Tag: Fantasy Football

The term “fantasy football sleeper” has taken on many meanings throughout the years, depending upon where one looks and to whom one asks. There is a fine line between “breakout candidates” and “sleepers,” just as there is nuance when comparing sleepers and “fliers.” “Undervalued players” fall into their own bracket, as well.

• Breakouts are players who’ve shown enough already to instill confidence they’re on the cusp of something monumental — a leap from sporadic contributions to must-start status.
• A sleeper is any player the general public tends to be overlooking in relation to positional peers.
• An undervalued player is a known commodity whose value has been driven downward by extenuating circumstances, usually the byproduct of drafters inflating the value of their favorite sleeper and breakout targets.
• Finally, a flier is one of those guys a drafter will spend late-round capital on just to see if a hunch will pay off.

Now that we’ve established the boundaries, understand all players will be addressed in the context of 12-team, 16-round drafts. Average draft placement data is merely a guideline based on current trends.

Check out David Dorey’s official sleepers and value plays for 2020.

Note: All ADP figures are courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com and are PPR scoring, unless noted otherwise. “N/A” represents not enough selections to warrant inclusion in the ADP charts.

2020 fantasy football sleepers and fliers

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew | Jacksonville Jaguars | Sleeper | ADP: 14:02

We saw plenty of flashes from Minshew as a rookie in 2019, finishing the year with eight games of at least 20 fantasy points, including a high-water mark of 30.9. The Jaguars’ offensive line should be improved this season, and the backfield remains stable, although unspectacular, which plays into Minshew’s favor. At receiver, the Jags return all three starters from last year, featuring third-year wideout DJ Chark, who is flirting with WR1 status if his trajectory holds up. The draft brought in rookie do-all weapon Laviska Shenault Jr., and veteran pass-catching tight end Tyler Eifert is now in the mix. Don’t forget third-down weapon Chris Thompson comes over from Washington with new coordinator Jay Gruden.

There should always be some concern with a new system installation, and even more so when a pandemic is impacting the offseason, but Minshew showed last year he has no issue picking up a system on the fly. He’s a strong No. 2 fantasy passer with starting utility when the matchup is right.

NEW — Teddy Bridgewater | Carolina Panthers | Flier | ADP: 14:10

I’ve written about Bridgewater not once but twice in recent time after coming around to his fantasy football potential. There’s a level of concern he’s just a guy masquerading as an NFL quarterback, which requires buying into him suspending some degree of belief that he’s merely a game manager. In Carolina, the well-traveled vet will be in charge of an offense orchestrated by a first-time coordinator and his rookie head coach amid a pandemic.

The plus side is this defense figures to be lousy, and the volume will be unlike anything Bridgewater has seen to date. Toss in the best running back in football with a trio of capable wideouts and we have a recipe for fantasy production. It may not always be pretty, but there is opportunity for a cheap source of starting-worthy output. Bridgewater’s best value is in best-ball formats because of this, and he’s a No. 2 gamble behind an elite starter in any conventional league.

Running backs

Justin Jackson | Los Angeles Chargers | Sleeper | ADP: 11:10

Entering Year 3, Jackson has a microscopic sample size as the No. 3 back behind Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon. The latter is gone, and the former can’t be expected to do it alone. Jackson’s body of work is 79 attempts for 406 yards (5.1 YPC) and a pair of scores. He isn’t much of a receiver — an area we’re likely to see more of Ekeler. Fourth-rounder Joshua Kelley will compete for time, but it’s safe to believe the rookie curve will be tougher this offseason.

Jackson may battle inconsistency at times, and the backfield is probably going to be the focus of extra defensive scrutiny if the passing game isn’t up to par after the departure of Philip Rivers. There’s reason to believe we won’t see No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert play meaningful snaps with Tyrod Taylor slated to open as the starting quarterback. Jackson runs tougher than his 5-foot-11, 193-pound frame suggests; he could be the preferred choice near the stripe. The long and short of it is gamers are snoozing on the third-year back, and he’s a capable RB3, especially in leagues that run deeper than average.

NEW — Damien Harris | New England Patriots | Sleeper | ADP: 10:11

Starting running back Sony Michel is always banged up, and this time he’s in jeopardy of missing the beginning of the regular season. Harris was a starter at Alabama and hasn’t been given a chance to shine in the pros (four career touches). The offense could take some time before the passing game is up to speed, and it’s questionable how much the coaching staff even wants Cam Newton to be throwing.

Brandon Bolden opted out. James White is entrenched as the pass-catching back. Michel, as mentioned, his on the mend. Rex Burkhead is hardly anyone to worry about. Harris could be the future beyond whatever Michel has left to offer, and it’s a worthy gamble to see if the Patriots deploy him in a meaningful way. Bill Belichick has no loyalty to any player so long as the replacement is performing. Harris has RB3 potential.

Darrynton Evans | Tennessee Titans | Sleeper | ADP: 14:01

In the 2020 draft, Tennessee arguably reached for the Appalachian State running back when it snagged Evans in Round 3. None of that matters now, because opportunity is all gamers should care about when evaluating the situation. Evans is an obvious contrast from the bruising rushing champ, and there’s little reason to expect the Titans to get away from riding Derrick Henry as the formula to their success.

Evans, though, could see more work as a spell or third-down option than we witnessed from Dion Lewis last year. The veteran touched the ball only 54 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Evans realistically could see numbers to the inverse of that stat line, touching the ball via in more passes than carries. There’s some guesswork at play when you don’t know how a small-school back will be ready for the pros in an abbreviated offseason. All bets are off, though, if the Titans opt to bring in one of the lingering veteran free agents.

Eno Benjamin | Arizona Cardinals | Flier | ADP: N/A

Total flier material here … in fact, Benjamin is barely draftable in deep leagues. If we play the “what if” game, he’s worthy of an inclusion in the event one of the catalysts were to come true. Those possible situations being: 1) Kenyan Drake’s brief but impressive run last year turns out to be a fluke 2) Drake gets hurt with a larger workload 3) Backup Chase Edmonds isn’t durable enough for even limited reps … any one of those situations could put Benjamin, a seventh-round rookie, into position to contribute. That said, all of those scenarios are far closer to being food for thought than anything to take to the bank. Benjamin is a late-round roll of the dice for those looking to take a chance.

Wide receivers

Diontae Johnson | Pittsburgh Steelers | Sleeper | ADP: 8:04

Few players are as intriguing as the second-year receiver. Ben Roethlisberger is throwing again after elbow surgery and will bring a much needed boost to the entire offense. Johnson offers a blend of speed and athleticism that was on display as a rookie, even through the quarterback carousel after Big Ben bit the dust. WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington help balance out the defensive attention, and the addition of tight end Eric Ebron adds another low-volume target to keep defenders on their toes while not posing a massive threat to Johnson’s target share.

Pittsburgh spent a 2019 third-round pick on Johnson, and the Toledo product didn’t disappoint. The offensive system remains the same, translating to less concern for developmental stalling that other blossoming receivers may encounter due to the coronavirus outbreak. Johnson drew no fewer than seven targets in each of the last four games of 2019, snaring four or more balls in every contest, and scoring twice along the way. He improved as the year went on and didn’t find the game to be too much for him as a rook. In some ways, his upside exceeds that of Smith-Schuster as the potential WR1 of this passing game. You’re looking at a rock-solid No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Josh Reynolds | Los Angeles Rams | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

The Rams featured a base three-receiver set a league-high 80 percent of the time in 2019 and a whopping 95 percent of the snaps in 2018. We’ve seen this offense generate three productive fantasy wideouts a number of times when injuries weren’t derailing Sean McVay’s plans, and now Brandin Cooks is a Houston Texan to pave the way for Reynolds to get his shot. Rookie receiver Van Jefferson will have a say in the matter, but so will an atypical offseason program for the youngster.

In 2019, Reynolds saw his work increase with Cooks on the shelf for two games and parts of others. It didn’t amount to huge stats for Reynolds, yet he still was relevant (19 targets, nine catches, 177 yards, one TD) as a flex consideration. Cooks was targeted 72 times, down from 117 the prior year when the offense was clicking. No Todd Gurley in the backfield could mean more passing, and it also opens up a few looks per game, in theory. Should Reynolds see somewhere in between those marks Cooks tallied, we’re looking at around 95 balls coming his way — good for WR3 numbers on the utilization front. Obviously looks alone don’t equate to points, so an even-keeled view is a flex option as the floor of his upside.

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NEW — Bisi Johnson | Minnesota Vikings | Flier | ADP: N/A

Pandemic-shortened offseason program. Check. Rookie receiver as chief competition. Check. Open starting spot to fill. Check. No. 1 receiver with injury concerns. Check. Johnson, a seventh-round rookie from a year ago, flashed a few times when called upon. In 2020, he enters training camp battling for the No. 2 gig opposite Adam Thielen. Minnesota invested a first-round pick in Justin Jefferson, so it’s only a matter of time before the rookie is in the lineup. Until then, which seriously may not even be this year, Johnson has a real shot at delivering.

It all comes down to how much one trusts Jefferson to acclimate to the pros and digest the playbook during this offseason. He had been placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list and has since been removed. Johnson isn’t going to win anyone a title, but there’s a hint of upside here. Monitor Jefferson’s development in camp.

Adam Humphries | Tennessee Titans | Flier | ADP: N/A

Remember him? In 2018, Humphries turned in a 76-catch season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and managed to find the end zone five times. Toss in 816 yards and all three stats were career bests. He translated that into a respectable payday with the Titans but never really looked comfortable in the offense. In Week 14, he suffered a high-ankle sprain and missed the rest of the regular season. In his second year with the Titans, Humphries should see the offense around him open up a bit. A.J. Brown will take a step forward and looks destined for WR1 status. The guy once presumed to be that in Corey Davis is likely out after 2020, so there’s no real incentive to force the ball his way.

Humphries played nearly 79 percent of his snaps from the slot last year, and the passing game ran at least three-wide sets a respectable 67 percent of the time, with 55 percent coming in a base three-receiver formation (seventh lowest). As second-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith tweaks his playbook after a season of learning the ropes, there’s room for growth in this area more than any other. Much like with the aforementioned Parris Campbell, there’s no reason to get overly excited about Humphries, but he’s more likely to see an uptick in work than remain stale or regress. Gamers could do worse on a late-round flier or in best-ball formats.

Hunter Renfrow | Las Vegas Raiders | Flier | ADP: 14:12

He finished WR60 as a rookie in 13 games last year after missing time with a broken rib that punctured a lung. When he came back to the field in Week 16, the former Clemson hero posted back-to-back 100-yard games with a score in each, landing seven and six passes, respectively, on 18 targets. That’s 35 percent of his season-long yardage in two contests, and his average yards per reception went from 11 to 16.1. Even though it was a small sample size, Renfrow was trending in the right direction in the month leading up to the injury. He saw his per-game averages for targets, catches and yardage all increase from the first eight weeks of the year.

Here’s where it gets dicey. Rookie receiver Henry Ruggs is poised to begin his career in the slot, which suggests Renfrow is out of a top-three role. The second-year receiver went from being one of my favorite sleeper targets to merely a flier, but he’s not without potential. Ruggs isn’t likely to stay in the slot forever, and there’s always the chance this was just “coach speak” anyway. Perhaps I’m being stubborn, but Renfrow is too talented to be completely shut out from having a regular role. Monitor the situation closely as the pair work in padded practices during training camp.

Tight ends

NEW — Jonnu Smith | Tennessee Titans | Sleeper | ADP: 13:11

Smith gets his shot to start without Delanie Walker in the picture for what will be Smith’s fourth NFL season. He has proven to be one of the most prolific tight ends after the catch, and the offense is starved for another weapon. The Titans have A.J. Brown as the top receiver and then it’s a guessing game. Smith is the most likely option to fill the void of being the second target for Ryan Tannehill, since Corey Davis has given us ample chances to see he’s not the guy. Adam Humphries, as mentioned above, is a flier, but the situation easily can go sideways.

Smith is proving to not only be a value buy at his position but has a puncher’s chance of emerging as this year’s top breakout fantasy tight end. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was a tight ends coach for this team as recently as 2018, and unless Darrynton Evans develops into a go-to pass-catching running back as a rookie, Smith is the obvious choice to see the second-most targets in what is admittedly a stunted passing attack. Think TE2 with serious upside.

Jace Sternberger | Green Bay Packers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

Feeling frisky? The departure of Jimmy Graham left a hole in the starting lineup that is expected to be filled by the second-year Sternberger. He was drafted in Round 3 last year and didn’t catch a pass until the playoffs, ultimately scoring a touchdown in the conference championship game as a reserve. Sternberger missed eight games during the season after suffering an ankle injury. In summation, he’s not exactly experienced. Sternberger was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, so keep tabs on his activation.

The Packers have longed for a tight end for years who can do damage in the passing game. The system employed by Matt LaFleur is friendly to the position, and Green Bay didn’t address its wide receivers in the draft, as many prognosticators (and probably Aaron Rodgers) had expected for a team that was one win away from the Super Bowl. Devin Funchess was brought in during free agency, but he’s far from a lock to contribute. Rookie tight end Josiah Deguara will play more of an H-back role and isn’t a true threat to Sternberger. Every so often a player comes from what seems like absolutely nowhere to become a household fantasy name, and if any tight end is positioned for such a leap this year, Sternberger is the guy.

Dalton Keene | New England Patriots | Flier | ADP: N/A

Rarely do rookie tight ends contribute anything of consequence in fantasy football. Rarely does it pay to second-guess Bill Belichick. As the Patriots forge ahead without Tom Brady slinging passes to the usual suspects, New England’s storied coach is expected to hand the keys over to Cam Newton. No one knows just what to expect after consecutive seasons with major ailments. At least he has found success working with tight ends in the past.

The rookie has a legit shot at being the primary fantasy tight end in a system that has lived and died by the position for years — in a system that doesn’t have a particularly strong receiving corps. A starter of 38 games at Virginia Tech in three years, Keene could be ready for a markedly successful debut season. And it won’t cost gamers more than a throwaway draft selection to go with a little bit of faith to find out.

Kickers

Matt Gay | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

It’s tough to understand why Gay isn’t being drafted in the top 16, according to ADP figures, after being the No. 6 fantasy kicker in 2019. The offense may not afforded him the 35 kicks he attempted last year, but he still registered 7.8 fantasy points a game while missing five extra points on 48 tries and connected on just 77.1 percent of his field goals (27-for-35). He missed six kicks from 40-plus, including three from greater than 50 yards. Gay missed only three kicks prior to the final three weeks of the year. It’s a little worrisome that two of those games were at home, and one was in Detroit’s climate-controlled confines. He went 0-for-3 in the season finale, so it’s fair to give him the benefit of the doubt and chalk it up to rookie jitters.

Defense/special teams

Cleveland Browns | Sleeper | ADP: N/A

Simply regaining its best defender in Myles Garrett after his 2019 suspension will make a world of difference. The Browns have considerable talent, even if they will be reliant on two rookies making a substantial impact in 2020, so this recommendation isn’t without risk. The defense is going to be faster because of it, too. Look for reasonable jumps in play from second-year linebacker Mack Wilson and cornerback Greedy Williams. While rostering a second defense is almost never worthwhile coming out of a draft, Cleveland is a fringe starting unit if you missed out on the safer options.