Tag: fantasy-football-week-11

As we inch closer to the winter season, we are forced to start weighing weather into our start/sit decisions. There are four games being played outdoors out east and a game being played outside in Denver. The NFL even moved the Cleveland-Buffalo game to a neutral site because of an impending snowpocalypse.

The key thing to remember is that impact winds, rain, snow, and/or freezing rain will negatively affect mediocre QBs and some WRs (particularly field-stretching WRs). Still, elite QBs (particularly those who play in these environments regularly) will only see a slight reduction in value. Also remember, if the weather gets too sloppy it should benefit defenses, RBs, and potentially TEs.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Sunday Night

KANSAS CITY @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Patrick Mahomes (QB1) gets the benefit of facing the softest defense on this slate. Oh yeah, Mahomes is actually pretty good, too. Just Sharpie him in for 350-3.

The Chiefs’ pass defense has improved in recent weeks. Still, they can be beaten by vertical-threat WRs. That is all the Chargers have had healthy for the last month. This will keep Justin Herbert (QB2) as the second-best option here and a great pivot from the chalky Mahomes.

The three-headed RB monster that KC has been utilizing watched one of its heads get guillotined last week. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB7) only saw two targets and ended up with zero counting stats. This is amazing because Jerick McKinnon (RB6) was a true game-time decision with three different maladies carried into Sunday morning. Isiah Pacheco (RB3) drew the start and looked very good. At this point, the job is his to lose. Of course, Andy Reid may not feature the running game as much this week. Consider Pacheco an RB2 option and McKinnon as a flex play. After the last two games, I don’t think you can reliably start CEH unless someone gets injured in practice.

The Chargers backfield is much less confusing. It is 100 percent Austin Ekeler (RB2). He should be one of the two backs you consider at RB1 this week. Frankly, I’d just use both him and Christian McCaffrey. Isaiah Spiller (RB8) has usurped Sony Michel (RB11) as the primary backup to Ekeler. Spiller is usable in Showdown and Michel can be ignored.

Injuries to both Mecole Hardman (abdomen – IR) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR4 – concussion) leave the Chiefs shorthanded out wide.  JuJu would earn WR2 consideration if he can return. With Hardman out, Kadarius Toney (WR9) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR10) each have WR2 projections. Even with the injuries, Skyy Moore (WR13) didn’t see an uptick in targets. You cannot trust him here. I’d rather use Justin Watson (WR17) as he could be a TD-dependent punt play.

Once again we are presented with a Chargers’ WRs room that will feature multiple questionable tags. Mike Williams (WR3 – ankle) and Keenan Allen (WR6 – hamstring) are both practicing this week and each would be a huge Band-Aid to the passing game. Unfortunately, both have injuries that could be easily aggravated in-game. Unless they are full participants Friday, I will not feel good about starting them. If they both remain out, Joshua Palmer (WR7) remains a must-start WR2. Even if they play, consider him at WR3. DeAndre Carter (WR11) will have WR3 value if Allen is out. Michael Bandy (WR12) was riding a two-game success streak prior to his SNF goose egg. I’ll give him one more shot as punt flex.

Travis Kelce (TE1) is a stud. He also is expensive. If Smith-Schuster is out, I’ll consider him, but otherwise I’ll likely opt for a cheaper option. Both Jody Fortson (TE7) and Noah Gray (TE6) can be ignored outside of Showdown.

Gerald Everett (groin – TE3) has returned to usefulness with all of the WR injuries. His price, and the matchup, will make him a great pivot from the higher-priced options if he takes the field. Should Everett miss this game, Tre’ McKitty (TE5) will get the start. Volume alone could put him into play.

Monday Night

SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA

In Week 10, Jimmy Garoppolo (QB3) battled with Justin Herbert for the QB2 and QB3 slots in primetime. They get to repeat that battle this week, just not directly against each other. Herbert’s matchup is more appealing once again, but Garoppolo could be a pivot.

Kyler Murray (QB4 – hamstring) missed Week 10 with an injury. His replacement, Colt McCoy (QB5 – lower body) left that game with an injury of his own. This left the Cardinals with Trace McSorley (QB6) to finish the game. A return from Murray would seriously help this offense. Unfortunately, a running QB with a hamstring injury concerns me. Neither McCoy nor McSorley should approach your lineup card. Heck, I’d rather start McDonald (as in Ronald) than either of those clowns.

Christian McCaffrey (RB1) didn’t have the monster game that I expected last week. It particularly stunk to watch him get boxed up inside the 5-yard line multiple times. Multi-function RBs have lambasted Arizona this season, including McCaffrey, back in Week 4, with Carolina. So, I’m still trusting CMC here. Elijah Mitchell (RB5) returned in Week 10, and he immediately drew a chunk of the carries. His presence should be just to spell McCaffrey, but he was used akin to Tony Pollard. This sort of usage would keep him in play as a punt RB2.

The lack of a capable QB last week led Arizona to give James Conner (RB4) a healthy dose of touches. He scored twice, but his efficiency was once again pathetic. Facing San Fran will not improve his YPC average. The best you can hope for here is that he gets a short TD. Eno Benjamin was held off the stat sheet in Week 10. He was then removed from the active roster on Monday morning. This opens the backup role for Keaontay Ingram (RB9). The matchup is rotten, and he won’t see enough touches to have any value.

For a second-straight week, Deebo Samuel (WR1) is one of the top WRs on this slate. With so much money devoted to RB, I will probably fade him. Opposing WR1s have actually struggled against Arizona anyways. This puts Brandon Aiyuk (WR5) into my WR1/WR2 range. Neither Jauan Jennings (WR16) nor Ray-Ray McCloud (WR19) does enough to draw interest outside of Showdown. In a less neutral situation, I might throw a dart at one of them, but there isn’t enough upside there for me.

It didn’t matter who was under center as DeAndre Hopkins (WR2) and Rondale Moore (WR8) both showed out in Week 10. Hopkins is the better threat to score, so he gets WR1 consideration. Moore could be used at WR2 if you don’t use Hopkins. Each should see more targets with Zach Ertz out for the season. Robbie Anderson (WR14) is technically the WR3 on this roster right now. He has done jack squat since Arizona acquired him. A.J. Green (WR15) scored last week, but his usage has been scarce as well. He is a Showdown play, at best. Greg Dortch (WR18) had a few very good games earlier this year. Since Hopkins returned, he has been a ghost.

The weapon volume in San Fran may limit George Kittle‘s (TE2) personal stat line. Still, he is a beast when the Niners get him the ball, so consider him to save costs from Travis Kelce. It helps that he is facing an Arizona defense that ignores the position.

Zach Ertz (knee) left last week’s game on a cart. He will miss the rest of the season with the injury. This leaves Trey McBride (TE4) as a sneaky sleeper play. He was highly lauded among this draft class and has the tools to succeed, given the opportunity. I could easily see building a double-TE lineup featuring him.

The Main Slate: recommended DFS lineups

DK Lineup: QB Joe Burrow ($6.8k), RB Saquon Barkley ($8.9k), RB Antonio Gibson ($5.6k), WR Tee Higgins ($7.1k), WR Darnell Mooney ($5.4k), WR Laviska Shenault Jr. ($3.7k), TE Greg Dulcich ($3.8k), FLEX Devin Singletary ($5.8k), DST New York Jets ($2.8k)

FD Lineup: QB Joe Burrow ($8.3k), RB Saquon Barkley ($9.7k), RB Antonio Gibson ($6.6k), WR Tee Higgins ($7.6k), WR Tyler Boyd ($6.8k), WR Laviska Shenault ($5.3k), TE Greg Dulcich ($5.5k), FLEX Devin Singletary ($6.4k), DST Chicago Bears ($3.7k)

FB Lineup: QB Patrick Mahomes ($7.4k), RB Saquon Barkley ($7.3k), RB D’Onta Foreman ($5.2k), WR Tyler Boyd ($5.6k), WR Mecole Hardman ($4.2k), WR Joshua Palmer ($4.6k), TE Cole Kmet ($3.8k), FLEX Travis Kelce ($6.6k), FLEX Devin Singletary ($5.2k)

Quarterback

Weekly strategy –Watch the weather reports, but I’m looking all the way down to Justin Fields, Joe Burrow, or Dak Prescott. Also, consider Jared Goff or Daniel Jones against each other.  Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills are both bottom-of-the-barrel punt options.

Fantasy Four-pack

Joe Burrow, Bengals @ PIT
($6,800 DK, $8,300 FD) Pittsburgh has struggled with quality QBs all year, including Burrow back in Week 1. Another 300-2 performance is due here, with both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd getting in on the fun.

Justin Fields, Bears @ ATL
($7,600 DK, $8,700 FD) Fields has been electric over the last four weeks. How does he get rewarded? The NFL gives him a matchup against a team that is rotten against both the run and the pass. This could get ugly fast for Atlanta as they have not faced a running QB yet this year.

Josh Allen, Bills vs. CLE (in Detroit) ($8,500 DK, $9,200 FD) The NFL gave the Bills offense a slight boost by moving the game out of the snowpocalypse and into a domed stadium. With the weather a nonfactor, Allen should put up his usual elite numbers against a soft defense. Plus, remember, Cleveland is bad against the run, too. We could see Allen score on the ground this week as well.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles @ IND
($8,200 DK, $8,800 FD) Hurts is coming off his first loss. He will also be without at least one of his top-three weapons. Meanwhile, Indy played hard for their new coach last week. Of course, that was against a discombobulated Raiders offense. This game will be played indoors (so no potential weather issues). Plus, Hurts can get it done even if he doesn’t have to throw the ball.

DFS Sleepers

Daniel Jones, Giants vs. DET
($5,700 DK, $7,800 FD) Jones is not an elite QB. Still, he does well enough against the poor competition to keep himself relevant. Detroit is an equal-opportunity failure when it comes to dealing with QBs. They are the worst in the league against the pass, and they have been abused by mobile QBs all season (including a monster game by Justin Fields last week. Jones will score both a passing and rushing TD this week with roughly 50 yards rushing on top of his passing stats.

Davis Mills, Texans vs. WAS
($5,200 DK, $6,500 FD) Houston may be en route to a first-round QB pick next season, but Mills is at least producing reasonable fantasy lines for the time being. This includes two 300-plus-yard passing games and two multiple-TD games over their last four contests, so 250-2 is certainly in play once again here.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – It is another cakewalk for Saquon Barkley this week. Lock him in as your RB1. Nick Chubb or Dalvin Cook could make nice pivots. Chubb could be especially valuable if the weather is horrific in Buffalo. David Montgomery will dominate this week with Khalil Herbert out. You should probably use him, D’Onta Foreman, one of the Commanders, or one of the Falcons at RB2. With the potential weather concerns in Buffalo, consider Devin Singletary or Kareem Hunt at flex.

Fantasy Four-pack

Saquon Barkley,  Giants vs. DET
($8,900 DK, $9,700 FD) This matchup isn’t as sweet as last week’s cream puff. It still is a great opportunity for a slate-breaking performance. Detroit has struggled mightily against multipurpose backs, like Barkley, all year. Expect 150 combo yards and at least one score here.

Nick Chubb, Browns @ BUF (in Detroit)
($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD) Who needs snow? Chubb will just plow through a soft Buffalo run defense instead. Over their last three games, Buffalo has allowed opposing RBs to rack up 544 total yards and four total TDs. Chalk up two scores for Chubb this week.

Dalvin Cook, Vikings vs. DAL ($8,000 DK, $8,300 FD) Passing against Dallas is tough. Fortunately, they are not as good against the run. Over the last three games, Dallas is allowing a league sixth-worst 5.3 YPC. The Vikings should feature Cook more this week. Expect a total of 125 combo yards and a score.

David Montgomery, Bears @ ATL
($6,100 DK, $6,200 FD) With Khalil Herbert (hip – IR) out, expect Montgomery to revert to his early season lead-back role with well over 100 total yards and a touchdown. Only four teams are allowing more rushing TDs this season than Atlanta. This includes allowing six over the last three games.

DFS Sleepers

Devin Singletary, Bills vs. CLE (in Detroit)
($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD) Cleveland has allowed 12 total TDs to opposing RBs over their last six games. Last week, Singletary scored a pair of TDs. This was double his total for the full season coming in. He’ll add another here.

Antonio Gibson, Commanders @ HOU ($5,600 DK, $6,600 FD) Brian Robinson Jr. outproduced Gibson last week. They also both scored. Against Houston, they will both score again. Gibson has seen far more work in the passing game than Robinson, and Gibson has scored in three of his last four games. This makes him a slightly safer play.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy –  This looks to be the week to spend down here. CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tee Higgins are the only high-priced options I trust. Tyler Boyd would be an obvious pivot from Higgins. DeVonta Smith could also get pivot love if A.J. Brown (ankle) remains limited. At WR2, I like Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Wan’Dale Robinson, one of the Bears, or one of the Texans. At WR3, roll out one of the Panthers’ or Colts’ subordinate WRs. You could also do the revenge-game punt with Kenny Golladay.

Fantasy Four-pack

Tee Higgins, Bengals @ PIT ($7,100 DK, $7,600 FD) Chris Olave, and Mike Evans are the only WR1s to not absolutely wreck this defense. Back in Week 1, Ja’Marr Chase went absolutely ham against them. This week, that 10-129-1 line will fall to Higgins barring a weather barrage.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys @ MIN
($7,500 DK, $8,100 FD) Over their last four contests, Minnesota has allowed eight double-digit PPR WRs. This includes allowing three of the last four WR1s to post 12 catches and at least 128 yards. Meanwhile, Lamb has been on fire since Michael Gallup‘s return, including three TDs over the last two games. 

A.J. Brown, Eagles @ IND
($8,000 DK, $8,400 FD) Brown suffered a rolled-up ankle in Week 10 limiting his final line. Prior to that, Brown had been on a tear, scoring five times over his prior three games. Indy ranks high among the best at limiting WRs, but a deeper dive shows that outside alpha WRs have been solid all year against them. Heck, even the corpse of what was Robert Woods scored on them in Week 4. Watch his practice status this weekend, but I expect him out there.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions @ NYG
($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD) I must admit, I preferred St. Brown when his price was in the mid $6k range. Still, you knew the price increase would happen following his return from injury. Six of the last eight WR1s to face the Giants have either scored and/or topped 90 receiving yards. St. Brown could achieve both here.

DFS Sleepers

Parris Campbell, Colts vs. PHI
($4,300 DK, $5,800 FD) Prior to last week, Philly had looked impenetrable against the pass. Still, they had allowed multiple fantasy-relevant games to non-WR1s. Michael Pittman Jr. is the clear WR1 for Indy, so he may struggle here, but look for Campbell to succeed. Over the last three games that Matt Ryan has started, Campbell is averaging 8-68-1 on 11 targets per game.

Darnell Mooney, Bears @ ATL
($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD) Atlanta ranks dead last against the pass. Only two WR1s have not blown up against them this season. Plus, Mooney has been trending upwards, ranking 13th in receiving yards, since Week 4.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Pray that no more TEs get lost to season-ending injuries this week. But seriously, T.J. Hockenson and Cole Kmet are the obvious plays. You can also consider Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee, or Greg Dulcich. David Njoku (ankle) could also be in play if he returns from his injury. The other player to keep an eye on is Isaiah Likely. He could hit 3x value easily if Mark Andrews (shoulder) is limited or out again. If you are looking at punting the position this week use Juwan Johnson or Tanner Hudson.

Fantasy Four-pack

T.J. Hockenson, Vikings vs. DAL
($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD) In two games with his new team, Hockenson has posted 16-115 on 19 targets. The only thing he hasn’t done is get into the end zone. That will change this week as he is finally fully up to snuff on the Vikings’ playbook.

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. CAR
($6,800 DK, $7,700 FD) Coming off of the bye, Andrews should be closer to 100 percent, but he has still been somewhat limited in practice. Still, at this price, and coming off of the injury, he should have low ownership. This is perfect, because Andrews can break a slate on any given Sunday. Of course, if he is out, fire up Isaiah Likely.

Tyler Higbee, Rams @ NO
($4,000 DK, $6,200 FD) Higbee is the pass-catcher most likely to absorb a large number of Cooper Kupp‘s vacated targets. He also may be the only receiving threat that Matthew Stafford trusts out there.

Cole Kmet, Bears @ ATL ($4,100 DK, $5,700 FD) Over the last three weeks, no player in the NFL has scored more TDs than Kmet. Meanwhile, Atlanta hasn’t allowed a TE to score since Week 3. Unfortunately for them, every non-Carolina TE to face them has put up a big yardage and/or reception line. 

DFS Sleepers

Juwan Johnson, Saints vs. LAR
($3,100 DK, $5,100 FD) Johnson is basically a dollar store equivalent of Marques Colston. He is big and physical and can play both at TE and as a WR. He also has found a nose for the end zone, scoring four times in his last four games. At this price, the TD hits his 3x DK value, any yardage is cake.

Tanner Hudson, Giants vs. DET ($2,900 DK, $4,400 FD) The Lions have allowed an average of 5.4-64 to the position this season to go along with seven TDs against, including three in the last three games. Hudson has not scored yet, but he does have six catches on eight targets in the two games since Daniel Bellinger‘s (eye) injury.