2019 Cheez-It Bowl Game Preview: Keys To An Air Force Win vs. Washington State

The Falcons take on the Washington State Cougars in what should be one of the year’s most entertaining bowl games.

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2019 Cheez-It Bowl Game Preview: Keys to an Air Force Win vs. Washington State


Can Air Force ground the Air Raid?


Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

A bowl game with true parity.

2019 CHEEZ-IT BOWL: Washington State Cougars (6-6, 3-6 Pac-12) vs. Air Force Falcons (10-2, 7-1 Mountain West)

WHEN: Friday, December 27, 2019 — 8:15 PM MT/7:15 PM PT

WHERE: Chase Field; Phoenix, Arizona (48,686)

PAYOUT: $1,625,550 per team

TV: ESPN

STREAMING: You can get a free seven-day trial of FuboTV by clicking here.

RADIO: The Air Force broadcast can be found in and around Colorado Springs on 740 AM (KVOR), on 104.3 FM in Denver, and elsewhere on the American Forces Network. The Washington State broadcast can be found throughout the Pacific Northwest on the affiliates of the Washington State Sports Network, which includes flagships 104.3 FM (KHTR) and 920 AM (KXLY) in Pullman and Spokane, respectively.

Alternatively, the radio broadcast can be streamed online via TuneIn.

SERIES RECORD: This is the first meeting between Air Force and Washington State.

WEBSITES: GoAirForceFalcons.com, the official Air Force athletics website | WSUCougars.com, the official Washington State athletics website

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | Washington State

ODDS (via OddsShark): Air Force -3

SP+ PROJECTION: Washington State by 0.2 (50% win probability)

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force by 9.7

As the sun is about to set on another college football season, there is still one last mission in front of the Falcons: Defeat the Washington State Cougars. For Air Force to reach the 11-win mark for the first time (they have won 10 and 12 in a season), they must be prepared to defend the pass, early and often.

Likewise, if Wazzu would like to end the 2019 campaign with a winning record, they had better be prepared to not only defend the run, but remain disciplined at all levels of their defense.

With such contrasting styles of play, it’s understandable why the Cheez-It Bowl has garnered so much attention. Whatever your appetite is for offense, it will be on the menu.

Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

1. Pass Efficiency > Pass Yards

It is well documented that essentially anytime you play against a Mike Leach-coached team, your secondary will be tested. Facing the top passing offense in the country, the Falcon secondary will have to be sharp. Healthy disruption of Anthony Gordon’s pocket by all-conference standouts Mosese Fifita, Kyle Johnson and Demonte Meeks will go a long way. And, oh yeah, there is also that Jordan Jackson fellow.

It’s really important to understand, too, that the Cougars pass game isn’t the only one that will be on display Friday. As accomplished as their offense is, Air Force showcases the most efficient passing offense in the country. Consider that they will match up against a Cougar pass defense which is one of the worst (statistically) in all of FBS.

And in case you’re wondering, the Falcon defense ranks in the top 40 when it comes to stopping the pass. It’s prudent to also point out that the Air Force ranks 16th in overall defense. Both are monumental strides from last year.

2. Do What You Do

I know we just exhausted some effort in outlining the importance of Air Force’s offensive pass efficiency. But the reality is that success is widely predicated on the success of their ground attack. That’s their bread and butter, if you will.

The general nature and success of the Falcon football team goes as the run game does. It can chew up clock, limiting possessions for the opposing offense. All the while, it can completely wear down and outright demoralize the defense.

This is who Air Force is. They showcase the third-most productive rushing attack in the country. If you haven’t watched this team play, don’t expect to see straight designed pass plays to support that highly efficient passing offense. What you can expect is to see a physically and mentally fatigued defense from the running attack have a lapse a few times through the game, which the Falcons have made a living on exposing with the big pass play.

3. Think Hawai’i

Now, I realize that the run-and-shoot offense of Hawai’i is not the same as the Air Raid that Wazzu deploys. However, by volume of passes they will have to defend, it’s a pretty fair benchmark. And even though Cole McDonald racked up over 400 yards, it was in a losing effort. More than that, it was in a completely dominant Air Force win.

The Falcon defense forced two turnovers, one of which being one of the highlights of the NCAA season in another Zane Lewis 99 yard INT returned for a touchdown. Air Force doesn’t have to have a defensive score to win (though it certainly would help), they just need to stay the course and impose their will offensively.

The first read (Fullback Dive) is the catalyst to the Triple Option offense. When, that aspect of the attack is going, it makes for a very long day for the defense. From there, the Falcons can unleash a litany of weapons. Get the dive going, get the offense going.

Prediction

Like many, I am really excited to see how these contrasting styles play out. Wazzu has had extra time to prepare for the triple option, which should certainly be an advantage over conventional prep time.

I believe that the Falcons defense could and may surrender another 400 yard passing game. And frankly, that may be fine based on how they want to dictate the game. The defense could allow this type of yardage and still have a good showing, ask Nick Rolovich.

In the end, D.J. Hammond III is in command of a lethal offensive attack. The Coug’s are and I believe will be a formidable opponent for the Falcons on Friday. But I don’t think Washington State is going to be able to have any sustained success at staving off a relentless assault from the Hammond led offense.

Air Force earns their first 11-win season.

Air Force 35- Washington State 28

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Bucs favored at home in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers end their season Sunday at home against the Atlanta Falcons, and are favored to come out as victors.

With a win Sunday in Week 17 against the Atlanta Falcons, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would finish the season 8-8, something that seemed impossible just a month ago when they were 3-7.

The Buccaneers entered 2019 having gone 5-11 the past two seasons, and after that slow start, it seemed like another 5-11 season was in the books. But, this team has turned it around over the past month, winning four-straight games prior to Saturday’s loss to the Houston Texans.

In that game, Tampa Bay was without their top two receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, so quarterback Jameis Winston, who is nursing a fractured thumb, had to rely on a cast of inexperienced receivers. The results were what you’d expect as the Bucs quarterback threw four interceptions, including another pick-six.

Despite the loss, however, and absence of playmakers, the Bucs opened as -1.5 point favorites at home against the 6-9 Falcons. Tampa Bay kicked off their four-game winning-streak by beating Atlanta on the road back in Week 12.

While the Bucs have been a hard team to bet this year against the spread, I’d feel good about their chances in this game. Winston is going for history Sunday, and finishing 8-8 would do wonders for this team’s confidence heading into the offseason.

Atlanta, meanwhile, will have to deal with the potential firing of head coach Dan Quinn following Sunday’s game, so big changes could be ahead for this Falcons team. A win over the Bucs likely won’t affect Quinn’s future one way or the other, so I feel Tampa Bay has more to gain from this game.

[Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.]

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Bowl Season: Mountain West Conference Simulated Results

A simulation run using updated rosters for the EA Sports NCAA 14 Football game was done to see how the Mountain West did this Bowl Year.

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How did the MWC fair this Bowl Season?


Thanks to the NCAA 14 Football Game- We have all the Bowl Insights!


Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Earlier this fall, we covered how the NCAA Football Game Dynasty by EA Sports was still alive and well, even after production of the game stopped in 2014. If you missed it, take a look here.

Using the newly updated rosters for every team on the game, we were able to create real simulation results based on these 2019 teams. We matched-up every team in the Mountain West with their 2019/2020 Bowl Opponent, using the actual locations and players. The games were completely simulated with no user interaction.

Let’s go Bowl by Bowl and see how things shook out!

FRISCO BOWL, DEC. 20: UTAH STATE VS. KENT STATE

If the simulation is any indicator, folks who take in the Frisco Bowl are in for a treat. Jordan Love pulls a George Costanza, and leaves the Aggies on a high note (both puns intended) racking up over 300 yards passing to edge Kent State by three, with a 31-28 victory.

The Utah State defense also came up big holding the Golden Flash to 40% in the Red Zone and forcing two turnovers.

NEW MEXICO BOWL, DEC. 21: SAN DIEGO STATE VS. CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Next up is the New Mexico Bowl which every Aztec fan would be thrilled to have the simulated results. The folks from Mt. Pleasant, Michigan may take umbrage with the notion of San Diego State racking up 41 points though.

I don’t question the Aztecs ability to pound the ball on the ground like the results reflect, behind a strong performance from Juwan Washington. But I do have to wonder what happened to ignite a 41 – 10 drubbing.

LAS VEGAS BOWL, DEC. 21: BOISE STATE VS. WASHINGTON

The kings of the (Mountain) West got reacquainted with their old coach, in most inhospitable fashion. Despite featuring the games most highly rated player in the MWC, Curtis Weaver, it wasn’t enough to knock off the Huskies.

I’m sure Jacob Eason of Washington would be very happy to showcase a near 400 yard passing performance in front of the scouts to increase his draft stock. Mountain West Wire’s resident Bronco, Raj may want to protest the results of this 13 point defeat.

Studs and duds from 49ers tough loss to Atlanta

Who was good and who wasn’t in the 49ers’ loss to the Falcons?

The good news coming out of Sunday is the 49ers clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2013. The bad news is that with their loss against the Falcons, the 49ers dropped to the No. 5 seed in the NFC, going from home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a first-round bye, to a road game in the wild card round.

The 49ers were missing several key pieces on defense and it showed, especially late in the game. Here are the studs and duds from their upset 29-22 loss to Atlanta:

Stud: TE George Kittle

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Kittle followed his game-winning play last week with a monster performance. He posted a career-high 13 receptions for 134 yards. The 134 receiving yards accounted for 67 percent of Jimmy Garoppolo’s 200 passing yards. Garoppolo also targeted the tight end on 17 of his 34 throws. Kittle was the largest part of the 49ers’ offense on Sunday, and without him the game would have been nowhere near as close as it was. The 49ers are used to Kittle being an important piece, but he can’t continue as their lone receiving threat if they’re going to make a run in the postseason.

49ers vs. Falcons: 3 things that stood out in the 2nd quarter

It’s been a tight one in Santa Clara with Atlanta scoring ten points in the second quarter.

A Robbie Gould field goal at the end of the second quarter tied the 49ers and Falcons at 10 heading into halftime.

Here’s what stood out in the second quarter:

The best drive of the 49ers season

While the drive started in the first quarter, the 49ers were able to finish a 21-play, 88-yard drive in the second quarter. The drive was the longest by any team in the NFL this season, and was finished off by Raheem Mostert’s fourth rushing touchdown in as many weeks. The 49ers were able to convert on three third downs and a fourth down on the drive.

The Moseley-Jones matchup could be a problem

Atlanta responded to the 49ers’ 21-play scoring drive with a 10-play scoring drive of their own thanks to Julio Jones. Jones was targeted four times with four receptions for 49 yards with a touchdown. Of those four targets, Emmanuel Moseley was the man on Jones on both a 28-yard reception and the touchdown.

Atlanta containing the 49ers pass rush with quick passes

After a first quarter of making Matt Ryan uncomfortable in the pocket, Atlanta adjusted in the second quarter with quick passes and the 49ers have struggled. The Falcons have put an emphasis on getting the ball out quick, specifically to Jones and it’s negated the pass rush. The 49ers will either have to contain Jones or get to Ryan quicker to get back on track.

49ers vs. Falcons: 3 things that stood out in 1st quarter

The defense looked solid to start while the offense was held to a three-and-out on their first drive.

The 49ers defense looked solid to start Sunday’s game while the offense was held to a three-and-out on their first drive. However, the 49ers were able to end the first quarter with the ball in Atlanta territory.

The first quarter didn’t offer much as the 49ers and Falcons finished tied at zero. Here are the three things that stood out:

Strong first series from Marcell Harris

Harris struggled last week in New Orleans, but looked good on the Falcons’ first drive Sunday. On the second play of the drive, Matt Ryan hit Kenjon Barner on a screen and Harris made a nice tackle to hold the gain to four. The Falcons then had a third-and-4 at their own-41 when Ryan threw a pass intended for tight end Austin Hooper that Harris broke up. With the lack of depth on the defense, Harris’ first drive is encouraging for the 49ers.

Constant pressure on Ryan

The skill gap between the 49ers’ defensive line and the Falcons offensive line was on display in the first quarter. While the 49ers weren’t able to get to Ryan for a sack, they’ve been able to keep him uncomfortable in the pocket and force him to make quick throws. At some point the 49ers should be able to get to Ryan, but what they’ve shown in the first quarter is a good sign.

Playing aggressive early

After a three-and-out on their first drive, the 49ers defense was able to get the ball into Atlanta territory on their second. They faced a fourth-and-1 at the Atlanta 36-yard-line. Instead of attempting a 54-yard field goal, Kyle Shanahan elected to go for it,  drawing up a pass play for George Kittle who was able to gain five and a first down. The early aggressive call could be sign of things to come and how Shanahan calls the game.

First Look at The Cheez-It Bowl: Air Force vs. Washington State

A Bowl of True Parody No Bowl features more contrasting styles than the Cheez-It Bowl Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire Who: Washington State Cougars vs. Air Force Falcons When: Saturday, December 27, 2019 (8:30 p.m. MT) Location: Phoenix, Arizona …

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A Bowl of True Parody


No Bowl features more contrasting styles than the Cheez-It Bowl


Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

Who: Washington State Cougars vs. Air Force Falcons

When: Saturday, December 27, 2019 (8:30 p.m. MT)

Location: Phoenix, Arizona

Stadium: Chase Field (seating capacity 48,686)

Payout: $1,625,550 per team 

How We Got Here

After back to back disappointing seasons which saw Air Force miss the Bowl season in 2017 and 2018, the Falcons rebounded in grand fashion in 2019. Air Force won a total of 10 games the previous two seasons combined, before matching that win total this season and posting a 7-1 conference record.

The Coug’s on the other hand started the season off strong at 3-0, before losing a game to UCLA in spectacular fashion. This was a game which they held a 35-17 lead to start the second half, scored 63 points and still lost the game. This was emblematic of Wazzu’s season this year, which they concluded with a 6-6 record.

Meet the Competitors

The Washington State Cougars compete out of the Pac-12 Conference’s North Division. They are coached by one of the most creative offensive minds in all of football, Mike Leach. This is a team that isn’t just entertaining because of their stat stuffing, air-raid offense. The Cougars have finally found consistent success since landing Leach, earning Bowl invitations in six of his seven years in Pullman.

The United States Air Force Academy Falcons play in the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference. Air Force, like the other military Academies are known for running the triple option offense, which in practice is as opposite their foes in this Bowl match-up as could be. While the Falcons may have been absent the Bowl season the previous two years, under Troy Calhoun, they have earned Bowl invitations in 10 of his 13 seasons as head coach.

National Treasures

This game has all the makings of an absolute classic with the contrasting styles and each teams ability to score. But we can talk more about that in the preview, closer to the game. What can’t be overstated is how this game features two of the best coaches on the West Coast.

And this Bowl also features two of the quirkiest coaches to ever adorn the whistles. Reporters and pundits alike have to be salivating at the potential sound bytes that will emanate from Leach and Calhoun.

History

Interestingly enough, these two teams have never faced each other, so there is no historical context. The Falcons did however face one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history, Case Keenum and the Houston Cougars in back to back Bowl games, in 2008 and 2009.

This was during Kevin Sumlin’s “hay day” as a coach, where his offenses were racking up yards and points at a torrent pace. Air Force split the two games, losing one and winning the other. Air Force also faced the Jared Goff led air raid attack for the Cal Golden Bears back in 2015, and it didn’t go so well.

All of this to say, even though they may have never played Wazzu, or do not face a true air raid passing offense on a regular basis, they have experienced it in the Calhoun era. And they can certainly expect another dose of it in Arizona.

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Air Force Football: Players Cases for All Conference Recognition

10 Wins Meant Great Players There are a lot of Falcons worthy of All Conference Team, but who will make it? Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire With the regular season in the books, I want to take a little time to reflect on the success that the Falcon …

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10 Wins Meant Great Players


There are a lot of Falcons worthy of All Conference Team, but who will make it?


Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

With the regular season in the books, I want to take a little time to reflect on the success that the Falcon team experienced this season, before we gear up for Bowl season. And for as great of a TEAM as they were this year, I want to focus specifically on what were some special performances by some outstanding football players.

Before Bowl matchups will be announced for 60+ teams in about a week nationally, the Mountain West Conference will recognize the leagues top performers by announcing the ‘All Mountain West Conference Team’. With that, I submit to you, some Air Force Football players worthy of All-Conference Consideration.

All Conference Considers on Offense

DONALD HAMMOND II (First Team All-MWC)

Its easy to become a prisoner of the moment. Donald Hammond has been nothing short of spectacular in the recent weeks, particularly in a performance for the ages against New Mexico. But to point to this small portion of the season would be an injustice to this young man.

Hammond didn’t have anything handed to him, as he had to beat out competition in spring and fall camp to earn the starting spot on the depth chart. Isaiah Sanders has proven to be a capable quarterback, the fact that (injuries aside) Hammond’s performance has kept him off the field is a real testament to just how good he has been.

But take a step back and look at things from 10,000 feet and you can’t help to acknowledge just how special this talent is. Were watching what may be the most dangerous passing quarterback that Air Force has had in some time. And I don’t mean this in a “he’s great for an Academy quarterback” kind of way.

He. Can Ball. Period.

But once you get lost in the gaudy numbers that Hammond has put up throwing the ball, you quickly can forget that he ran for 11 touchdowns on just under 500 yards. He should be acknowledged more nationally as the true dual threat passer that he is.

Geraud Sanders (First or Second Team All-MWC)

Usually when a player leads the country in any significant statistic, they garner more national attention. While that may not be the case for Geraud Sanders, its as unfortunate as the fate defensive backs have met when facing him.

Sanders doesn’t just lead the conference in yards per reception, he leads the country. He is also top five in the conference in touchdown receptions to go with nearly 750 yards receiving.

Like many, I would love to see what this guy could do on a more conventional passing team, just on pure volume of opportunities. Then again, thanks to changes made recently allowing Military Academy Athletes to turn pro, that may come to fruition in a professional capacity.

The Offensive Line (First, Second and Honorable Mention All MWC Team)

The Air Force offense has been very good this year. At just under 35 points per game in an offense that (supposedly) grinds clock limiting team possessions, the Falcons were 3rd in points per game in the Mountain West.

The reason that the Air Force offense was so successful was in large part because it was multiple- and that is a testament to the offensive line. This unit helped pave the way for an offense that finished second in yards per play, only behind Hawai’i, and once again led the conference in rush yards.

One of the easiest ways to point to this groups recognition as one of the best in the country would be its nomination to the Joe Moore Award, which honors the best offensive line unit in the nation.

Parker Ferguson, Nolan Laufenberg, Christopher Mitchell, Connor Vikupitz, Colin Marquez and Scott Hattok were all part of a unit that gave up the least sacks in the country again (4) and each could be found worthy to appear on either of the All-Mountain West Conference Teams. Yes, any of the six.

Timothy (Duval) Jackson/Kadin Remsberg/Ben Waters (All- MWC Honorable Mention)

Something Jackson, Remsberg and Waters all share in common; with more opportunities, all three could be First Team All Conference Players. They have been that caliber.

It’s interesting though, the thing that in one regard prevents these players from getting the recognition they may garner otherwise is the one thing that distinguishes Cadet athletes, a true team first mentality.

Remsberg and Jackson share the backfield and carries regularly with Donald Hammond and Taven Birdow, among others. I mention this particularly because the four of them are all in the top 18 in rushing in the conference, and all have gone for over 500 yards, with the exception of Hammond who falls short of that mark by nine yards.

Another interesting fact of note, this time last year, Ben Waters was a reserve on the secondary of the defense. And had he had enough catches to qualify, he would surplant his fellow pass catcher, Geraud Sanders as tops in the country for yards per reception.

All Conference Considers on Offense

Mosese Fifita (First or Second Team All- MWC)

Thanks to some recent changes around Cadet restrictions on weight, the Military Academies have been able to pursue and leverage some in season heft, they could not do in the past.

For Air Force, this advantage was very apparent this year in their own personal game-wrecker on the inside of the line, Mosese Fifita. The D-Line standout on the Falcon defensive line has collected five sacks on his way to being named to the Polynesian Player of the Year Watch List.

Air force was stout against the run, and their ability to collapse the pocket in the middle was a major reason the defense rebounded so spectacularly this season. This defensive unit now proudly boasts one of the top 25 total defenses in the country.

Jordan Jackson (Second Team or Honorable Mention All- MWC)

Coming into the 2019 season, there were lofty expectations for Jordan Jackson. He earned Second Team All-Conference honors last season as just a sophomore, and was prime for another strong campaign.

If you were to merely look at statistics you may say that he under performed relative to last season, as both sacks and tackles for loss were down this year. These are compelling stats, but I’d be remiss if his two forced fumbles and two batted passes were ignored this year.

I think very notably what you would find in the case for Jackson is that while those statistics may be down, the affect he had on the opposition and his team cannot be ignored. Teams had to gameplan for Jordan Jackson this year, and they did. In doing so, he drew attention that allowed players to Fifita to shine and the both of them ate up multiple blockers so linebacker’s Demonte Meeks and Kyle Johnson could stay clean and make players. This is a case where he made the whole defense that much better.

Demonte Meeks (First or Second Team All- MWC)

The back two levels of a defense will always benefit from strong defensive line play. The Air Force defense was no different this year. One of those players who made the most of their opportunity was Demonte Meeks at the inside linebacker spot. All over the field was Meeks who registered 97 tackles to go with his nine tackles for loss and four quarterback sacks.

A lot went into making this a ressurgent defense, and Meeks is certainly a cornerstone to that improved play. It is very revealing that he garners this attention considering to start the season, he was really in the shadow of highly productive and by many accounts an All- Conference level linebacker in his peer, Kyle Johnson.

Zane Lewis (Second Team All- MWC)

Another regular season in the books and another season that saw Zane Lewis intercept a pass and return it 99 yards for a touchdown. A single data point constitutes not a pattern. We have a trend here, and that is Zane Lewis is a rock solid cover corner.

While he only had one interception, he did take it to the house. In addition, the Falcon corner notched 40 tackles and 14 pass break-ups, good for third most in the MWC. Not since Roland Ladipo has Air Force placed a cornerback on the All Conference Team, but I suspect that trend ends in 2019. A few of those break-ups turned INT’s, and he’s a lock on the first team.

Lewis and his counterpart Tre Buggs III are major reasons why the Falcon pass defense rebounded so nicely. After a dreadful 2018 campaign, the Air Force pass defense finished this year second best in pass yards surrendered, and third in touchdowns. Monumental strides from last year.

Jake Koehnke (Second Team All- MWC)

When a team is complete in all three phases of the game, the results are just what Air Force experienced this year, a successful season. A 10 win campaign does not come easy, and getting guaranteed points every time you enter the red-zone goes a long way. The Falcons got just that from Jake Koehnke.

He may of only kicked 12 field goals this year, hitting on all of them, but you can’t ignore that one of those kicks was 57 yards long. Even dating back to last season, he Koehnke has proven to be a reliable leg, and will be tough to replace next season. If not for a couple of missed extra points, he locks down a first team spot. Lets not forget, this is a Lou Groza Award Finalist as well.

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Wyoming at Air Force: Three Keys to an Air Force Win

Can the Falcons extend their winning streak to seven games? Here’s our preview of how Air Force can beat the Cowboys.

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Wyoming vs. Air Force: Game Preview, Kick Time, TV & Radio Schedule, Odds, Prediction


Can the Falcons Extend their Win Streak to Seven?


Contact/Follow @Sean or @MWCWire

WEEK 14: Wyoming Cowboys (7-4, 4-3 Mountain West) vs. Air Force Falcons (9-2, 6-1 Mountain West)

WHEN: Saturday, November 30 —12:00 PM MT/1:00 PM PT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium; Colorado Springs, Colorado (46,692)

STREAMING: Facebook Live

RADIO: Air Force | Wyoming

SERIES RECORD: Air Force leads the all-time series 28-26 (and 3 ties)

GAME NOTES (PDF): Wyoming | Air Force

ODDS (via OddsShark): Air Force -14

SP+ PROJECTION: Air Force -11.4

FEI PROJECTION: Air Force -15.5

Week 14 is here, and where does the time go? Air Force and Wyoming meet on Saturday to close out their regular season. If you like physical throwback football this should be the game for you. That is, if Donald Hammond doesn’t go off completing 90% of his passes for over 300 yards again.

Hammond and the rest of the Falcon offense will find the Cowboys defense to be a much stiffer test than what they faced last week. In fact, it wouldn’t be too far a stretch to say that Air Force will go from facing the conferences worst defense, to its most formidable.

The Falcons don’t pack such a bad defense themselves, with much improved performance this year surrendering 21 points per game.

In fact, I don’t think the defense has really been as appreciated because of the offenses flash. But in many games this season, it’s actually been the defense that has set the tone until the offense got going. Frankly, it was the defense who was most responsible for their win against Army.

As stout as that performance has been, the Pokes are giving up just over 17 per game. So even with the improved defense of Air Force, this is truly a strength on strength matchup of the Falcons offense, averaging 35 points per game against, up against the very formidable Wyoming D.

Three Keys to an Air Force Victory

1. Balance on Offense

Real estate won’t come easy against Wyoming, so it will be imperative for the Falcons to keep them guessing. Regardless of the opponent, the ground game is Air Force’s bread and butter. And for them to find success on the ground, a threat through the air should also be present.

As previously stated, the Wyoming pass defense will pose a completely different challenge than the Lobos did. So getting the Pokes defense out of position and guessing will be paramount to success. Not an easy thing to do against the Logan Wilson led, Cowboys crew. But predictability is not an option this week.

2. Don’t Let Halliburton Drill

A key cog in the Falcons offensive wheel is to stay ahead of the chains and on schedule. This means avoiding tackles for loss and especially those third and long scenarios. For Air Force to mitigate those less favorable down-and-distance scenarios, they must account for Alijah Halliburton.

Not only is the Wyoming safety third in the conference with over 100 tackles, but he is seventh in tackles for loss, averaging nearly one per game. Halliburton isn’t the only player that the Falcons need to worry about on their side of the line of scrimmage, as Wyoming is second in the conference with sacks.

3. No Turnovers

In spite of what has been a very successful season thus far for the Falcons, turnovers have been problematic. Fumbles in particular, these two teams are at complete opposite ends of the spectrum. Wyoming has only lost three fumbles all season, while Air Force has surrendered the ball via fumble 11 times. This should be a point of focus considering Wyoming’s offense is extremely run heavy.

It would serve the Falcon offense well to be particularly careful with the ball in the air also, as Wyoming’s All-Everything linebacker, Logan Wilson is near the top of the conference with four interceptions.

Prediction

I expect an excellent game between two of the conferences top teams on Saturday. Air Force may be favored by most publications, and come in with more momentum, but I’ve seen a very good 10-win Air Force team lose to a Colby Kirkegaard led Pokes team that won just three FBS games that season.

Whether it’s freshman Levi Williams or Tyler Vander Waal under center, the Pokes will show up ready. Currently Vander Waal sits atop the depth chart after exiting last weeks game.

Even if Wyoming has not had spectacular production from their pass game, Tyler Vander Waal stepped in for an injured Shawn Chambers last year and led the Pokes to a win against Air Force. This is just that kind of series, you don’t necessarily get the expected result.

Air Force should be dialed in for this game, after all, they have lost the last three in the series. So I don’t believe they will be surprised by what Wyoming throws at them. Then again, most teams aren’t, yet they have stacked up wins. Not every team has the multitude of weapons that the Falcon offense is blessed with this year though.

Points could be at a premium for both teams; As good as the Wyoming defense is, I think Air Force has a much better offense comparably. That combined with a defense that seems to keep getting better, should give the Cadets a slight edge.

Air Force 17 – Wyoming 13

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NFL Thanksgiving best bets extravaganza

There are seven bets for three games on Thanksgiving.

Most people who read the weekly best bets know my rules. One of the rules is don’t just bet to bet. Another rule is don’t bet every game because it’s impossible to make money. Well, there is one day — in the regular season since we have to bet every playoff game that is an exception to that rule and that’s Thanksgiving day. There’s nothing better than waking up with a wager on the early game followed by constantly checking your phone during the Thanksgiving meal — insert drunk Uncle joke here because everyone makes one. The obvious next move is to fade in and out of sleep in the afternoon watching football on the couch and moving to a nice adult beverage and the night game to wrap up a beautiful football filled Thursday.

As usual, the home teams are in CAPS, and we are using Bet MGM for our odds.  Games will be listed at -110 unless denoted otherwise.