the three of them.
