The Cowboys had some bad luck in one-score games in 2019, though their 1-6 record wasn’t even the worst in the league. However, they were the team most affected by it, finishing just one game out of the playoffs despite these failures.
At least four of the six close losses left Dallas with the bitter taste in their mouth that comes with the would-have could-have should-haves.
As discussed in PFF's debut of their WAR metric (https://t.co/9aZnBJpBSZ), games decided by 8 points or fewer can be treated as half-wins (shoutout @JuMosq)
I took a look at what 2019 NFL records would look like if we adjusted team's W/L up or down using net half-wins/losses pic.twitter.com/eUQ2IT19ee
— BradOTC (@BradOTC) February 10, 2020
Against the New Orleans Saints, the Cowboys had three possessions in the fourth quarter trailing by only two points. The New York Jets loss was an unmitigated disaster but the team was still only a successful two-point conversion away from forcing overtime. Dallas found themselves inside the red-zone with under a minute to go trailing by four against the Minnesota Vikings, only for a failed speed-option to submarine that drive. The Patriots loss featured a Jason Garrett special in which he settled for a field goal instead of opting to try for a game tying touchdown.
If any of those four games had gone differently, the Cowboys may have found themselves in the playoffs, though it also may have resulted in the return of a coach that had long out-stayed his welcome.
According to Justis Moqueda’s formula, the 8-8 Cowboys were really a 10 or 11-win football team in 2019.
In 2018, the Cowboys were very fortunate in close games, winning 9 of 12 games, including the final seven, which were decided by 8 points or less.
Fortunately, the pendulum swings both ways, and the Cowboys are the shining beacon proving Mosqueda’s theory where teams who have a positive or negative ledger of five or more results will go the other direction.
“Last year, the teams we worried could fall off were the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers, who both made the 2017 playoffs with a combined 24-8 record. In 2018, they both missed the playoffs. The teams to watch out for in 2019 are the Los Angeles Rams and the Dallas Cowboys.”
Welp.
In 2018, Dallas was +6, and in 2019 their win total decreased by two. In 2019, Dallas was -5, so their 2020 win total should increase. According to Mosqueda’s research, the bounce back is slightly higher than the fall.
Teams which improve do so by an average of 4.6 wins. Teams which decline do so by an average of 4.2 losses.
According to this close-game theory, Dallas is staring a 12-4 or 13-3 campaign in the face. If you’re a betting man and staring at the general predictions for the Cowboys of 8.5 wins in over-under wagers, well, grab your hammer.
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