Coming into the 2022 NFL season, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had two problems to solve. The first was the mastodon in the room: How would Mahomes, head coach Andy Reid, and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy create explosive plays in the passing game without Tyreek Hill, who had been traded to the Dolphins?
The second, and perhaps more important question: How could Mahomes, Reid, and Bieniemy transcend Mahomes’ issues against two-deep coverage? Those issues were discussed ad nauseam during and after the 2021 season, but for good reason. Last season, including the playoffs, Mahomes faced two-deep coverage (Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6) on a league-high 389 dropbacks, completing 215 of 332 passes for 2,532 yards, 1,401 air yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 85.6, which ranked 10th in the league.
This problem reared its head especially clearly in Kansas City’s 27-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship game. The Bengals famously dropped seven and eight defenders into coverage over and over, especially in the second half, and Mahomes was lost against it — in that game against two-deep coverage, he completed 11 of 17 passes for 90 yards, 41 air yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 53.6.
With Hill out of the picture and every defense prepping to stop Mahomes with the one thing that could consistently stop him, you’d imagine that Mahomes would see an equal amount of those coverages, and that he’d be similarly flummoxed by them.
Interestingly enough, neither has proven to be true. Mahomes has faced two-deep coverage on just 57 snaps this season, 17th-most in the NFL. And he’s ripped it to shreds in a relative sense. Mahomes has completed 34 of 50 passes for 425 yards, 260 air yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.5 — third-best in the league, behind Geno Smith of the Seahawks, and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles.
This Sunday, Mahomes and the Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills, who are eager for revenge after last year’s divisional round loss, which was one of the more insane football games in recent memory.
This season, the Bills are tied with… the Chiefs in playing the most snaps of Cover-2 with 105 opponent attempts, and in those coverages, Buffalo has allowed 65 completions for 550 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 66.8.
So, a great test for Mahomes, and his ability to beat what once has been his Kryptonite. How has Mahomes learned to get past it so far and so well this season?
(All metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise indicated).
