Tag: Diamondbacks Cardinals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (11-13) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (10-13) Tuesday in the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Cards walked it off Monday night as 2B Nolan Gorman hit a 2-run shot to win it 5-3. We cashed 2 of 3 bets here as RHP Lance Lynn fell short of the 16.5-out threshold with 5 innings. He allowed 3 runs over 7 hits and 3 walks while fanning 7 in an uneconomical 5 innings. Arizona led 3-0 after 5 innings as 3B Eugenio Suarez went 3 for 4 with 2 RBIs. D-Backs RHP Brandon Pfaadt actually had a perfect game going until the 6th.

The Cards struck for 2 in the 6th, and 1B Paul Goldschmidt ended a 20-game drought with a homer in the 7th to tie it. Gorman entered the game as a defensive substitution in the 8th, and he took the first pitch he saw 425 feet into the right field stands to end an 0-for-19 slump in the 9th. The Cards’ pen threw 4 shutout innings in the W.

Diamondbacks at Cardinals projected starters

LHP Tommy Henry vs. LHP Steven Matz

Henry (0-1, 6.87 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.80 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 over 18 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K last Tuesday against Chicago Cubs
  • 1 career start vs. Cards: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K Aug. 19, 2022

Matz (1-1, 3.60 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 in 20 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K Wednesday against Oakland A’s
  • Last 5 starts vs. Arizona: 2-1, 2.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 23 K in 29 1/3 IP

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cardinals -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-185) | Cardinals -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 4, Cardinals 3

Moneyline

Henry has been the tale of 2 tapes thus far. In 2 home starts, he has yet to go 5 IP and allowed 5 ER. In 2 road starts, in Colorado and Atlanta mind you, he went 5 and allowed 2 ER in each. The Cards are 3-1 against left-handers this season, but Henry is the kind of lefty that predominately gives St. Louis trouble. Matz has given up 9 runs (6 earned) in his last 2 starts, and Arizona gets to him.

Take the DIAMONDBACKS +115.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m foregoing the spread here and zoning in on Henry. We mentioned his drastic home/road splits, albeit in a small sample size. He has a 9.9 K/9 in 2 road starts as opposed to 7.6 at home. He struck out 7 Cards over 5 1/3 IP in his only start against them.

Take TOMMY HENRY OVER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS (+110).

Upon logging into BetMGM, there was a 33% MLB Odds Boost, which makes this a beefy +146.

Over/Under

The Under 8.5 prevailed Monday. The Over is now 3-6-1 for Arizona in its last 10, and St. Louis is 3-7. It’s slated to be 60 degrees with a light 6-mph gust swirling out to right-center.

We said this was dicey Monday, and it’s dicey again Tuesday. But take the value and LEAN UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (11-12) take on the St. Louis Cardinals (9-13) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at Busch Stadium at 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: D-backs lead 2-1

The Diamondbacks, who are coming off a 4-game split at San Francisco, are feast or famine. They are 5-5 in their last 10, and one stretch saw them lose 5-0 and follow that up with a 17-1 win. Arizona took 2 of 3 at home against St. Louis 2 weekends ago. The D-backs are tied for 3rd with 5.7 runs per game and 4th with a .334 OBP.

The Cards were swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend. They were outscored 16-6 as the Cards repeatedly left the bases loaded and failed to drive in runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs — Five of those 6 runs were scored in the Saturday game. 1B Paul Goldschmidt was dropped from 2nd to 5th in the order Sunday as he’s hitting .179 with 1 homer and 8 RBIs.

Diamondbacks at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. RHP Lance Lynn

Pfaadt (1-1, 5.32 ERA) makes his 5th start of 2024. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over 23 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home defeat vs. Chicago Cubs Wednesday
  • April 12 vs. Cards: No-decision, 6 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 9-6 home loss

Lynn (1-0, 2.18 ERA) also makes his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 20 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 3-2 victory at Oakland Athletics Tuesday
  • Last 5 regular-season starts vs. D-backs: 3-1, 3.30 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 33 K in 30 IP

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Diamondbacks -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cardinals -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Diamondbacks 3

Moneyline

Lynn’s biggest issue has been giving up the long ball, and he has given up 4 of them this year. Three came in one start, though. Busch Stadium has played like a pitcher’s paradise thus far, and the Cards got to Pfaadt for 6 runs 10 days ago.

Take the CARDINALS (-110) to snap their 4-game losing streak.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m foregoing the spread here and honing in on Lynn. He has gone exactly 6 IP in his last 5 starts against Arizona. He went 7 IP in his last start, and he admitted his game plan was to allow hitters to swing early in counts and get themselves out. He was fine with just 1 K. The Diamondbacks are the 2nd-toughest team to whiff, and I could see a similar gameplan.

Take LANCE LYNN OVER 16.5 OUTS (-120).

Over/Under

This one is dicey, but I’m siding with the Under. These teams hit 2 Unders in Arizona, more of a hitters’ park. Arizona is 4-5-1 O/U in their last 10, and St. Louis is 3-7.

Take the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (8-11) and St. Louis Cardinals (10-7) clash in a series opener at Busch Stadium Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting of 2022. St. Louis went 6-1 against Arizona last year.

Arizona arrives in St. Louis after acquitting itself well in a tough 6-game home stand against the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers. The D-backs went 3-3 over the half-dozen games and are 5-3 across their last 8.

The Cardinals snapped a 3-game losing skid with a 10-5 home win over the New York Mets Wednesday. The 10 runs were a welcome change for a Redbirds club that had averaged just 2.60 runs per game over its previous 10 contests. Over that stretch, St. Louis logged a paltry .546 OPS.

RHP Humberto Castellanos vs. RHP Dakota Hudson

Castellanos (1-0, 3.00 ERA) has notched a 1.25 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 12 IP over 4 games (2 starts).

  • Allowed just 2 runs in 9 IP as a starter
  • Logged a 4.93 ERA in 45 2/3 IP last season

Hudson (1-1, 3.95 ERA) makes his fourth start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 through 13 2/3 IP.

  • Held Cincinnati Reds scoreless in a 6 2/3 innings Saturday in last start
  • Appeared in just 13 games (2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP in 61 1/3 IP) since having Tommy John surgery in 2020

Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 2:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Cardinals -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140) | Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Diamondbacks 4

Money line

This wager fits as a play fading a Cardinal bullpen getting by on a .250 batting average on balls in play and a St. Louis offense leveraging a .359 BABIP in high-leverage situations.

The visiting Diamondbacks have played well lately. Their bullpen is not in great shape heading into Thursday’s game, but the tag here makes DIAMONDBACKS (+145) worth a shot even if its a 55-60% likelihood the Cards win the game.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS. The plus money is worth the shot in the money-line play.

Over/Under

There is some growth room in the Arizona batting and run-scoring numbers, and much of the pitching analysis on both sides is fade-worthy. With the low total, BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-105).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (22-59) hope to salvage one game of their three-game road series against the St. Louis Cardinals (39-41) Wednesday afternoon. First pitch is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Riley Smith is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 1-3 with a 5.71 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 58 1/3 IP over five starts and 14 appearances out of the bullpen.

This will be his first start since May 14. He has a 7.36 ERA over 22 IP across his five starts.

LHP Kwang Hyun Kim is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 54 1/3 IP spanning 12 starts.

He allowed 4 runs on 9 hits over 5 innings against the Diamondbacks in a 9-2 Cards loss May 30. He allowed only 1 earned run in seven of his starts, and he allowed 3 or more in each of the other five.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Cardinals -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-110) | Cardinals -1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Cardinals 5, Diamondbacks 4

Money line (ML)

The Diamondbacks have only one win in their last 28 road games, and they’ve lost three in a row after snapping their MLB-record 24-game road losing skid. They lost Smith’s last four starts.

The Cardinals won three of their last four games after snapping a five-game losing skid. They are 6-6 with Kim on the mound but dropped six of his last seven starts.

Take the CARDINALS (-225).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Despite losing four of their five games on this road trip, the Diamondback covered the spread in three of the five games and in six of their last nine overall. They have improved to 19-26 ATS on the road.

The Cardinals covered the spread in only two of their last eight games. They are 19-21 ATS at home and 3-3 ATS against the Diamondbacks this season.

Take the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under (O/U)

Only seven stadiums have a lower Over percentage than Busch Stadium’s 41.7%. Both games of this series went Under. Only two of the Cardinals’ last nine games went Over the projected total.

Smith’s ERA as a starter isn’t great and Kim is either great or in trouble in his starts.

Today I LEAN OVER 8.5 (-120).

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Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (22-58) and St. Louis Cardinals (38-41) continue their three-game series Tuesday with first pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

St. Louis beat Arizona in the first game of the series 7-1 by raking the Diamondbacks for six runs in the bottom of the 7th inning.

Season series: Cardinals lead 4-1.

LHP Caleb Smith is on the rubber for the Diamondbacks. Smith is 2-3 with a 3.03 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 across six starts and 18 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 6 K Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

RHP Carlos Martinez makes his 15th start for the Cardinals. Martinez is 3-9 with a 6.78 ERA (73 IP, 55 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 8-2, with 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 7 BB and 2 K against the Pittsburgh Pirates Thursday.
  • Martinez earned a no-decision May 27 at the D-Backs with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K in St. Louis’s 5-4 win.
  • vs. Diamondbacks on the current roster: 75 at-bats with a .173/.262/.240 slash line, 22/7 K/BB, 0 HR and 4 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Cardinals -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) | Cardinals -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Diamondbacks 7, Cardinals 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the DIAMONDBACKS (+125) for a half unit despite how historically bad they’ve been on the road this season because the Cardinals’ implied win probability of 60.8% is too high.

First of all, Martinez’s pitching peripherals are even worse than his basic numbers. He grades in the 27th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, chase rate, whiff rate, expected wOBA, K% and expected slugging percentage.

Also, St. Louis’s bullpen is very unreliable so the door is never closed for an Arizona comeback. The Cardinals relievers have the league’s worst SIERA, BB% and xFIP.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Diamondbacks +1.5 (-155) is too expensive considering Arizona has the fifth-worst cover rate in MLB as a road dog (18-24 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

I “LEAN” to the OVER 9 (-110) for a half unit because of a couple of “trendy” reasons and Arizona’s bullpen being even worse than St. Louis’s.

For instance, the D-Backs relievers have the worst WAR in the majors, fourth-most home runs allowed per nine innings and the second-worst left-on-base percentage.

St. Louis is 9-5 O/U in Martinez’s 14 starts this season, the D-Backs went Over the total in six straight road games prior to the first game of this series which ended that streak. The Over has cashed in four of the last five Diamondbacks-Cardinals meetings.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (22-57) continue their six-game road trip with the first of three games against the St. Louis Cardinals (37-41) Monday evening. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Jake Faria is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks. He is 0-0 with 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K over 4 IP spanning three relief appearances.

This will be Faria’s first start of the year and first in the majors since 2018 when he played for the Tampa Bay Rays.

LHP Wade LeBlanc is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals. He is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 over 13 1/3 IP spanning 10 appearances, including one start.

Since signing with the Cardinals June 17, LeBlanc has come out of the bullpen four times. He has 14 career games, including 10 starts, against the Diamondbacks. He is 3-3 with a 4.18 ERA against them.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Diamondbacks at Cardinals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Cardinals -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140) | Cardinals -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Cardinals 6, Diamondbacks 5

Money line (ML)

The Diamondbacks have lost 25 of their last 26 games on the road and have only four wins in their last 39 games. Their 10 road victories are the second-fewest in MLB.

The Cardinals lost eight of their last 10 games and three of four during their current homestand.

Because of Arizona’s consistent struggles over the last month and a half, I LEAN CARDINALS (-165).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Diamondbacks covered the spread in five of their last seven games, including two of the three games on the road against the San Diego Padres. However, they still have one of the lowest road cover percentages in all of baseball at 41.9%.

The Cardinals are 38-40 ATS on the season and 18-20 ATS at home. They covered the spread in one of their last six games.

I don’t necessarily trust Arizona to keep it close, but it is the uncertainty of two starters making their first starts for their respective teams that makes me think this game will go back and forth.

Take the DIAMONDBACKS +1.5 (-140).

Over/Under (O/U)

Over 55% of Diamondbacks games this season have gone Over the projected total. All three games in their series against the Padres and 11 of their last 16 games hit the Over.

Cardinals games have gone Over the projected total 51.4% of the time this season but only 44.1% of their games at Busch Stadium have done so.

Take OVER 9 (+100).

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