Tag: Dak Prescott

Week 11 EPA Power Rankings: Cowboys knocked from top-offense perch

Cowboys force-feed Zeke in Week 10 despite data showing he isn’t near the most effective backs in the NFL this year.

The NFL was full of upsets this week.  Heading into Monday Night Football, seven underdogs had come away with a victory, including the Cowboys loss to the Vikings, the Titans over the Chiefs, and the Falcons taking down the Saints.  It was only fitting that it should end with another one as the Seahawks took down the previously unbeaten 49ers in an overtime thriller.

That being said, this single week’s games weren’t enough to change much in each team’s Expected Points Differential.

Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.

A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.

Note: There was a bug within the program that scrapes all the NFL play-by-play data that affected the EPA on plays with challenges, which has since been fixed.  There was some slight movement in team EPA totals because of this, but nothing too major.

The top two teams stayed put this week despite San Francisco going home with a loss.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott performed better than either QB from these teams, netting a total of 24 EPA across 47 plays, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a rough day on the ground for Ezekiel Elliott.  The underlying numbers for Dallas, however, still make them look far better than their 5-4 record suggests.

Pittsburgh and Oakland were the biggest climbers this week, moving up five and four spots, respectively.  The Steelers’ offense isn’t very inspiring with Mason Rudolph at the helm, but their defense ranks third in the NFL in total EPA allowed, trailing only New England and San Francisco.  Rookie linebacker Devin Bush has proven he was worth the trade-up, while in-season acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick has picked off more passes than anyone in the NFL since moving up north from Miami.

We’ve got a new leader in total offensive EPA this week, as Lamar Jackson’s huge day put him in the top spot this week among offensive players.  Jackson’s 1.14 EPA/play more than doubled the amount of second-place Prescott (0.51 EPA/play).  Yes, the Bengals are bad, but nobody else has done that to them this season.  The next best performance against Cincinnati was Jimmy Garoppolo’s 0.66 EPA/play way back in Week 2.

Lamar Jackson has been an above average passer, ranking seventh in raw EPA/pass, but it’s his rushing success that has catapulted him to stardom.  Jackson now has started 16 games in his career, and if they were all in one season, he’d break Michael Vick’s single-season rushing yards record for quarterbacks.  He’s playing like 2013 Colin Kaepernick, if Kaepernick doubled his rushing yards and completed about 10% more of his passes.

Moving away from quarterbacks, let’s take a look at how running backs are doing in 2019 with their carries.  A few weeks ago, I found that teams are seeing more rushing success to the outside than they have been in the past decade, with the exception of short yardage situations.  With the help of NFL’s Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus, we can zoom in a bit more on specific running back performance.

What jumps out to me here is the 49ers stable of running backs.  Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida, and Tevin Coleman are all seeing above average loaded box counts, and yet Mostert and Breida are first and fourth in yards per carry.  Coleman, who sees more loaded boxes than anyone but Frank Gore, is still league average in YPC.

We can glean a better measure of effectiveness of the run game by using EPA/carry in this same fashion.

Coleman surpasses his teammates here even with the lower yards per carry mark because he’s seeing more work in short yardage situations.  Coleman has seen the 10th highest percentage of his carries in short yardage situations (3 or fewer yards to go) as well as the fourth highest touchdown percentage in the league.  Touchdowns and first downs are generally the biggest positive EPA plays, so it’s no wonder he looks better here.

Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook both appear near the top here, as expected, but the surprise might be that they are joined by Aaron Jones and the duo of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards.  Ingram is the leader in EPA/carry this year despite seeing more 8+ man box counts than either McCaffrey or Cook.  The threat of Lamar Jackson keeping the football on any given play coupled with a scheme that might even see Robert Griffin III receive a pitch is proving to be enough to run over anyone, even when they are prepared to stop the run.

On the other side of things, last year’s top performers (Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Todd Gurley) are all seeing below average loaded box counts and still only producing at a near average rate.  Elliott has been the best of this bunch so far, even with his tough day last weekend.

If we really want to break down running back performance, we need to look for places a running back can separate himself from his team’s coaching decisions and run blocking performance.  For that, let’s take a look at Pro Football Focus’ yards after contact.

It appears that the 49ers backs are helped more by scheme than by running backs breaking tackles.  The best back by this measure is Seattle’s Chris Carson, who is gaining more yards after contact than anyone in the league, and yet is still below average by EPA.  This is a good reminder that EPA evaluations are often indicative more of team performance rather than individual performance, especially when we’re looking at rushing.

The Ravens and the 49ers are great reminders that rushing can be effective in the modern NFL, and the situations in which teams choose to run the ball tend to have a larger impact on rushing success than the specific ball carrier.

Elliott can be an effective piece for the Cowboys offense, but it’s crucial they continue to focus his efforts on the ground against lighter boxes, which he’s seeing more than the average back in 2019.  His yards after contact is only just above league average, while his quarterback happens to be one of the most efficient in the league.  Let’s hope Dallas only feeds Elliott in optimum situations going forward, because when the light boxes are there, he can eat.

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News: Cowboys wasting Dak Prescott’s greatness feels eerily familiar

Cowboys news and notes for November 12 2019.

Starting with Sunday night’s loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the Dallas Cowboys entered what could potentially be the deciding four-game stretch of the season.  The team had an opportunity to start this stretch on a high note by defeating one of the stronger foes in the NFC.  Instead, they like so many times previously, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

The Cowboys have to start trusting their quarterback.  Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP caliber level and Jerry Jones knows he will command an MVP contract once the season is over.  Which is all the more reason to not waste the talent his rookie contract affords them.

Cowboys still America’s team

Death, taxes, and the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

Since 2010, the Cowboys rank first in the number of SNF contests averaging 20 million-plus viewers with 30 such games.  Whether they win or lose, people are intrigued by what happens with the Cowboys.  Both the NFL and NBC know this which is why the Cowboys are generally booked for the maximum allotment of SNF games every season.  Jerry Jones wants the focus of the sports world on the Cowboys every season, and the numbers back that up.

–CM

Cowboys Wire’s wall-to-wall coverage

Here are links to all of our in-house coverage of the loss.

— KD

Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper blast team’s lack of execution in loss to Vikings, won’t blame coaches :: CBS Sports

Our good friend Patrik Walker checks in with a great look  at what the players were saying following the tough loss.

“Yeah, it’s frustrating — definitely frustrating,” Prescott said following the game. “We had a chance, an opportunity right there at the end. A quarterback can’t ask for more — the ball in your hands, fourth down, a chance to make a throw to win the game. They made a great play. They made more plays than we did when it counted and beat us situationally.”

— KD

The Cowboys Just Need to Trust Dak Prescott :: The Ringer

Prescott carved up the Minnesota Viking defense all night.  Two of his three receivers eclipsed 100 yards receiving, and when the game was on the line the Cowboys took the ball out of his hands and put it in their $90 million running back’s instead.  Ezekiel Elliott isn’t going to take this team anywhere this season, if the Cowboys want to play football late January it’s Prescott who is going to take them where they want to go.  It’s time they started to trust him.

–CM

Dak Prescott again leads NFL in QBR Rating after Week 10

— KD

The Cowboys are wasting Dak Prescott :: The Draft Network

Prescott is proving his doubters wrong by his play so far this season and his nearly 400-yard performance against the Vikings cemented his status.

–CM

The Cowboys failed to get a statement win in a critical game vs. the Vikings, and that’s on Jason Garrett :: Dallas Morning News

A victory over the Vikings would have sent a statement to the rest of the NFL that Cowboys are for real.  Unfortunately, they stuck to an ultra-conservative philosophy of running the ball straight into the opponent, no matter the result.

–CM

Film room: 3 takeaways from Cowboys’ loss to Vikings, including an outstanding Dak Prescott performance gone to waste :: Dallas Morning News

John Owning gives his three takeaways from Sunday night’s loss.  While he also focuses on Prescott’s greatness and taking the game out of his hands, he has other areas to take to task.

Missed tackles, poor LB pursuit ruin Cowboys’ run defense

The Vikings may have finished with 36 carries for 153 rushing yards (4.3 yards per carry) and a score, but it was the 10 straight runs for 61 yards and touchdown on Minnesota’s lone touchdown drive that really broke the back of the Cowboys’ defense.

It was yet another instance of Dallas’ poor run defense setting the stage for disappointment, harking back to losses to the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Rams from last season. The Cowboys struggled mightily at bringing down Vikings running backs on first contact. In fact, 77 of Cook’s 97 rushing yards came after contact, illustrating Dallas’ tackling issues.

— KD

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Connor Williams to have knee surgery; Su’a-Filo to start in absence

Cowboys guard Connor Williams will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery on Tuesday. Xavier Su’a-Filo will start in his place.

The Cowboys let yet another game get away from them Sunday night, suffering a bitter defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings.  They lost yet another winnable game to an NFC opponent.  While Dak Prescott and the Cowboys passing game shredded the Vikings’ defense, the running game was abysmal, tallying only 50 yards on 22 attempts.

To make matters even worse for the rushing attack, starting left guard Connor Willams will be out for some time as he will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery Tuesday.

Williams is in the midst of his second NFL season after being selected in the second round of Texas in the 2018 draft.  After struggling in his first year due to a lack of pure strength, Williams has played 100% of the offensive snaps so far.

In his place, the Cowboys will start sixth-year pro Xavier Su’a-Filo.  Su’a-Filo started eight games for the Cowboys in 2018 after being signed as a free agent.

Connor McGovern, whom the Cowboys selected in the third round of the 2019 draft still has not practiced after suffering a torn pectoral in the offseason and being placed on injured reserve.

Who danced it better, Dak Prescott or Jimmy Garoppolo?

Seems like quarterback are emulating each other when it comes to dance moves. Dak Prescott went viral for some of his before the Vikings met his Dallas Cowboys Sunday. Then, prior to the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers Monday, …

Seems like quarterback are emulating each other when it comes to dance moves. Dak Prescott went viral for some of his before the Vikings met his Dallas Cowboys Sunday. Then, prior to the Seattle Seahawks visiting the San Francisco 49ers Monday, Jimmy Garoppolo decided to take part in “So You Think You Can Dance,” NFL style.

Dak:

Jimmy G:

Kirk Cousins may have downed Dak and the Cowboys but don’t think his moves compete with his fellow quarterbacks.

 

Heroes and Goats: Cowboys staff chewing cud while passing game grazes

The Dallas Cowboys were almost saved by a few heroes against the Minnesota Vikings, but there were too many bad performances to get the win.

The Dallas Cowboys bungled away another game where the team killed its chances of walking away victorious. This time, it was a 28-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings has put a playoff run in jeopardy with the tough, upcoming schedule.

Here are the heroes and goats from a disappointing Week 10 loss that dropped the club’s regular-season record to 5-4.

Hero: Dak Prescott

(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The only thing the QB didn’t do was put on a cape. Prescott tried to rescue the Cowboys on a night where the play calling put the offense in a bind for 60 minutes. Long second and third down conversions were easily picked up by Prescott, who threw the ball well all game. Prescott carved up the Vikings, throwing for 397 yards and three scores.

Goats: The rush defense

It was a sad performance from the run defense, who was gashed by RB’s Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. The defense gave up 153 yards rushing and was bullied for most of the game. The most embarrassing part was the drive where the Vikings ran it 10 straight times, leading to the game-clinching score.

Hero: Amari Cooper

(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

Cooper continues to impress, despite his numerous ailments. The stud WR caught 11 passes for 147 yards and a score, and Cooper’s footwork along the sidelines was silly. Cooper played at a high level to help the Cowboys’ offense moving the chains and coming back from an early deficit.

Goat: Chidobe Awuzie

It hasn’t been a good stretch for the third-year CB and his shotty play against the Vikings continued. Awuzie remains lost in coverage and still has MAJOR issues with ball location. Awuzie’s poor play on the two-point conversion to Kyle Rudolph was a big part of stunting the comeback.

Hero: Randall Cobb

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

It was Cobb’s first 100 yard game for the Cowboys and he scored on a beautiful 22-yard strike from Prescott. Cobb made some big catches to keep drives alive after getting behind on the down and distances.

Goat: Sean Lee

As good as he played last week, Lee got smoked against the Vikings. Lee was beat twice for touchdowns and got washed out on too many screen plays.

Hero: Robert Quinn

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

The veteran DE continued his stellar season with his seventh sack when he took down Vikings QB Kirk Cousins in the second quarter. It also netted Quinn a cool $800,000-plus bonus.

Goats: The coaching staff

We can sit here and talk about not being prepared to start the game, but that’s foolish. The coaches don’t drop passes or miss tackles. What we can blame them for is their decision making and stubbornness.

There is no reason to continue to bash your head into a brick wall; the running game wasn’t working, and the passing game was on fire. Yet here was Kellen Moore’s play calling on first down:

The Cowboys still had a chance to win the game late before two running calls essentially killed Dallas’ chances of winning the game. The play calling was a big issue in the loss.

You can chat with or follow Ben on twitter @BenGrimaldi

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Cowboys won’t question play calling; Garrett says ‘we had options’

While the team wouldn’t cast doubt on the playcalls in the Week 10 loss, coach Jason Garrett revealed more about their ill-fated late runs.

From the moment Kellen Moore was named the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, the questions started. Who would actually be calling the plays? What plays would they use? Would it be all flea-flickers and Statues of Liberty as Moore reached back into his Boise State bag of tricks? Or would Moore just trot out the same predictably ineffective Scott Linehan/Jason Garrett plays that were already in place?

In the wake of a disheartening loss to the Minnesota Vikings, playcalling is once again the focus. The Cowboys were positioned to pull off a dramatic comeback after being behind for most of the game, with the ball deep in enemy territory and down by four points with under two minutes to play. That’s when the passing game that had found success all night was inexplicably shelved for consecutive runs by Ezekiel Elliott that lost three yards and wasted almost 50 seconds of precious time. The sequence put the Cowboys in a fourth-down situation where a pass was expected by everyone, including Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks, who tipped the throw away and ended the Dallas drive 14 yards away from the end zone.

So who’s to blame? In a phone interview on Monday morning, coach Jason Garrett made it clear who’s selecting the plays.

“Kellen’s calling the game,” Garrett told 105.3 The Fan, “and in that situation, it’s 2nd-and-2. And he felt like he had a good opportunity against a favorable box to run the ball in those situations. On each of those plays, we had options beyond just the run. And unfortunately, we weren’t able to convert. We got into that 4th-down situation; we didn’t convert that.”

Garrett’s answer was interesting in several ways. First, it confirmed that Moore is the one actually dialing up the plays off the big laminated sheet, or at least the majority of them. Garrett still retains oversight, not just philosophically, but even on the sideline as the game is being played.

“We just try to communicate as an offensive staff throughout the ballgame,” Garrett explained, “and Kellen’s done a great job for us all year long. And I certainly have input throughout the ballgame. Situationally, I have input about how to handle certain situations. That’s how we’ve operated all year long, and that’s how we operated last night, and unfortunately we didn’t get it done.”

But the second part of Garrett’s answer is also telling. Quarterback Dak Prescott “had options beyond just the run,” according to the coach.

He had said as much in his postgame press conference late Sunday night.

“There are a number of different options on that play based on what they play,” Garrett told reporters. “If they heat you up, you have some answers. If they play a certain kind of zone, you have some answers. If they play man-to-man, you have some answers. So we wanted to give Dak some different options, depending on what they were going to play on a critical down situation.”

After the game, Elliott said of the play, “It was just an RPO [run-pass option]. It was a give read. There really wasn’t anywhere to go.”

That was the story all game, as Elliott finished with a mere 47 rushing yards on 20 attempts. With Prescott finding far more success through the air- 397 yards and three touchdowns- the obvious question swirling around Cowboys Nation is: why not just let Prescott continue to lay waste with his military-grade flamethrower instead of continually coming back to a pea-shooter that had been firing blanks all night?

It’s a matter of strategy. Some coaches tend to seek out an opponent’s weakness and then pull out whatever tool from their bag will work best to exploit that weakness. Others seem to want to establish an identity and then hammer it home, whatever it is… and whether it’s working or not. It feels like Garrett is firmly entrenched in the latter category. He wants the Cowboys to be a tough, physical football team who will run it right down anybody’s throat. So he does. Even if the passing game is doing all the damage in a certain matchup. It’s “we’re-going-to-do-this-because-it’s-who-we-are” versus “we’re-going-to-do-that-because-it’s-working.”

Prescott put it up 46 times Sunday night, Garrett explained on The Fan, to just 22 rushing attempts. He clearly wanted more balance, because in his world, balance is just objectively good. Maybe, but most who watched this particular game felt like one or two more throws (and one or two fewer runs) would have actually won it for Dallas.

Prescott was careful on Sunday night when asked if he wished Moore and Garrett had kept the ball in his hands with a pass on every play of the ill-fated second-to-last drive. “It’s safe to say I’ll throw the ball every play of the game,” Prescott smiled. “That’s the obvious part, right? So, for sure.”

But as Garrett explained during his radio interview, Prescott did have at least the option to throw on the run plays in question. So for fans looking to place blame after a difficult defeat, it seems there needs to be some to go around: some for Moore for calling the plays, some for Garrett for not stepping in and suggesting something else based on the situation, and some for Prescott for the option he finally went with as the plays unfolded.

“That’s the way we evaluate everything,” Garrett said Monday. “We’ll go in today- win, lose, or draw- and we say, ‘Okay, what was good about the game? Okay, let’s continue to build on that. What were areas that we as coaches need to do a better job? Maybe we didn’t communicate it well enough, maybe we didn’t practice it well enough, maybe it just wasn’t executed. I’m not talking about those specific plays, but that’s generally how you approach it.”

How to divvy up the blame for the Vikings loss may be up for debate, but one thing that was unanimous was the players’ reactions to any queries casting aspersions on the team’s playcalling or the coaches responsible.

“I’m not going to question the playcalling,” Prescott said. “There were opportunities; we’ve just got to do better and execute those plays, simple as that. And every guy in that locker room would say that.”

Wide receiver Randall Cobb did in his postgame comments. “I don’t call the plays. That’s not my job. My job is to make the plays and execute the plays that are called. The play that’s called is the play that we go out there and run, and we’ve got to make it happen on the field.”

“We would never question Kellen’s calls,” tight end Jason Witten said at his locker Sunday night. “That’s been a good run for us in third-and-short, kind of spreading them out this season, and kind of find[ing] the soft spot. Zeke does such a good job, Dak, they’re kind of used to running that type of play… That’s been a good play for us. I’m not surprised that he went back to that.”

Deep down, Cowboys fans weren’t surprised either. It’s just that they wanted to be. Because for all the early questions about the new-look Dallas offense and the glimpses of brilliance that peek through now and again, when the team had a do-or-die shot at punching it in, the answers they got were the same ones they’d been hearing for years.

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Even in defeat, Dak Prescott proved he is an elite NFL quarterback

He’s not the best QB in the league, but no players gives you more options.

Cowboys fans did not wake up Monday morning feeling very good about their football team after a frustrating 28-24 loss to the Vikings on Sunday night. But the knowledge that they have one of the very best quarterbacks in the NFL should help soothe that pain.

Even with Cowboys coaches doing everything in their power to blow the game, Dak Prescott was the story of the night. At least he should be. His numbers weren’t overly impressive: He completed 28-of-46 passes (60.9%) for 347 yards, three touchdowns and one pick. On a day where Lamar Jackson put up a perfect passer rating and took a Bengals player’s soul right on the field in a blowout win, what Prescott did might go under-appreciated by the media. That should not be the case. For me, it was the night Dak established himself as one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks.

It was as complete a performance as I’ve seen from a quarterback since … well, maybe ever. There were highlight-reel throws downfield, shrewd pre-snap checks and protection changes, plays that required Prescott to exhaust his progressions while avoiding hits in the pocket and plenty examples of his ability to create outside of structure when a play breaks down. I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say there are only two or three quarterbacks in the league capable of putting together such a comprehensive display of quarterbacking. It was an elite performance, which should not come as a shock since Prescott has been playing at an elite level all season — and for the majority of his short career.

That may sound reactionary, but Prescott has now played about three-and-a-half seasons in the NFL. He was an MVP candidate after an amazing rookie campaign. Things didn’t change over the first half of his sophomore season until his supporting cast was hit hard by injuries and a suspension to Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott was still playing well but his production had fallen off and that continued on into the 2018 season until the Amari Cooper trade reinvigorated the Cowboys offense. Since that move, Dallas has gotten MVP-level production from its quarterback.

So were talking about a 40-game sample size of Dak playing like an elite quarterback, including this entire season where he’s led the Cowboys to the league’s best offense, per Football Outsiders DVOA. He’s also leading the league in Ben Baldwin’s DAKOTA metric, which combines Expected Points Added and Completion Percentage over Expectation into one composite stat. He trails Russell Wilson in ESPN’s QBR by 0.1 points — and there’s a decent chance he ends the week on top with the Seahawks taking on one the league’s best pass defenses, the 49ers, on Monday night.

Prescott’s name is being left out of the MVP discussion because we’re still fixated on QB WINZ in 2019 and the Cowboys are sitting at 5-4 after the loss to Minnesota. It doesn’t help that there are still people out there who believe Ezekiel Elliott is the most important player on the offense and that the offensive line is still the dominant unit we last saw in 2016.

Last night’s performance should have convinced most people that none of those factors can reasonably be used to argue that Dak isn’t worthy of consideration for the MVP award. Let’s address them one-by-one…

  1. Prescott’s QBR for the night was 85.0. ESPN’s stat is designed to give you a rough estimate of how often you can expect a team to win based on the quarterback’s performance. So Prescott’s performance was good enough to win 85% of games. The loss — like most of Dallas’ losses this season — was not on him.
  2. This may have been Elliott’s worst game of the season. On 20 plays, Elliott produced an average EPA of -0.36. That means the Cowboys lost about 7.2 points on his touches alone. In a game decided by four points, that was the difference. Meanwhile, Prescott’s 48 plays added 27.36 points on Sunday night. The Cowboys scored 24 points.
  3. Prescott finished the night with the highest average time to throw of Week 10, per Next Gen Stats. The offensive line did its part, sure, but the quarterback did a lot of the work. Prescott was tinkering with the protections all night and navigated the pocket to avoid pressure. He bought himself all that time and capitalized on it when it was available. That’s a big accomplishment against a Mike Zimmer-coached defense.

Prescott was brilliant all night but two throws stood out to me above the rest. Both were gorgeous dimes that would have dropped jaws on their own, but it was the process leading up to the throws that were most impressive. The first was Dak’s fadeaway touchdown pass to Randall Cobb on a free play.

The throw is fit into the tightest of windows. That’s not an exaggeration. It was literally the tightest window we’ve seen on a touchdown pass all season.

But that play doesn’t happen if Prescott doesn’t call an audible before the ball is snapped. The Vikings are sending a six-man pressure, and Dak checks into the perfect play to beat it. I mean, this play has all of the characteristics of the ones we typically see from Canton-bound quarterbacks. You have the Manning-style change at the line of scrimmage. The Rodgers-esque awareness after the Vikings player jumps offsides. And then Brees-level precision on the throw. That is elite quarterback play.

That wasn’t even my favorite Dak play of the night. That distinction goes to this impossible throw to Cooper on third-and-12.

The Cowboys line holds up against the Vikings rush but, like Tom Brady, Prescott has to climb the pocket while looking for an open receiver. Cooper, who is tightly guarded, will have to do and Prescott lofts a perfectly-placed pass to his receiver for a first down. I still can’t believe he made that throw.

Prescott has been putting this high-level play on film all season and, yet, he still isn’t getting enough credit for developing into a complete quarterback. He’s not the best quarterback in the league, but I don’t know if there’s another one who opens up a playbook quite like he does. Prescott is accurate, poised in the pocket and comfortable outside of it, he’s got a strong arm that allows him to make any throw and he has total command of the Cowboys offense — before and after the snap. The Cowboys have never fully committed to it, but Prescott is also a factor in the run game when used on option plays.

There’s nothing you CAN’T do with Prescott behind center.

For whatever reason, the Cowboys have let him get to this deep into the final year of his rookie contract. That’s looking like a bigger and more costly mistake by the week. Many people — including myself — scoffed at Prescott’s reported contract demands of around $30 million a season. Now he’s the one doing the scoffing because that price just keeps going up, and Cowboys fans should be happy when Jerry Jones finally decides to pay it. There’s no such thing as overpaying for an elite quarterback.

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Cowboys’ 7 plays that changed the game in 28-24 loss to Vikings

A look back at the 7 biggest plays from the Cowboys’ 28-24 loss to the Vikings using EPA and WP metrics from nflscrapR.

The Dallas Cowboys might have suffered their worst loss of the season against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. The final score was 28-24, but the biggest takeaway from the game was the plethora of questionable play-calls and mismanaged opportunities. The Cowboys were clearly the better offensive team from a passing standpoint. However, the rushing attack they heavily relied on in the past was a non-factor against the Vikings, and ultimately, it might have been the driving force behind the daunting loss.

It was a game that featured plenty of explosive plays from both offenses. Here are the biggest plays that stood out in the game as measured by Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability with data via nflscrapR. EPA measures the value of a given play based on down, distance to first downs, field position and time remaining in the game.

The Plays

No. 1: Kirk Cousins pass short right to Dalvin Cook for 27 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 42% -> 35%

The Vikings’ first big play of the game came on simple screen pass to Cook. He managed to turn the short pass into an explosive 27 yard catch and run. Cousins was not asked to throw deep against the Cowboys, his average pass on Sunday traveled seven yards through the air. Instead he relied on Cook to generate yards after the catch. Cook totaled 109 yards after the catch and his ability to break tackles and create extra yardage was crucial for the Vikings.

This play would end with a facemask penalty from cornerback Chidobe Awuzie. The resulting catch and 15-yard penalty gave the Vikings field position at the Cowboys’ 10-yard line. They would eventually end the drive with a score, putting them up 7-0 early.

No. 2: Cousins pass short left to Cook for 30 yards

EPA: 2.1. DAL WP Shift: 21% -> 16%

Once again Cook showed why he is one of the best running backs in the NFL. He turned another short screen pass into a huge gain, this time for 30 yards. And much like his first big play this one also ended with a penalty for the Cowboys. A 14-yard roughing the passer call on DeMarcus Lawrence would result in a 44-yard gain for the Vikings.

The Vikings would end the drive with another touchdown. It was tight end Kyle Rudolph that would pick up his second score of the game with linebacker Sean Lee in coverage. The score was now 14-0, but the Cowboys have developed a reputation this season as a team that rallies later in games. This game was no different.

No. 3: Cousins sacked for a loss of 9 yards by Robert Quinn

EPA: -2.3. DAL WP Shift: 13% ->17%

To start the second quarter the Cowboys found themselves in a dire situation. The defense had struggled to contain Cook throughout the first quarter and they desperately needed a stop on third down. So it is no surprise that Quinn came up big for his team when it mattered most. The team needed momentum and Quinn was able to give it to them following this sack.

No. 4: Prescott pass deep right to Amari Cooper for 20 yards

EPA: 2.5. DAL WP Shift: 14% -> 19%

Due to some questionable play-calling on early downs the Cowboys faced plenty of third-and-long situations. Luckily for the Cowboys the combination of Prescott and Cooper has turned into on of the most dependable QB-WR tandems in the NFL. The duo consistently lifted the team in these tight situations, and on this play Cooper displayed his elite awareness skills with a toe drag catch.

No. 5: Prescott pass short left to Michael Gallup for 23 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.9. DAL WP Shift: 19% -> 27%

The Cowboys’ offense finally got back on track in the second quarter. After an impressive 20-yard catch from Cooper, it was Gallup that would give the Cowboys their first score of the game. The Vikings were in zone coverage here, but it was a well designed offensive play that had linebacker Eric Kendricks covering Gallup down the middle of the field for the easy score.

No. 6: Prescott pass deep right to Randall Cobb for 22 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 4.4. DAL WP Shift: 36% -> 49%

Late in the first half the Cowboy were presented with a scoring opportunity. From the 22-yard line the expected points from this part of the field was 2.6. Even so, the Cowboys were not looking to enter half-time with a field goal. The team would even the score at 14-14 on a free play as the defense was called for an offside penalty.

Prescott’s improvisation skills came in handy on the explosive pass play and Cobb showed great focus in making the catch. Cobb had his best game as a Cowboy as he accounted for 106 yards, six receptions and a touchdown.

No. 7: Prescott pass deep right to Cooper for 12 yards TOUCHDOWN

EPA: 2.4. DAL WP Shift: 44% -> 51%

The duo of Prescott and Cooper connected on plenty of immaculate catches on the night, but this one by far was the most impressive. This play was a pass with some jet-action from RB Tony Pollard. Prescott rolled out to his right as Cooper ran a comeback route. The ball placement essentially left Cooper in a spot that was impossible to defend. But the accuracy from Prescott was also uncanny.

Where do Cowboys go from here?

It was a tough loss for the Cowboys as Prescott put on another MVP-caliber performance. They lost to a good team, but it did not have to be that way. There were plenty of opportunities to seize the game, but it was the coaching staff that came up short with a game plan that featured plenty of runs on first-and-10. All night the Cowboys had struggled to establish the run. Passing on the other hand was a completely different story. Much like they have all season, the Cowboys have possessed on of the best passing offenses in the league through 10 weeks of football.

Right now the biggest question marks come from the Cowboys’ defensive side of the ball. What has been concerning is the team’s never ending battle  against the run despite being at full strength on the defensive front. Even the pass defense has suffered as of late, as Awuzie has failed to take a major leap in his game now in his third year in the league. Overall, the Cowboys do have the talent and the right personnel to compete for a Super Bowl, but reality has not lined up with the expectations for the 2019 season.

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11 Takeaways: Cowboys run narrative into ground, pass on path to victory

The Cowboys yet again failed to get the job done against another top-team, falling 28-24 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Cowboys can’t seem to do themselves any favors, once again starting slow and digging themselves into a hole which ultimately did them in. They were down two touchdowns before the first quarter ended, but managed to briefly take the lead 21-20 halfway through the third quarter.

Unfortunately, they yet again found themselves on the wrong end of a shootout against one of the better teams in the league. Dallas fell, 28-24, to the Minnesota Vikings, dropping their record to 5-4 on the season. It was a game they rarely looked like things would go their way.

It was over when . . .

. . . Eric Kendricks broke up Dak Prescott’s attempt on 4th and 5 from the Minnesota 14. The Cowboys looked to be in the catbird seat, having drove from their own six to the Minnesota 11, but two Ezekiel Elliott runs pushed them back, and against the wall. Unfortunately, Prescott couldn’t bail them out, after playing so well for the entire game.

Game balls

WR Amari Cooper

It’s impossible to overstate how much Cooper transformed this offense. He had another monster night, catching 11 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown. He was able to showcase everything against the Vikings secondary, but his dramatic sideline toe-taps were the plays that really stood out.

QB Dak Prescott

The best season of Prescott’s career took another step, as he put up a valiant effort in yet another comeback that fell just short. He took it upon himself to throw Dallas back into the game, fearlessly throwing into tight windows and converting third down after third down.

In the end, he threw for 397 yards on 28 of 46 pass attempts, three touchdowns, and one interception (on the last play of the game, a heave into the end zone). The results haven’t been there yet, but these moments and games will soon pay off in the last half of the season.

WR Randall Cobb

It’s been a tough go for the former Packer, but Cobb was able to put together a really nice game, joining Cooper in eclipsing 100 receiving yards (106 on six catches), a feat he accomplished for the first time this season. His beautiful 22-yard touchdown grab at the end of the second quarter made up for the many near-misses that have marred the first half of his season.

Key stat: 2.35

Ezekiel Elliott entered the game averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry this season, yet registered only 2.35 YPC against Minnesota. That didn’t stop the Cowboys from running him 20 times however. The run game was atrocious and entirely unhelpful, seemingly costing the team big, especially considering how well they were able to throw the ball. As a team, they recorded only 50 rushing yards, the second-lowest total of the season (45 in Week 4 vs New Orleans).

Quick takes:

  • As poorly as the Cowboys ran the ball, it was the opposite story for Minnesota. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook rumbled all over the Dallas defense, reminiscent of C.J. Anderson’s performance against them in the playoffs last year. In total, the Vikings ran for 156 total yards, Cook responsible for 97 of them.If only Dallas had a highly-drafted defensive tackle to plug the middle of the defensive line.
  • The Cowboys possess one of the more unique weapons in the NFL in the leg of K Brett Maher. Unfortunately tonight, it seemed to cost them points, as Jason Garrett decided to try a 57-yard field goal that missed badly. It set up Minnesota with a short field, who had no problems marching 53-yards on their first drive of the game to go up 7-0. Situational football has been a problem for the Cowboys this season, and this was yet another example of this team holding itself back..
  • Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph only had 14 receiving yards, but he was a huge difference maker, scoring two touchdowns and picking up a two-point conversion. His success against the Cowboys secondary was unfortunately unsurprising and predictable, as they’ve seemed to have a lot of trouble containing TEs this season.

  • The Dallas offense converted more than half of their third down opportunities (9 of 15, 60%), which normally leads to success. Unfortunately, the Vikings essentially matched them, converting 8 of 14 third downs (57%).
  • Perhaps the most frustrating and inexplicable moment of the game occurred when WR Tavon Austin signaled for a fair catch despite having tons of real estate in front of him at the end of the game. Minnesota was giving the ball back to the Cowboys, punting from their own 10-yard line with 24 seconds left. If there was ever a time for for Austin to have his signature moment with Dallas, this seemed like it. Apparently, the coaches didn’t let him try.

  • The Cowboys are now tied for first place in the NFC East at 5-4. They’ll try to again separate themselves from the Philadelphia against another NFC North opponent next week in the Detroit Lions, who are 3-5-1.