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The Washington Commanders (2-3) and Atlanta Falcons (3-2) meet Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Commanders vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Commanders failed to cover the spread as 6-point home favorites in a 40-20 loss vs. the Chicago Bears Oct. 5 as the Over (44) hit. Washington is 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 3 games.
The Falcons failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites in a 21-19 win vs. the Houston Texans last Sunday as the Under (42.5) cashed. QB Desmond Ridder improved to 5-0 in games he’s started at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The last time these teams met, the Commanders covered as 3.5-point home favorites with a 19-13 win as the Under (40) hit Nov. 27.
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Commanders at Falcons odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 11:50 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Commanders +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Falcons -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Commanders +2.5 (-110) | Falcons -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 42.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Commanders at Falcons key injuries
Commanders
- CB Christian Holmes (hamstring) out
- DE Efe Obada (knee) questionable
Falcons
- None
Commanders at Falcons picks and predictions
Prediction
Falcons 20, Commanders 17
Moneyline
The FALCONS (-145) are 3-0 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this season, and Ridder has shown to be much more comfortable when playing at home — he also went 26-0 in home games he started in college.
The Commanders started the season with 2 come-from-behind wins vs. the Arizona Cardinals and at the Denver Broncos, but those victories seem less impressive now that we know how bad those teams actually are.
The Falcons may be dead last in yards per play on the road (3.9) but are 12th when playing at home (5.6).
BET FALCONS (-145) to get the win vs. Washington’s bottom-3 defense.
Against the spread
The Falcons’ last 2 wins have been by an average margin of 1.5 points per game. While Atlanta is a good bet to win straight up, its offense seems to struggle to beat teams by a field goal or more.
PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.
Over/Under
The Under is 4-1 in Falcons games this season. While Ridder has been a much better QB at home, the offense is still not dynamic enough to blow teams out or score 30+ points. This should look very similar to the Falcons’ last game, with the offense doing just enough to win in a low-scoring affair.
BET UNDER 42.5 (-110).
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