Alabama’s statistical chances of making, winning CFP skyrocket, according to data firm FiveThirtyEight

The numbers are trending in the right direction for the Crimson Tide!

The Alabama Crimson Tide earned another win for the 2021 college football season, and extends the active win streak over Tennessee for another year. So, how does this impact their chances of making the College Football Playoff?

The Crimson Tide were able to make the move up to No. 3 and pass Oklahoma in the latest polls. However, will that hold up when the official CFP committee starts making their own rankings?

FiveThirtyEight, a data firm, reveals the updated  statistical likelihood of Alabama making their way back into the top-four to make the playoff and compete for national championship No. 19.

According to the numbers, Nick Saban and Alabama have a 38% chance to win the SEC title, a 52% chance to make the playoff and a 22% chance to win the national championship.

All of the aforementioned statistics improved from their previous findings last week.

Roll Tide Wire will continue to cover the Crimson Tide as they continue to play throughout the 2021 college football season.

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow AJ Spurr on Twitter @SpurrFM.

CFP TRACKER: How are Alabama’s playoff hopes following Week 7?

How do Alabama’s playoff hopes look after Week 7?

Alabama went into Starkville needing a win and absolutely dominated. They played a complete game through all four quarters and finished off Mississippi State by a score of 49-9.

The Crimson Tide’s playoff hopes still hinge on a complete performance each time out in the second half of the season, as no team with two losses has ever made the College Football Playoff.

While the official CFP rankings have yet to be released, the field is already beginning to shape itself. Alabama came into Week 7 ranked at No. 5 in both the AP Poll and the USA TODAY AFCA Coaches Poll.

Sitting right outside of the top four, prior to Week 7, the Crimson Tide definitely hoped for a little bit of help to get back into the field, and on Saturday they received that help.

The No. 2 team in the country entering Week 7, the Iowa Hawkeyes, would end up getting blown out by unranked Purdue. That score ended in a lopsided 24-7 victory for the Boilermakers.

The Crimson Tide now sits at No. 4 in both the AP Poll and the USA TODAY Coaches Poll. 

Taking care of business from here on out will all but guarantee a playoff spot, but getting too far ahead of ourselves is known to upset Nick Saban. 

The teams sitting just ahead of the Crimson Tide are Georgia, Cincinnati and Oklahoma.

One game at a time, folks, but the rest of the regular season certainly looks favorable in terms of the quality of the remaining opponents. 

Stay tuned to Roll Tide Wire for continued coverage of the Alabama Crimson Tide!

Contact/Follow us @RollTideWire on Twitter, and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Alabama news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Layne Gerbig on Twitter @LayneG_29.

What CFP rankings would look like if released after Week 5

What would the CFP rankings look like if released today?

The College Football Playoff committee does not shy away from discussing the importance of having an elite resume when deciding a team’s ranking.

And now that we have made it through five weeks of the 2021 college football season, some teams’ resumes are beginning to separate themselves from others.

There’s a clear understanding which two programs belong at the top – Georgia and Alabama – but which should be No. 1 and which should be No. 2 is not certain.

After those two teams, not many would dispute the existence of a rather large gap. I’m talking really large.

Here we give a look at how we would rank the top 10 teams if the College Football Playoff rankings came out after an exciting Week 5.

The initial round of rankings will be released on Nov. 2.

SEC football power rankings after Week 2

SEC football power rankings after Week 2

Week 2 in the SEC saw some pretty good matchups and some very impressive wins – looking at you, Arkansas.

Only one battle took place between two SEC teams over the weekend, Kentucky vs Missouri, which UK won 35-28.

Aside from Tennessee losing to Pittsburgh, every SEC team won its non-conference matchup in Week 2.

Here’s a look at our updated SEC power rankings after the second week of action.

CBS Sports releases CFB power rankings with surprise top-5 team

CBS Sports releases CFB power rankings with surprise top-5 team

Until the College Football Playoff rankings are released in four weeks, fans of college football will need some form of ranking system to ease their mind and get excited about.

Whether it be the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll, the AP Top-25 or power rankings released by various different outlets, there’s no shortage of rankings to hold us over until the official rankings come out.

Georgia, by the way, checks in at No. 2 in the Coaches Poll and the AP Top-25 and holds the same spot in a majority of power rankings.

After a Week 1 that saw a bunch of top ranked teams look rather average, Dennis Dodd of CBSSports released his college football power rankings.

Below you can see his top-five teams. No. 5 was a surprise to me, but I have no issue with it at all.

Click here to see his full top-25.

USA TODAY Coaches Poll released: Where’s Georgia after beating Clemson?

USA TODAY Coaches Poll released: Where’s Georgia?

Week 1 of college football is in the books. We had some thrillers, some defensive battles and some offensive explosions over the Labor Day weekend. The best game of the weekend goes to Notre Dame and FSU, who met Sunday night in Tallahassee. The Irish escaped in overtime but this game had no shortage of incredible storylines.

Read: McKenzie Milton made his long-awaited return to college football, helps Florida State force OT vs. Notre Dame

Following the first week of action, USA TODAY Sports released its weekly Coaches Poll. Georgia, which was ranked No. 5 in the preseason poll, moved to No. 2 after beating Clemson 10-3 in Charlotte. Clemson dropped to No. 6.

See the full rankings below:

Full USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll:

Rank Team Points Change
1 Alabama 1,624
2 Georgia 1,537 +3
3 Ohio State 1,491 +1
4 Oklahoma 1,397 -1
5 Texas A&M 1,334 +1
6 Clemson 1,239 -4
7 Notre Dame 1.197
8 Cincinnati 1.113 +2
9 Florida 1,058 +2
10 Iowa State 1,057 -2
11 Oregon 920 +1
12 Iowa 914 +6
13 Penn State 872 +7
14 USC 828
15 Texas 653 +4
16 UCLA 538 +26
17 Wisconsin 359 -2
18 Utah 294 +8
19 Coastal Carolina 289 +5
20 Ole Miss 285 +5
21 Virginia Tech 274 +19
22 North Carolina 252 -13
23 Oklahoma State 243 -1
24 Miami (Fl) 186 -8
25 Arizona State 181 +3

Dropped from the rankings:

No. 13 LSU, No. 17 Indiana, No. 21 Washington, No. 23 ULL

Others receiving votes:

Auburn 123; Michigan 99; Louisiana State 95; NC State 81; Liberty 78; Brigham Young 65; Indiana 58; Texas Christian 49; Central Florida 48; Florida State 34; Michigan State 33; Kentucky 28; Pittsburgh 20; UL Lafayette 19; Kansas State 19; Boston College 19; Appalachian State 15; Southern Methodist 14; Rutgers 11; Arkansas 11; Maryland 9; Tennessee 7; Nevada 7; Fresno State 7; Army 7; Tulane 6; Virginia 5; San Jose State 5; Missouri 5; Ball State 5; Marshall 3; UAB 2; Air Force 2; Charlotte 1.

ESPN releases college football power rankings after Week 1

ESPN releases updated college football power rankings

Aside from showdown between the Clemson Tigers and the Georgia Bulldogs, it was not the most exciting of opening weeks.

Here’s a super fast recap:

  • Georgia defeated Clemson 10-3.
  • Alabama looked like, well, Alabama, in a 44-13 blowout over Miami.
  • Ohio State and Oklahoma actually both struggled in wins over unranked teams.
  • Texas A&M was dominant against Kent State.
  • Iowa State only beat unranked Northern Iowa by six.
  • Penn State took down Wisconsin in a top-25 battle.
  • 10th ranked UNC fell to Virginia Tech.

After the first week of action, ESPN released its power rankings.

Below are the top 10 teams according to ESPN:

10. Florida Gators

Florida Gators wide receiver Ja’Markis Weston (82) makes a tackle on Florida Atlantic Owls wide receiver Lajohntay Wester (83) on a punt during a game against the Florida Atlantic Owls at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville Fla. Sept. 4, 2021.

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9. Notre Dame

8. Oregon

Sep 4, 2021; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Anthony Brown (13) celebrates scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Fresno State Bulldogs at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won the game 31-24. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

7. Clemson

Without the threat of a consistent running game, Georgia’s defense teed off on D.J. Uiagalelei and blitzed him early and often. Clemson’s offensive line also played poorly against the Bulldogs’ deep defensive line.

6. Cincinnati

Cincinnati Bearcats linebacker Darrian Beavers (0) hits Miami Redhawks quarterback AJ Mayer (10) in the second half of the NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Cincinnati Bearcats defeated Miami Redhawks 49-14.

Cincinnati Bearcats Miami Redhawks

NEXT:TOP-FIVE

What College Football Playoff rankings would look like if released today

What CFP rankings would look like if released today

The official College Football Playoff rankings don’t come out for four weeks, giving things time to play out before releasing the real thing.

But Georgia just beat Clemson in the season-opener, so if you think we’re going to sit back and just wait it out without making projections of our own you would be incorrect.

Aside from the Week 1 showdown between the Tigers and the Bulldogs, it was not the most exciting of opening weeks.

  • Alabama looked like, well, Alabama, in a 44-13 blowout over Miami.
  • Ohio State and Oklahoma actually both struggled in wins over unranked teams.
  • Texas A&M was dominant against Kent State.
  • Iowa State only beat unranked Northern Iowa by six.
  • Penn State took down Wisconsin in a top-25 battle.
  • 10th ranked UNC fell to Virginia Tech.

So, if the rankings were released after Week 1’s action, what would all of the above mean for the College Football Playoff standings?

Here we give a look at how we would rank the top-10 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings after the first week of action:

(And yes, I know Notre Dame has not yet played against Florida State. We’ll update accordingly if needed).

College Football Playoff Rankings: Projecting All 28 Teams 2014-2020

28 teams that made the four-team tournament in the College Football Playoff era. How would the committee probably rank them all?

28 teams that made the four-team tournament in the College Football Playoff era. How would the committee probably rank them all?


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Photo Credits: (Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Deshaun Watson) John David Mercer, (Tua Tagovailoa) Randy Sartin, (Ian Book) Matt Cashore, (Baker Mayfield) Tim Heitman, (Trevor Lawrence) Kyle Terada, (Urban Meyer) Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews

Now that we know how the College Football Playoff committee has gone through its process through the first seven years of this grand experiment, what if we took all the precedents and thoughts and applied them to all 28 teams that made it into the tournament?

There’s obviously a reason why some teams are ranked where they were in a given season, but the criteria has changed a wee bit here and there – the CFP really likes the four best teams belief – so there’s some adjusting to do.

So let’s say the committee had to seed all 28 teams from 2014 to 2020. How would it rank them?

One key note: pretend we don’t know what actually happens in any of the playoffs. Forget about the results, as amazing or ugly as they might have been. This is strictly going on the merits of each team at the end of each regular season.

One other rule – this goes by what the committee did in each year. So 2020 Ohio State – ranked third in the final CFP ranking – has to be ranked ahead of 2020 Notre Dame, who was ranked fourth.

Again, this is our projection of what this would be. This isn’t from the College Football Playoff.

The all-time College Football Playoff top 28 would be (again, remember, we don’t know how this all turns out in each of the respective College Football Playoffs) …

The (#) after each team is the final College Football Playoff ranking in a given year.

28. 2020 Notre Dame (10-1)

The Case For: The Fighting Irish got to the ACC Championship at 10-0 with a win over then-unbeaten (2) Clemson as – technically – the strongest regular season win by anyone e in the 2020 regular season.

That was good, but the 31-17 win on the road over a tough (13) North Carolina team helped to just enough to overcome several issues. There weren’t too many other amazing wins, there were a whole bunch of victories over soft teams, and …

The Case Against: Clemson 34, Notre Dame 10. Clemson was without star QB Trevor Lawrence – although, his fill-in, DJ Uiagalelei, was fantastic – and were beaten up on the defensive front in the loss to the Irish, but everything worked just fine in the ACC Championship. The Irish looked totally outclassed in, arguably, the worst loss by any team to make it into the College Football Playoff.

Final Decision: There are teams that didn’t win their own divisions that still make this list, but no team had lost its conference championship and got the call. The overall body of work is fine, but there were just four wins over teams that finished with winning records, and that ACC Championship was ugly.


27. 2020 Ohio State (6-0)

The Case For: In a tough year with nothing normal and everything trying just to keep the car on the road, Ohio State turned out to be one of just two Power Five teams to go unbeaten and win a conference championship.

Even with a slew of missing players at various times, and despite being without key parts late in the season, the Buckeyes still won’t the Big Ten title, handed (11) Indiana its only loss, and …

The Case Against: The six-win schedule is way light, and it took a special ruling by the Big Ten just to get the team into the Big Ten Championship. Yes, the team had a whole lot of issues with health, but it still didn’t look all that great against a totally mediocre slate. The wins over IU and (14) Northwestern were the only two against teams that finished with a winning record.

Final Decision: 2020 was such a rough year, this is about giving a super-talented team a break, even with only six wins and none of them all that great. In the end, the Buckeyes were an unbeaten Power Five champion no matter how rocky things looked. The precedent when it comes to the 0 in the loss column holds.


26. 2016 Washington (12-1)

The Case For: The Pac-12 Championship meant just about everything to the Huskies’ case. They didn’t just beat Colorado (10), they brought a 41-10 stomping.

The Huskies looked like the real deal on both sides of the ball for most of the year, destroying Christian McCaffrey and Stanford (18) 44-6, and rolling through Utah (19) on the road.

The Case Against: The resumé stinks. The Pac-12 was awful in 2016, and the UW non-conference schedule was worse, facing Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. The hottest team going was USC (9), and Washington didn’t just lose, it lost at home 26-13.

Final Decision: The speed and talent are there, but the resumé wins aren’t. There wasn’t anything in non-conference play to get excited about.

Okay, What Happened? College Football Playoff Results: (1) Alabama 24, (4) Washington 7 (semifinal)


25. 2017 Alabama (11-1)

The Case For: There’s a whole lot of talent on both sides of the ball. When it was focused and rose up from time to time – like against Ole Miss in a 66-3 win – it was fantastic.

The Crimson Tide ended up beating six bowl teams including LSU (17) and Mississippi State (23). Crushing Fresno State 41-10 turned out to be a far better than it looked at the time.

The Case Against: Where were the big wins? The Crimson Tide struggled against a mediocre Texas A&M, it was just okay against LSU and Mississippi State, and while beating Florida State was good, that turned out to be a way overrated Seminole squad. Throw in the double-digit loss to Auburn – the one good team on the slate – and there’s nothing here.

And, of course, there’s the huge problem of not winning a division or a conference championship in a down year for the SEC – Auburn won the West and Georgia won the conference.

Final Decision: On talent and reputation, the Crimson Tide could hang with anyone, and they could certainly get hot and win two games against anyone on this list. But based on eye test and resumé, this team is just okay compared to some of Nick Saban’s juggernauts.

Okay, What Happened? College Football Playoff Results: (4) Alabama 24, (1) Clemson 6 (semifinal);  (4) Alabama 26, (3) Georgia 23 (OT) (National Championship)

All-Time College Football Playoff Top 28 Projection 
1-4 | 5-8 | 9-12 | 13-16 | 17-20 | 21-24

NEXT: College Football Playoff All-Time Projection: Top 24

The 2021 College Football Playoff is set

The CFP selection committee releases their fifth and final edition of the 2021 College Football Playoff Rankings.

The final rankings for the 2021 College Football Playoff are officially locked in.

The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) will face the No. 2 Clemson Tigers (10-1) in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, while the No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) will play the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-0) in the Capital One Rose Bowl Game.

The first two teams left out were No. 5 Texas A&M (8-1) and No. 6 Oklahoma (8-2).

Yesterday, on championship Saturday, Alabama and Ohio State secured SEC and Big Ten championships in much closer games than expected.  Even with the close games, that pretty much locked those two into playoff spots.

Clemson handed Notre Dame its first loss of this season as the Tigers went on to win the ACC Championship Game.  The game was a blowout in favor of Clemson by 24 points and caused the Irish to drop two spots.

The biggest question marks on the final rankings are Texas A&M and Cincinnati.  Jimbo fisher’s Aggies had a whopping victory over Tennessee, while Cincinnati took down Tulsa to win the AAC Championship.

Cincinnati finished the season undefeated but were left out of the top-6, having many fans outraged with the selection committee’s decisions.  The biggest argument is that these non power-5 conferences will never have a shot of making it into the top-4.  Cincinnati actually dropped in the rankings in weeks that they didn’t even play leading up to the fifth and final CFP Rankings.

Texas A&M only dropped one game to the Crimson Tide in the second game of the year, having their fans scratching their heads at what Notre Dame was still doing there following a blowout loss to Clemson.

Regardless of what fans, coaches, players and analysts say, the committee’s decisions are final.  The seventh edition of the College Football Playoff is set to kickoff January 1st, 2021.