Tag: Fantasy Football

By now, fantasy football draft prep should be starting up, so it’s time to dig deep and figure out who you should focus on at each position … and who you should avoid whether it’s based on average draft position or other reasons.

That’s what this series of posts is meant to be. We started with running backs, covered wide receivers and now it’s on to quarterbacks, one of the deepest positions in fantasy. It’s worth noting: this is mostly a guide for non-superflex leagues.

Here’s how to approach the position at draft time, along with some sleepers and busts to remember:

Strategy

If you read my fantasy takes year to year, there’s a very obvious theme: taking quarterbacks high — even in two-quarterback leagues, and I’d say it’s different if you’re in a superflex league — is silly. Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes might be awesome once again but because the price is so high to pay to draft them, you’re better off waiting until much later to pick up a QB2-type with upside, which is what Jackson was last year, and look at how that turned out! There are a bunch of solid-to-great options once you get beyond the top 10 QBs or so, which is why I wait and wait and wait some more.

Sleepers

Daniel Jones, New York Giants

He ran for 279 yards in 13 games, and running QBs in fantasy have added value. Plus, his team will be playing from behind more (which means more passing volume) and he’ll have a full receiving corps healthy. Love the upside here.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

Yes, the offensive line is a concern, but I want to point out he wasn’t THAT bad last year. The yardage was there and I bet the touchdowns go back up. I’d take a flier at his price.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

It all went wrong last year, with Mayfield tossing 21 interceptions. But his supporting cast is still talented and still there. And then there’s the coaching change, which can serve as a re-set button. I’ll be drafting him as one of my QBs in the hopes for more of what we saw his rookie year.

Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars

I wish I could have done one of those blind statlines, but bet you couldn’t guess his numbers from last year if I asked you for them. So here you go: 3,271 yards through the air, 21 touchdowns, just 6 INTs and 344 yards on the ground. That’s really good! Soooo much value here.

Busts

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

I worry the rushing touchdowns (17 total in his first two seasons) aren’t sustainable and that the passing volume may not be there, and that his struggles with deep passes will catch up at some point.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The Packers run the ball more, which means less volume for Rodgers. Plus, he doesn’t run as much as he used to.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

It’s sort of the same as Rodgers: age + the team running the ball more. The last time he played nearly 15 games in 2018, he threw the fewest pass attempts of his career since 2005. The touchdowns might still be there, but the yardage might not be, and you’d be surprised how much that affects week-to-week value.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

Do you think he does that again? Me neither.

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Last year, we went over the case for and against the fantasy football draft strategy known as “Zero RB,” in which you target wide receivers and a top tight end before you even think about taking a running back.

The idea there is to lean on certainty — wide receivers get injured less and are usually more consistent week-to-week producers, while running backs could be first-rounders the first week of the season and then be out for the season the next. That means if you throw some darts late on upside RBs and nail a couple of them, plus one or two off waivers, you’re set for the year.

Personally, I’ve never tried Zero RB and don’t plan on trying it anytime soon. The problem I have is there are too many WR2-types who I like that could leap to WR1 levels. Tight end is less shallow than it used to be, and with running back, my strategy that’s worked involves taking two names early and a bunch of upside picks later on to fill out your bench later in drafts. In other words, you’re still taking shots with RBs you might target by going Zero RB.

In 2020, with so much uncertainty, unpredictability and just overall weirdness, I’ve seen some fantasy owners wondering if this is the year to try Zero RB. And here’s where I respond: nope.

Zero WR is a much better strategy than Zero RB

— Josh Mitchell (@Dynasty_Josh) August 15, 2020

It’s not like there’s MORE uncertainty with the running back position than ever before. The uncertainty lies with every single player who could miss games due to being put on the COVID-19 list. And yes, I know part of the strategy with Zero RB is that backup running backs produce more than backups at other positions when they get elevated to starting roles.

But I’ll repeat it again to make my point: everyone has the same risk in 2020, so don’t talk yourself into Zero RB just because you think this year will be different in some way.

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By now, fantasy football draft prep should be starting up, so it’s time to dig deep and figure out who you should focus on at each position … and who you should avoid whether it’s based on average draft position or other reasons.

That’s what this series of posts is meant to be. We started with running backs, and now it’s time for wide receivers, a much deeper position than RBs. That doesn’t mean you can completely avoid them for a while and draft WRs late.

Here’s how to approach the position at draft time, along with some sleepers and busts to remember:

Strategy

Look: you could draft Michael Thomas in the first round, or even Davante Adams, and you could be fine — Thomas is above Adams because of his targets, but you’re locking in week-to-week consistency.

But here’s the thing: what if you could wait a round and grab Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin or Kenny Golladay? And what if you even waited another round and Amari Cooper, A.J. Brown, or Allen Robinson is there?

The point? I’m probably waiting until round 3 to grab a wideout. The difference between Hopkins and Robinson may be pretty small, and I know there is even more value in the WR10-20 range as well.

Sleepers

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams

Brandin Cooks is gone and no one replaced him. Yes, Cooper Kupp will also get a boost, but Woods might get more red zone work to add on to last year’s awesome numbers (90 catches, 1,134 yards). You could get a WR1 at a WR2 price.

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

After a REALLY good rookie year, why is he being drafted so low? He can only go up from there!

WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys

Rookie CeeDee Lamb took away a ton of value from Gallup, but here’s my theory: in 2020, rookies could take longer than usual to get acclimated with no OTAs, no preseason games and changes in camp. So I’ll take a chance on him approaching similar numbers to last year’s 1,107 yards and six scores.

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

He’s added weight, the Ravens’ passing game could improve in 2020 and he’s in his second year. What’s not to like?

Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins

DeVante Parker is the WR1, but the receiver depth chart in Miami doesn’t include two players — Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns — who opted out. A HUGE opportunity for the receiver who looked like a future star for eight games last year.

Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders

There’s some buzz surrounding Edwards on a team looking for a No. 1 receiver. Henry Ruggs III may need some time before making an impact, and Edwards could move ahead of Hunter Renfrow. He’s an extremely deep sleeper to keep an eye on.

Busts

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I worry about Tom Brady looking his way deep — he might feel more comfortable throwing to Godwin underneath and Rob Gronkowski over the middle. So I’m not drafting him as a WR1, which is how he’s being viewed.

WR Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings

Too many concerns: age, the Vikings going run-heavy, and the fact the Vikes traded Stefon Diggs. Remember what happened to JuJu Smith-Schuster last year when he didn’t have another receiver to take away attention? That’s my biggest worry here.

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

The breakout we all thought could happen did. But now there’s Jerry Jeudy, Year 2 of Noah Fant and Melvin Gordon who could all catch passes. Temper your expectations.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

I worry about the change at quarterback now that Philip Rivers is in Indy.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen will be throwing him deep balls, and we know Allen’s accuracy on long passes isn’t great.

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