Tag: DFS Week 17 sleepers

We have reached the second-to-the-last regular-season slate of the year. There are no byes. There are no Saturday or Tuesday or Thursday games. All we have are Sunday and then the Primetime slate. Next week, we don’t even get the Primetime games, so enjoy one more week without the entire NFL player pool in the main slate.

DFS: The Primetime Slate

Kirk Cousins travels to Green Bay where he has back-to-back one-TD performances. Injuries and absences due to COVID will press Cousins to do more with less in this game. Fortunately, he will be forced to play uptempo to keep up with the Green Bay Packers. This should lock him into the QB2 slot safely.

The top slot goes to Aaron Rodgers. He is the best QB playing, and he has the best matchup. The only thing that could slow him down would be the dreaded “C word.” The only thing you should worry about is how chalky he will be.

Thanks to the changing protocols, Dalvin Cook will be allowed to play despite being unvaxxed and falling on the COVID protocol last week. Originally, he would be forced to miss both last week and this week. He gets the RB2 nod this week. Alexander Mattison returns to backup status. He might have a thin FLEX value. I’ll list him at RB7.

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon continue to run a split backfield. Jones is out-touching Dillon slightly, so he gets the RB4 slot, and Dillon gets to be the RB5. Jones has missed two of the last three games against Minnesota, but in other recent matchups with them, he has obliterated the Vikes. If Dillon was out for this game, for whatever reason, I would consider bumping Jones to RB3.

Adam Thielen returned last week and almost immediately pulled a Grampa Simpson and re-exited, tweaking his injury. He now finds himself on season-ending IR due to this reinjury. Justin Jefferson will be forced to step up his play, and he is no worse than the WR3 here. It should be noted that JJ has struggled in two of his three career starts against Green Bay. K.J. Osborn will get another start. He has seen 26 targets and three scores over the last four weeks. With no Thielen, Osborn is in the WR5/6 territory, and he makes a great run-it-back play.

Davante Adams locks in at WR1 here. Don’t overthink this. Adams owns the Vikings. Marquez Valdes-Scantling missed last week with COVID. Prior to that, he was thriving as the field-stretcher for the Pack. Assuming he returns, MVS steps right back into your WR3 consideration on double-GB stacks. You could also use Allen Lazard in that role. He has been solid all year regardless of MVS’ status. I prefer Valdes-Scantling, but could use either of them.

Tyler Conklin has played well this season, but his production has been more pedestrian since his two-TD game in Week 10. He is still the third-best TE (assuming Pat Freiermuth plays) on this slate and has the second-best matchup. I think he makes a decent pivot from the rookie — just know that he doesn’t have a huge ceiling.

Green Bay has two TEs to consider in Josiah Deguara and Marcedes Lewis. Unfortunately, both are used sporadically, at best. Neither is better than TE5 on this slate. I’ll probably save them for Showdown contests.

The Packers should be a popular defense play here. Personally, I’d rather use one of the teams on MNF. The Vikes should be avoided in this spot.

Monday, Baker Mayfield travels to Pittsburgh. He has struggled mightily against the Steelers of late. In his last four meetings against them, he has thrown for a total of three TDs. Pittsburgh has seen their defense fall on hard times of late, but I just don’t feel Cleveland has enough weapons to take advantage of it. Consider Baker your QB4, with a short ceiling.

Ben Roethlisberger has had a rotten last two weeks. Prior to that, he was actually on a bit of a hot streak. I feel the loss of the safety valve, Pat Freiermuth, has hurt the most. Big Ben still has a ton of quality options around him, so he will finish no worse than QB3 this week. If Freiermuth returns, Ben may even outperform Kirk Cousins.

Kareem Hunt was already battling an ankle injury when he went on the COVID list last week. He has cleared the protocol, but we do not know if his ankle will allow him to play. If he makes it out there, I’ll give him the RB6 nod. Otherwise, that RB6 slot will go to D’Ernest Johnson. Johnson could be used at FLEX, but there feels like better options for that role. You may have noticed that I’ve skipped over the discussion of Nick Chubb until this point. Regardless of who else plays, he is the RB1 here. Just know that his numbers may take a slight ding if Hunt is active.

For Pittsburgh, the RB corps is Najee Harris and no one else. He ranks as my RB3 this week. Cleveland is very good against the run, but Najee actually broke 100 total yards and scored in their earlier meeting. Give him a slight value bump if Freiermuth remains out.

Jarvis Landry returned last week and had a middling game against Green Bay. This week should be easier for him. Based on his PPR usage, he will finish as either WR4 or WR5 on this docket. Donovan Peoples-Jones has some punt WR3 appeal since he can score from anywhere on the field. I just prefer to use him in Showdown contests. Rashard Higgins has seen a boost in usage the last two weeks. This shouldn’t be written off in a good matchup like this. That said, his ceiling is capped by Baker Mayfield’s low ceiling.

Despite starting to get the dropsies again, Diontae Johnson has been so heavily involved in the offense for Pittsburgh that he can not be ignored. On this short slate, he should be no worse than the WR3 overall. I prefer him on DK where he gets the full PPR, but don’t ignore him on FD. Chase Claypool has made a few boneheaded plays in recent weeks. This has led him to fall behind Ray-Ray McCloud in targets. Claypool is more talented than McCloud, so I don’t mind using him at WR3. That said, he is probably WR7 or WR8 overall here. McCloud could be a punt WR3, but I’d prefer to save him for Showdown contests. The same goes for James Washington.

Austin Hooper is the safest TE play on the Browns. He is also no worse than the TE2 overall on this slate. Pittsburgh is elite against the position, but Cleveland uses so many two and three-TE sets, that Hooper basically becomes the equivalent of their slot WR. David Njoku was silenced last week, but he is also arguably more talented than any TEs on this slate not named Hooper and Freiermuth. I’ll list him at no worse than TE4 here. Harrison Bryant scored for a second straight week. He also has all of three catches over those two games. He is clearly TD-dependent, but at that price, he could be a nice dart throw at TE6/7. He also becomes a must-start in Showdown.

If he returns from his concussion, Pat Freiermuth instantly becomes the TE1 on this slate. Prior to his injury, Pat had scored six times in his last eight games. Meanwhile, Cleveland has allowed the fifth-most TE scores. If Freiermuth remains out, Zach Gentry will get another start. Gentry had a very blase first run with the first team. At best, he may compete with the Packers’ pair for the TE5 slot.

Both of these teams will be popular defense choices. I like both of them, but don’t have a clear favorite between them.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $7.1k for Matthew Stafford. $6.5k for David Montgomery. $4.9k for Boston Scott. $9.5k for Cooper Kupp. $6.7k for Jaylen Waddle. $3.3k for Jalen Reagor. $3.8k for Foster Moreau. $5k for Rex Burkhead. $3.2k for the Chicago Bears defense.

At FD: $7.6k for Stafford. $7.2k for Montgomery. $6.2k for Darrel Williams (if Clyde Edwards-Helaire doesn’t play) (or $6k for Scott). $10.2k for Cooper Kupp. $6.1k for DeVonta Smith. $5.6k for Cole Beasley. $5.2k for Moreau. $7k for Ronald Jones at FLEX. $4.8k for the Bears defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Jalen Hurts, Stafford at SF, Montgomery, and Scott, Burkhead at FLEX, Kupp, Davante Adams, Dallas Goedert, and Moreau at TE.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – After a week of schlock at QB, we get a healthy dose of great matchups for the expensive studs up top. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott are all in play near the top price range. In the midtier, I like Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson. Then for the bargain hunters, I like Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and whoever starts for Chicago. The biggest value might be Trey Lance.

Fantasy Four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills vs. ATL
($8,000 DK, $8,800 FD)
Allen was able to succeed last week versus the Patriots. This week will be much easier. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the league against the pass and they have also struggled with rushing QBs this season. Allen should be able to take advantage of them both ways.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs @ CIN
($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Earlier this season there were questions about if the league had figured out Mahomes. Now he is beating the opposition with Byron Pringle and Blake Bell leading the charge. Saint Patrick gets both Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill back this week. He will need all of his tools at his disposal since Cincinnati can actually keep up with KC in a track meet. I like this game to approach 65 combined points. That should mean at least three passing scores for Mahomes.

Matthew Stafford, Rams @ BAL
($7,100 DK, $7,600 FD)
If this game was in LA, Stafford might reach 5x value here. As it sits, I will still expect no less than 3x against a Baltimore defense that is embarrassing at this point. They did get back Jimmy Smith, but he can’t cover Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, and Van Jefferson. He can’t even cover just Kupp. three passing TDs is Stafford’s floor. My only concerns are if weather comes into play or if Stafford is pulled at halftime.

Tom Brady, Buccaneers @ NYJ
($7,600 DK, $8,300 FD)
Thirty-eight career games played against the New York Jets. Brady knows what it means to step into the bright lights of New York. This will be his first game with the Bucs against the Jets, but even without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, he still has enough weapons to succeed. The Bucs coaches may choose to lean a little more on their running game this week, but we all know that Brady won’t have any of that. In a cake matchup, he will take his share, then share a little of the remainder with the backfield.

DFS Sleepers

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins @ TEN
($5,800 DK, $6,700 FD)
I still feel uncomfortable watching Tua throw the ball. Part of it is because he is left-handed. Part of it is because it appears that he releases the ball at such a low trajectory. Still, he has a full complement of extremely talented receivers to throw to. When you have that many quality options, he can have a poor throw and still have it be caught. Tennessee is near the bottom of the league in yards allowed to the position, and they have given up a league-high five QB rushing TDs. I expect Tua to score both ways this week.

Jared Goff, Lions @ SEA
($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
I wanted to use Goff last week. Then he got COVID and Tim Boyle actually fared well in his place. This matchup is even better. Only one team has allowed more passing yards than Seattle and Goff is among the passing TD leaders since his return to the starting role. Josh Reynolds is on the COVID list right now, but both he and Amon-Ra St. Brown make great stack options with Goff in what I believe may be a Detroit upset.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Last week was all about the cheap injury replacements at RB. This week we don’t get that obvious boost. Jonathan Taylor has a great matchup and a McCaffreyian price tag. Joe Mixon could do some serious damage through the air against KC. Damien Harris and David Montgomery have easy matchups at a slight discount. Then everything gets shaky. Rashaad Penny has an easy matchup, but his price has finally caught up with his lead-back role. The bargain options worth considering are Dare Ogunbowale, Ke’Shawn,  Vaughn, Rex Burkhead, and whoever starts for Philadelphia. That is not a lot to choose from. Maybe we will get lucky and Eli Mitchell will miss another game leaving Jeff Wilson in play.

Fantasy Four-pack

Jonathan Taylor, Colts vs. LV
($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)
I’m confounded at how the Raiders managed to hold Denver’s backfield in check last week. Vegas has shown no other signs of effort on defense since Jon Gruden was replaced. Perhaps, they are starting to play better, or maybe they just decided to stack the box and try to force Drew Lock to beat them. The potential absence of Carson Wentz could produce a similar result this week, but Taylor has more talent than the Denver Duo. If Wentz doesn’t play I will likely limit my exposure to Taylor, but I won’t completely ignore him.

Damien Harris, Patriots vs. JAX
($6,600 DK, $7,400 FD)
The biggest worry that Harris has to face is the proclivity of Bill Belichick to get cute with his RB room. Jacksonville. Only five teams have allowed more running back rushing TDs this season and Harris is coming off of a three-TD performance. This gives him 11 in his last nine games. Harris is a complete afterthought in the passing game, but he shouldn’t need any of that to reach 3x value here.

David Montgomery, Bears vs. NYG
($6,500 DK, $7,200 FD)
Montgomery faces a New York defense that is bottom-six in yards allowed to RBs both on the ground and through the air. Fortunately, David can take advantage of that on both sides. I would feel best if Justin Fields can play this week, but any of the Bears’ QBs should be able to drive this offense against the motley Giants. This should open the door for Montgomery to top 125 total yards and score at least once.

Joe Mixon, Bengals vs. KC
($7,500 DK, $8,500 FD)
Mixon has done well even in bad matchups this year. This has led to him being tied for the third-most total scores for an RB this season. KC isn’t exactly tough to run against, but teams usually are forced to abandon the run to hang with them. Cincy won’t have to because they have the weapons to stay in stride. Plus, KC can be beaten by pass-catching backs. Mixon is multi-purpose. He can achieve both on the ground and through the air. I can see him topping 100 total yards with five catches and a single score. That will make him a safer play on DK than FD.

DFS Sleepers

Rashaad Penny, Seahawks vs. DET
($6,100 DK, $6,900 FD)
Only one team has allowed more total RB touchdowns than Detroit. Meanwhile, Penny has taken over as the lead back in Seattle. Since taking over in Week 13, he has more total opportunities than all the other Seahawk backs combined. In two of those four games, Penny struggled against great defenses. In the other two contests (against bad defenses) he went crazy. Detroit qualifies as a bad defense.

Rex Burkhead, Texans @ SF
($5,000 DK, $5,600 FD)
I hate chasing points, but Burkhead’s performance last week does not feel like an outlier. This offense is finally starting to gel behind QB Davis Mills. San Fran is no cakewalk, but they may actually be playing from behind with Trey Lance forced to start for them. This could put Houston in the position to run the ball more frequently.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Cooper Kupp is the clear WR1 this week against a futile Baltimore pass defense. If you don’t use him make sure you use one of his running mates at WR2. The other high-priced options I like are Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, and Jaylen Waddle. I don’t dislike any of the Bengals in a shootout with KC, but it is just too hard to choose between them this week. Tyler Boyd might be the right answer among them since he comes at a lesser cost. Other WR2 that I Like are Hunter Renfrow, Antonio Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman, and the aforementioned Rams. Michael Gallup and Rashod Bateman are both woefully underpriced (especially on DK). I love either of them at WR3. If Cole Beasley or Gabriel Davis returns and you don’t play Diggs, you could start one of them at WR3. If they are both out again, give me one more huge game from Isaiah McKenzie. Braxton Berrios gets another chance to shine if Jamison Crowder and Elijah Moore remain out for the Jets. My deep punts at WR3 include Antoine Wesley and Jalen Reagor.

Fantasy Four-pack

Cooper Kupp, Rams @ BAL
($9,500 DK, $10,200 FD)
Kupp continues to post a weekly floor of 10-125-1. That right there almost guarantees a 30-point performance. Line him up against this sorry excuse for a secondary and we could see a 200-2 sort of game as Matthew Stafford tries to get him the league yardage record over the next two weeks.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs @ CIN
($8,300 DK, $8,200 FD)
With the healthy return of Travis Kelce, Cincy will not be able to triple-team Tyreek Hill. It seemed clear that Hill was limited in his return from COVID last week. As long as that does not linger into this weekend, he should return to 10-100-1 range in a shootout game.

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. ATL
($7,900 DK, $8,000 FD)
Diggs’ price is considerably less than that of Cooper Kupp. That said, he has the best chance of any of the receivers on the board replicating Kupp’s final line. Atlanta has allowed the fifth-most receptions and the third-most TDs to opposing WRs.

Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins @ TEN
($6,700 DK, $7,000 FD)
No team has allowed more receiving yards to opposing WRs this season. Plus, Waddle is chasing some rookie receiving records. Since Week 6, only Cooper Kupp has more receptions among WRs and Waddle ranks eighth in receiving yards.

DFS Sleepers

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions @ SEA
($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD)
Even with Tim Boyle under center last week, St. Brown had another huge game. This week, Josh Reynolds finds himself on the COVID list, so if he doesn’t clear by Sunday, Amon-Ra will see even more targets. Over the last four weeks, only Cooper Kupp leads him in receptions and he is fourth in receiving yards. Seattle is middle-of-the-pack at best against the position, they will certainly struggle with the young stud here.

Michael Gallup, Cowboys vs. ARI
($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD)
This is a glitch in the pricing algorithm. Arizona has allowed the most WR touchdowns this year, including eight over the last four games. CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are also solid plays in this game, but Gallup’s price is so far below theirs on DK that this should be a set-it-and-forget-it WR3. Gallup is coming off of a pair of duds which should hold his ownership numbers down but don’t let that dissuade you. He has been targeted five times or more in every game that he has played this year.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Mark Andrews has been a stud regardless of who has started at QB for Baltimore. The matchup is neutral, but if I am paying up, I’ll consider him. Both George Kittle and Travis Kelce have sweet matchups. I can see a legit argument for going double-TE this week with expensive TEs. Should Darren Waller play, his matchup is also juicy. This means that since Waller is likely out, Foster Moreau is in a monster spot to score big. Rob Gronkowski also looks primed for a big game. Even the second-tier is packed with Dawson Knox, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, and Noah Fant all in play. Hunter Henry and the aforementioned Moreau will be my cheaper pivots. You can also use one of the WFT tight ends or Mo Alie-Cox as a punt.

Fantasy Four-pack

Travis Kelce, Chiefs @ CIN
($7,300 DK, $8,200 FD)
Kelce is back off of the COVID list and he immediately gets to face an easy opponent. Cincy is fifth-worst in terms of receptions allowed and second-worst in terms of yards allowed to the position. Over the last four weeks, they rank dead last in both of those categories. Kelce went absolutely berzerk in his last game as he rounds himself into playoff form. This game will be higher-scoring meaning start everyone that you can afford.

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. LAR
($7,400 DK, $8,700 FD)
Andrews now has now posted 29-376-4 over the last three games. None of those games featured his top QB. Lamar Jackson may make his return this week, which shouldn’t hurt Andrews’s production. The Rams have allowed more than a quarter of their passing TDs to go to the position. So, the odds are better of him scoring than Marquise Brown or Rashod Bateman.

Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers @ NYJ
($6,200 DK, $6,700 FD)
Gronkowski now has back-to-back duds as teams have surrounded him with both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out. The Jets are eighth in TDs allowed and seventh in yards allowed to the position. This is definitely an easier matchup than those last two games. Plus, Gronk has scored nine times in 16 career games versus the Jets.

George Kittle, 49ers vs. HOU
($7,100 DK, $7,300 FD) We don’t know what we have with Trey Lance. He could be the next Lamar Jackson or he could be the next Colin Kapernick or he could end up being just the next Josh Rosen. What we do know is that historically young QBs lean on their TEs. Kittle is a beast when given the target share requisite. He should see many passes against a Houston defense that has struggled with every quality TE they have faced.

DFS Sleepers

Foster Moreau, Raiders @ IND
($3,800 DK, $5,200 FD)
This all comes down to whether or not Darren Waller plays. Right now, Waller looks doubtful. This means that Moreau gets to assault an Indy defense that has fallen behind even the rotten Philly TE defense. Over the last four weeks, Moreau is eighth among TEs in yardage and twelfth in both receptions and targets. This is a must-win game for Vegas, so Waller might force himself to go. If he starts, then disregard this recommendation outside of Showdown contests.

Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. JAX
($4,200 DK, $5,700 FD)
Jacksonville has allowed middling production to the position this year. That said, they have only faced three TEs that would be considered on par or better than Henry. All three had big games against this defense. Henry had a down game last week, but he was targeted six times. The prior week, versus Indy, he had eight targets and two scores. His range of outcomes is wide, but this smells like a positive spot for him.