The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2021 will come out Tuesday night, November 2nd. How should the committee rank the top 25?
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College Football Playoff: Helping The Committee With The Top 25
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Predicting the first CFP Top 25
College Football Playoff Chase: Who’s alive?
The College Football Playoff rankings season is finally here.
The committee will get together, there will be snacks, they’ll do what they do – all without the slightest bit of transparency – and then the top 25 will be unveiled.
Finally, these are the rankings that matter … sort of. This is all just a fun exercise until the final College Football Playoff rankings come out right after the conference championships.
I’ve been in the room in Grapevine, Texas, I’ve been through the process, and I’ve worked with this operation and know how this group makes the sausage. For all the criticism, and hollering, and anger from the fan bases, start with this …
The process is meticulous, and everyone is 100% totally sincere in trying to create the best ranking possible.
This isn’t like the other ranking systems that are thrown together on a late Saturday night. The committee debates and discusses each and every one of the spots, starting at 25 all the way down to No. 1. There will be mistakes, and there will be inconsistencies, but at the very least there’s a rationale behind every slot.
No, there is no agenda like some think there is. They legitimately want the four best teams in the College Football Playoff, no matter what.
Now, is this silly that college football bases its playoff system on the whims of a panel of judges? Of course. But for now, this is what we’ve got.
I’m going to tell the College Football Playoff committee what the top 25 should be – by the way, it’s beyond ridiculous that there’s no media member or someone who follows college football for a living on the panel.
Before getting going and before these come out for real, remember …
1. These rankings are just a snapshot. They’re thrown out and done all over again next week.
2. There aren’t any rules. The committee can pick anyone it wants to. And …
3. And I can’t stress this enough, DON’T GET INTO A TWIST over the rankings. Again, wait until the entire season is done. At that point the committee cares about two things – did you win your Power Five conference championship, and did you do it with no more than one loss? That’s the baseline for everything else.
These isn’t the prediction and projection of the first round of College Football Playoff rankings – that’s this. This is me telling the committee what to do – no, this group hasn’t seen all the teams and all the games because they have real lives and jobs that actually matter.
I do, however, try to keep this within the framework of how the commitee rolls. It LOVES big wins, and while it doesn’t punish losses to great teams, it doesn’t give enough credit to Team A for playing Alabama on the same day that Team B played Central Cupcake Tech.
One last thing – the committee uses its own proprietary stat system. Other rankings and other metrics don’t exist in their world.
So if I may be so forward, College Football Playoff committee, this is what your first top 25 should be.
College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done, November 2
25. Pitt Panthers (6-2)
The Case For This Spot: There actually isn’t anything that great to point to, and the 44-41 loss to Western Michigan is an anchor, but there’s something to be said for being the first team since 2014 Georgia Tech to beat Clemson by double-digits in the regular season.
The Panthers also won at Tennessee, and the wins at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are good enough to matter.
Win That Matters: Pitt 27, Clemson 17
Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Western Michigan 44, Pitt 41
Up Next: at Duke
24. Houston Cougars (7-1)
The Case For This Spot: Here’s the deal I’ll make with you, College Football Playoff committee. I’ll indulge your love of rewarding teams with one big win – Houston just handed SMU its first loss of the season – if you’ll at least listen to my argument about 17, 19, and 20.
The Cougars lost to Texas Tech by 17 and haven’t beaten anyone other than an SMU team that beat absolutely no one other than a bad TCU.
Win That Matters: Houston 44, SMU 37
Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Texas Tech 38, Houston 21
Up Next: at USF
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
The Case For This Spot: There’s enough there with wins over Iowa State and Maryland on the road and the home victory over Penn State to put the Hawkeyes somewhere in the top 25.
However, the offense is bad when the defense isn’t taking the ball away, and losing to Purdue and Wisconsin by a combined score of 51-14 over the last two weeks is the sort of trend-down thing the committee doesn’t dig.
Win That Matters: Iowa 23, Penn State 20
Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Purdue 24, Iowa 7
Up Next: at Northwestern
22. Wisconsin Badgers (5-3)
The Case For This Spot: The Badger offense has been BRUTAL at times, but the committee is going to give credit to the nation’s No. 1 defense – at least statistically – against, technically, one of the nation’s toughest schedules.
The losses to Notre Dame, Michigan, and Penn State will be slightly forgivable, and the wins over Army, Purdue, and Iowa will trend the team up just enough that it should slip into the top 25.
Win That Matters: Wisconsin 27, Iowa 7
Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Penn State 16, Wisconsin 10
Up Next: at Rutgers
21. Fresno State Bulldogs (7-2)
The Case For This Spot: This is my ultra-pretentious How Much Does The College Football Playoff Committee Actually Know test, Part 1
Fresno State lost at Hawaii – which in and of itself is always a quirky road game, finishing about 3 am ET – but it was way banged up before getting a two-week break. The other loss? At Oregon 31-24.
That loss, though, to the Rainbow Warriors with a backup quarterback is enough to put Fresno State a bit lower. However, it just handed San Diego State its first loss of the season, and it beat a fabulous Nevada team the week before that. Throw in the win over UCLA on the road, and this is a sneaky-good top 20ish team.
Win That Matters: Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20
Loss (or bad performance) That Matters: Hawaii 27, Fresno State 24
Up Next: Boise State
NEXT: College Football Playoff Rankings: How The Top 25 Should Be Done – Top 20
