The Los Angeles Lakers (16-6) host the Denver Nuggets (12-8) Thursday at the Staples Center in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference Finals. The tip-off is set for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Nuggets-Lakers NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Denver has been one of the hotter teams in the NBA winning six of their past seven games (6-1 against the spread) and four of which were on the road. The Nuggets pummeled the Utah Jazz Sunday 128-117.
The Lakers wrapped up a seven-game road trip with a 5-2 overall record (3-4 ATS) after back-to-back wins over the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks. Los Angeles struggled offensively ranking 22nd in offensive rating and 21st in team eFG% during its road trip.
Revenge is on Denver’s mind after losing to Los Angeles 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS) in the WCF and dropping the regular-season series 3-1 (2-2 ATS) last year.
Nuggets at Lakers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Nuggets +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Lakers -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nuggets +5.5 (-115) | Lakers -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 216.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Nuggets at Lakers: Key injuries
Nuggets
- SG Gary Harris (thigh) out
Lakers
- PF Anthony Davis (ankle) probable
- SF LeBron James (ankle) probable
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Nuggets at Lakers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Nuggets 113, Lakers 107
Money line (ML)
Nuggets All-Star Nikola Jokic didn’t play his best basketball last season vs. the Lakers in either the regular season or postseason. But, this is a different Jokic, whose game is ascending right before our eyes. Joker is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds and assists per game, eFG%, and usage rate.
Also, the Lakers could road-weary, and they’ve struggled recently coming off of road trips. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Plus, while it’s tough to be critical of a team that’s got the best defensive rating in the league (Lakers), but I believe C Marc Gasol, at this point in his career, is a downgrade defensively compared to Cs JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard.
Furthermore, the Lakers adding PF Montrezl Harrell this offseason helps their second unit’s offense but hurts its defense. The doughy interior defense for the Lakers is 25th in opponent’s points in the paint per game, which is trouble vs. this version of Jokic and a Nuggets team that scores the fifth-most points in the paint per game.
I lean NUGGETS (+170) for a one-fifth-unit because I like them to cover.
Against the spread (ATS)
This is a Pros vs. Joes spot in the market as 70% of the money is on the Nuggets, plus points, while 57% of the bets placed are with the Lakers, according to Pregame.com.
Definitely buy the insurance for Denver’s money line by TAKING the NUGGETS +5.5 (-115) for 1.25 units. The simplest way to put this is the Lakers are the champions and bettors should probably always take the points when fading the champs.
Over/Under (O/U)
I’m rolling with Joe Public, who’s backing the Over while the sharps are hammering the Under. This total opened at 219.5 and is getting steamed down so bettors taking the Under may get a cheaper price closer to tip-off.
The Lakers scored over seven points more at Staples Center compared to away games, and there are too many Over-friendly Nuggets trends. Denver has cashed the highest percentage of Overs, has a 3-0 O/U record as a road dog with a plus-19.2-point total margin and the Over has cashed in seven of Denver’s previous eight games vs. winning teams.
Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- NBA Power Rankings: Jazz overtake LeBron, Lakers for top spot (Rookie Wire)
- LeBron James: Fan interaction was something that I missed (LeBron Wire)
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